SAF Could Make up 5.5% of 2030 EU Jet Fuel Demand with Targeted Support, Estimates ICCT Feedstock Study

(GreenAir Online) Analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shows there are sufficient sources of sustainable feedstock to support the production of 3.4 million tonnes (Mt) of advanced sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) annually in the EU by 2030, around 5.5% of projected EU jet fuel demand. Waste oils is the most technically mature SAF pathway at present and could produce up to 2% of the share although this resource is highly constrained and largely consumed by the road sector. Moving beyond 2% of SAF deployment will require targeted support by the EU for more conversion pathways such as lignocellulosic biofuels and electrofuels, which come with more challenging economics and uncertain production timelines, says ICCT. Current volumes of SAF are below 0.1% of EU annual jet fuel consumption. The European aviation industry’s recent Destination 2050 roadmap estimates SAF deployment of 3 Mt in 2030, rising to 32 Mt – equal to 83% of total jet kerosene consumption – in 2050 if given strong political support.

Ahead of the forthcoming launch by the European Commission’s ReFuel EU Aviation policy initiative, the study by ICCT evaluates the resource base that could support SAF production in the EU from 2025 to 2035, focusing only on the potential volumes available from sustainably available feedstocks. It also takes into account sustainable harvesting limits, existing other uses of feedstock materials and SAF conversion yields.

Deploying SAF requires overcoming even greater economic and technological constraints than deploying alternative fuels to the road sector, cautions the study. The vast majority of biofuels up till now have come from first-generation, food-based production, although the EU is transitioning away from these fuels. By targeting the deployment of advanced SAFs from non-food feedstocks early on, the developing SAF industry can avoid the controversies around food-based biofuels, it argues, although there will be limiting factors around economic viability, feedstock supply and pace of technology advances.

ICCT estimates 76.5 Mt of feedstocks from agricultural residues, 5.1 Mt from forestry residues and 21.2 Mt of municipal and industrial waste will be available for biofuel production in 2030.

Cover crops, which are grown during the winter and harvested in the spring before sowing of principal crops, could also provide additional feedstock for SAF production, though their future contribution is uncertain. Cover cropping is relatively uncommon in Europe so in theory there is the possibility to expand the practice without substantial negative environmental or market impacts. Potential cover crops could include oilseeds such as rapeseed and carinata. ICCT estimates cover crops could provide an additional 7.15 Mt of lignocellulosic feedstocks for SAF production in 2030.

The study also looks at non-biological pathways for producing SAF such as electrofuels (e-fuels), also called power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels. This is a potentially low-carbon yet resource-intensive pathway involving splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis, with the hydrogen then synthesised in a reactor with carbon dioxide to produce liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons or alcohols. To ensure these fuels are both sustainable and low-carbon, renewable electricity used in SAF production should not be diverted from other uses. READ MORE