by Will Thurmond (Emerging Markets) Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. (249 pages, September 2021) provides a detailed analysis and outlook for low-carbon feedstock availability, and a feasibility assessment for technology commercialization pathways in sustainable aviation fuels and low-carbon renewable diesel production.
1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL
1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities
1.1.1. Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe, Americas, Asia
1.1.2. Sustainable Aviation Initiatives for CORSIA (U.N.) Program
1.1.3. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations
1.1.4. Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets like California
1.2 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to Producers
1.2.1 Change and Transition from 2020 Targets to 2030 COP26 GHG Targets
1.2.2 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Bio/Renewable Diesel (California, EU, Canada)
1.2.3 New GHG Targets Bring Challenges to 1st Generation Biodiesel Producers (Soy, Palm)
1.2.4 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated Parties
2. SUMMARY OF GLOBAL RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION
2.1 Review of Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections
2.2 Analysis of Global Renewable Diesel Production by Region, Location and Capacity
2.3 Top 10 Global Renewable Diesel Producers – by Production Volumes
2.4 Existing Global Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021
2.5 Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansions by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021
2.6 New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, Gallons, Location, 2021
3. EUROPE – DEMAND DRIVERS
3.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country
3.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel Production Based on COP21 Targets for GHG to 2030
3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel Production by Project
3.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production 2011-2021
4. EUROPE- CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS, AND REFINERIES, BY COUNTRY
Each producer site case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans
4.1 DENMARK
Neste (Rotterdam, RD/SAF, 345mgy or 1.15 million MT, 2021 Expansion to 2 million MT)
4.2 FINLAND
Neste (Finland, RD/SAF, 270mgy or 440k MT, 2021 Expansion)
UPM BioVerno (RD/SAF, 35mgy or 100k MT, Feedstock: tall Crude Oil, Lappeenranta, 2021: operating)
UPM (Kotka, RD/SAF. 137mgy or 300k MT, Feedstock: Tall Crude Oil, 2021: planning for 2025 production)
ST.1 Finland (RD/SAF, 55mgy or 200k MT, waste oils, 2021 :operating)
4.3 ITALY
ENI Venice (165mgy or 350k MT, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 2021 expanding to 600k MT)
ENI Sicily (Gela Plant Expansion, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 206mgy or 600k MT, 2021 operating)
4.4 FRANCE
Total LaMede (RD/SAF, 150mgy or 500k MT, waste and plant oils, La Mede, 2021 operating)
Total Grandpuits (RD/SAF/Naptha, 93mgy or 400k MT, waste and plant oils, Paris/Seine, 2021 announced)
4.5 SWEDEN
Preem Gothenburg (RD, 250mgy, FOGs, 2021 Operating)
Preem, Sunpine (Gothenburg, HTopsoe, 16,000bpd)
Preem Setra (RD, 8mgy, Woody Biomass, 2021 Construction)
4.6 NETHERLANDS
Empyro Hengelo (5mgy, RD/SAF, Upgraded Pyrolysis Oils, Hengelo, Neth, Operating 2021)
SkyNRG (28mgy, SAF, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2021 planning)
4.7 UNITED KINGDOM
Philips 66 Humber (RD/SAF, 46mgy, Humber, England, 2024 expansion to 80mgy)
4.8 SPAIN
Repsol (2021: under construction, 2023: opening at 250MT, 2030: expansion to 600MT)
Cepsa
4.9 PORTUGAL
Galp
4.10 POLAND
PKN Orlen (300k MT/yr, 2021: under construction, 2025: plans to open)
5. USA – DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS
5.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022
5.2 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2012-2030. Target = 20% by 2030
5.3. Oregon Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 10% by 2025, TBD by 2030
5.4 Washington Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 8.5% by 2030
5.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030
5.6 Neighboring Canada’s Expected Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 12.9% by 2030
5.7 US States with Volumetric Targets (Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, etc)
6. USA – CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS
Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in the development of more than 29 renewable diesel projects in North America, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America.
Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans
6.1 Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling w UOP tech, 675mgy, Norco, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion)
6.2 REG Geismar (75mgy operating 2021, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion to 340mgy)
6.3 World Energy (RD/SAF, operating, w expansion to 360mgy in 2022, Los Angeles, US)
6.4 Emerald Biofuels (w UOP Tech, 110mgy, Port Arthur, Texas, US, 2021 planning)
6.5 Kern Oil and Refining (California, USA)
6.6 BP Cherry Point (RD/SAF from waste FOG, 42mgy, Birch Bay, Washington, op in 2021)
6.7 Ryze Renewables Las Vegas (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)
6.8 Ryze Renewables Reno (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)
6.9 NEXT Renewable Fuels (RD/SAF, 765mgy, Port of Columbia, Oregon, 2021 planning)
6.10 Marathon (RD/SAF, 183 million gallons/yr, Dickinson, North Dakota, 2021 conversion)
6.11 Holly Frontier Cheyenne (RD, 200 million gallons/yr, Cheyenne, Wyoming, 2021 conversion)
6.12 Global Clean Energy – Exxon (125mgy, 7500 to 15,000 bpd, Bakersfield, California, 2021 conversion)
6.13 Philips 66 Rodeo (RD/SAF, 800mgy, Rodeo, California w Worley, 2021 planning)
6.14 Wyoming Renewable Diesel ( )
6.15 CVR Energy (Wynnewood, Oklahoma Q3 2021)
6.16 St Joseph Renewable Fuels (RD/Naptha, 90mgy, Waste Oils, Illinois. 2021 planning)
6.17 Diamond Green Diesel – Port Arthur (Valero/Darling wUOPtech, 470mgy, Texas. 2021 construction)
6.18 East Kansas Agri-Energy (RD, 5mgy, DCO oil, Nextchem/Saola tech, Garnett, Kansas, 2021 operating)
6.19 Aemetis Carbon Zero 1 Project (RD/SAF/RNG/CCS, 45mgy, Riverbank, California, 2021 construction)
6.20 Gevo: Net Zero 1 (RD/SAF/RNG/Feed, 45mgy, California, est. 4Q 2021)
6.21 Seabord Energy (former Abengoa, 6500bpd/85mgy, Hugoton, Kansas, est. Dec. 2021)
6.22 Heartwell Renewables (Love’s-Musket-Trillium/Cargill, Tallow, 80mgy, Nebraska)
6.23 Gron Fuels (w/Koch, 900 million gallons/year, Port Charles in Baton-Rouge, Louisiana, 2021 planning)
6.24 Calumet (Great Falls Refinery (10 to 12,000bpd, Great Falls, Montana est 2022)
6.3 CANADA
LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS
6.3.1 Canada’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Target = 12.9% by 2030
6.3.2 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030
RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES
6.3.3 Covenant Energy (RD/SAF. 6500bpd, 300mliters/yr, Canola, Saskatchewan, est 2023)
6.3.4 Tidewater (3000bpd w HTopsoe, Prince Georges refinery, British Columbia, est 2022+)
6.3.5 Cielo Alberta (RD, 30mgy, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, 2021 planning)
6.3.6 Ensyn Ontario (3mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel from Pyrolysis, 2021 operating)
6.3.7 Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec (10mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel, Pyrolysis, 2021 construction)
6.4 SOUTH AMERICA
6.4.1 PARAGUAY
Omega Green (RD/SAF, 400mgy, BSBios/Paraguay, $800million est, 2024 Startup)
6.4.3 BOLIVIA
Government/Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership,
Guillermo Elder Bell refinery ($250million, 9,000bpd or 3 million barrels/yr)
6.4 ASIA
6.4.1 SINGAPORE
Neste (RD/SAF, 2020: 675 mgy or 1.3 million MT/yr, 2025 expansion to 2.7 million MT/yr)
6.4.2 INDONESIA
Pertamina Plaju refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 307 mgy or 20,000bpd, plant oils, 2023 startup)
Cilacap Refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 92mgy or 6,000bpd, 2022 announcement)
6.4.3 CHINA
Total (120k MT/yr, new project)
Eco Biochemical (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Hunanyu (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Changyou Bioenergy (200k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Yangzou Jianyuan (100k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
7. FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION
Each feedstock section Includes an Introduction, Markets, Consumption, Outlook, and Examples in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production
7.1 First Generation Vegetable Oils
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production
7.1.1 Soybean Oil
7.1.2 Rapeseed Oil
7.1.3 Palm Oil
7.1.4 Canola Oil
7.1.5 Sunflower Oil
7.2 Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and Greases
7.2.1 Used Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease
7.2.2 Poultry Fat
7.2.3 Beef Tallow
7.2.4 Pork – White Grease
7.2.5 Brown Grease
7.2.6 Trap Grease
7.3 Third Generation Energy Crops From Non-Food Sources
7.3.1 DCO – Distiller’s Corn Oil
7.3.2 Rotational Crops: Carinata, Camelina, Pennycress
7.3.3 Tall Oils from Forestry
7.3.4 Pongamia
7.3.5 Castor
7.3.6 Tobacco Oils
7.3.7 Hemp
7.3.8 Winter Oilseeds
7.3.9 Jatropha
7.3.10 Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia
7.4 Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues
7.4.1 Wood and Forestry Residues
7.4.2 Sawmill Residues and Sawdust
7.4.3 Municipal Solid Waste
7.4.4 Bagasse
7.4.5 Corn Stover
7.4.6 Rice Husks
7.4.7 Almond and Nut Shells
8 TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF
8.1 Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)
8.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing
8.3 Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing
8.4 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers
8.5 Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for Up-Grading into Renewable Diesel & Jet Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, ATJ, and other TRL Level 5+ Players
8.6 Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel and SAF
8.6.1 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock
8.6.2 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA
8.6.3 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass
9. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS
The Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. study also focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuels in detail, providing case studies of producers and the low-carbon feedstocks, technology pathways, partnerships, investors, and off-takers.
9.1 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION – MARKETS
9.1.1 Global Policies and Targets – U.N. and C.O.R.S.I.A
9.1.2 Regional Aviation Policies and Targets – EU RED2
9.1.3 National Aviation Policies and Targets -US RFS, Canada CFS, C.O.R.S.I.A’s member countries & targets
9.1.4 Key Organizations in Sustainable Aviation
9.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCERS, PROJECTS & VOLUMES TO 2025
9.2.1 World Energy, Paramount, 25 Million Gallons/Year in 2020
9.2.2 Neste, Porvoo, 34 Million Gallons/Year in 2020
9.2.3 Gevo, Silsbee, Texas, Demonstration Project in 2020
9.2.4 Total, La Mede, France, SAF Demonstration & Production in 2020
9.2.5 Fulcrum, Sierra, Nevada, 7 Million Gallons/Year in 2021
9.2.6 RedRock, Lakeview, Colorade, 6 Million Gallons/Year in 2021
9.2.7 Neste, Singapore & Rotterdam, 481 Million Gallons/Year in 2022-23
9.2.8 SkyNRG, Delfzijl, 33 Million Gallons/Year in 2022
9.2.9 GoSunshine, New Orleans, 29 Million Gallons/Year in 2022
9.2.10 Fulcrum, Gary, Indiana, 21 Million Gallons/Year in 2023
9.2.11 ReadiFuels, 2 Locations, 24 Million Gallons/Year in 2023
9.2.12 Preem, Gothenburg, Sweden 70 Million Gallons/Year in 2024
9.2.13 Lanzatech, Four Locations in Production, 100 Million Gallons/Year in 2024
9.2.14 Velocycs, Immingham, England, 20 Million Gallons/Year in 2025
9.3 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS
9.3.1 Sustainable Aviation Goals and Targets by Country, Organization, Timeline
9.3.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast From 2015 to 2055 based on IEA, ICAO
9.3.3 Estimated EU Bio-Based Aviation Fuel Production 2017-2025 at 15% Blend Rates
9.3.4 Investment Risk Outlook & Volume of Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2015 to 2030 to 2050
9.3.5 De-Risking Start Up CAPEX & OPEX Costs With Low Cost Feedstocks & Long-Term Partnerships
10. RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS TO 2030
10.1 Short Term Forecasts to 2022, Reviews and Outlook
10.2 Medium Term Forecasts to 2025, Reviews and Outlook
10.3 Long term Forecasts to 2030, Reviews and Outlook
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