Are We Finally at a Tipping Point for Sustainable Aviation Fuel?

June 06, 2025

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by Tina Casey (Triple Pundit) Sustainable aviation fuel accounted for less than 0.15 percent of total fuel used among 77 leading airlines last year, but new supplies could soon change that. -- ... Bio-based sustainable aviation fuel offers the potential for more rapid scale-up because it can be blended with conventional jet fuel for use in existing aircraft and fueling infrastructure. Until recently, sustainable aviation fuel was only available in limited quantities, but new supplies may soon change that.

The slow pace of sustainable aviation fuel uptake

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) stakeholders have experimented with many different kinds of bio-based sources since the early 2000s, including algae, food waste, and agricultural and forest waste, along with cultivated energy crops including oilseeds and grasses as well as corn and soy.

But progress is moving at a snail’s pace.

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In the meantime, United advises that “production remains very limited,” and very expensive as well, and the airline is not alone. Sustainable aviation fuel accounted for less than 0.15 percent of the total fuel used among 77 leading airlines last year, according to a survey from the European organization Transport & Environment.

Corn, soy oil, and other cultivated crops accounted for more than 30 percent of the sustainable aviation fuel used among the airlines T&E surveyed, ....

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The electrofuels solution

Electrofuels are an alternative solution that is gaining ground. Sometimes called solar fuels or e-fuels, electrofuels are synthetic hydrocarbon fuels produced by deploying electricity — ideally from solar power or other renewable resources — to separate green hydrogen gas from water. The hydrogen is then combined with captured carbon to create new fuels that are chemically identical to fossil-sourced fuels, meaning they can be used on their own on a drop-in basis instead of blending with conventional jet fuels.

Although cost is an obstacle, some analysts project the price of green hydrogen will dip to a competitive level by 2030.

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With additional funding in hand, Twelve plans to begin producing fuel at a plant in Moses Lake, Washington, later this year and aims for an output of 50,000 gallons annually.

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Bio-based sustainable aviation fuel ventures also continue to attract investors and public funding.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently noted a sharp increase in production of what it classifies as "Other Biofuels," which practically doubled from December 2024 to February 2025. “Other Biofuels” include renewable heating oil and emerging biofuels, but the EIA notes that sustainable aviation fuel is beginning to dominate the category, making it a useful indication of activity in this sector. “With [sustainable aviation fuel] production capacity now around 30,000 [barrels per day] and growing in 2025, SAF will likely drive significant growth ... and make up most of U.S. Other Biofuels production,” EIA reported.

Among the recent projects the agency highlighted is a 15,000 barrel-per-day facility in Texas under the umbrella of Diamond Green Diesel, a joint venture of Valero Energy and the firm Darling Ingredients, which focuses on producing biofuels from animal fats, used cooking oil and food waste among other sources.

Another newly operational project comes from New Rise Renewables, which converted a former biodiesel operation in Nevada to produce sustainable aviation fuel. The company, a branch of the firm XCF Global, began producing fuel at the facility in February at a rate of 3,000 barrels per day. XCF says a third-party buyer has already contracted for more than 3 million gallons.

Meanwhile, the Montana Renewables branch of Calumet is now producing sustainable aviation fuel at its facility in Great Falls, Montana. “Montana Renewables expects to reach 120- to 150-million-gallon SAF capacity sooner than previously reported for a fraction of the cost,” Calumet reported in May, citing its experience over the past two years as the main factor enabling the facility to expand while cutting costs. The company says it's on track to reach a capacity of up to 300 million gallons per year by 2028. READ MORE

Related articles

Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 (World Economic Forum)
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Faces Uphill Battle To Become Mainstream (OilPrice.com)
SkyNRG: Market Outlook of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (Zhejiang University International Consultant Committee of Waste to Energy)
SkyNRG releases Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2024 (SkyNRG)
SkyNRG & ICF release Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2025 (SkyNRG)
Sustainable Aviation Futures Congress interview with SkyNRG CCO, Theye Veen (Sustainabil Aviation Futures VIDEO)

Excerpt from World Economic Forum: Aviation’s journey towards net zero faces numerous economic, technological and geopolitical risks, but the main challenge for 2025 is the availability and cost of sustainable aviation fuel. READ MORE

Excerpt from OilPrice.com:

Last year, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tons, double the 500,000 tons produced in 2023. However, SAF accounted for just 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel.
Clean jet fuel, which can be made from used cooking oil, wastes, or plants, reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 80%, the aviation industry says.
With the fuel so expensive that it’s impossible to compete with jet fuel made from petroleum, the nascent SAF industry faces challenges at the start of the supply chain. READ MORE

Excerpt from Zhejiang University International Consultant Committee of Waste to Energy:

3. Development dilemma

According to the report, the deployment of SAF is limited by the development, mainly the investment in SAF infrastructure construction. To meet the production demand of 250 million tons of SAF, 500-800 SAF facilities need to be built. Each facility needs to invest $2 billion, which means that the accumulated investment will exceed $1 trillion. This is equivalent to an average annual capital expenditure of $4 billion from 2025 to 2050, which is roughly equivalent to 8% of the global annual oil and gas capital expenditure in 2019.

The main challenges in the future development also include the uncertainty of raw material supply, especially the difference of green hydrogen and biomass supply in different regions and time periods; Large-scale capital investment is needed to build and operate SAF production facilities; The development of new technology and the improvement of existing technology need a lot of R&D investment and time; And the need for clear and consistent policy support to promote the development and promotion of SAF.

Source:

1.https://skynrg.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SAF-Market-Outlook-2024-Summary.pdf

2.https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x1xt4gofBAAIzE1ixXKOeg

READ MORE

Excerpt from SkyNRG 2024: Voluntary demand signals have continued to strengthen, with multiple airlines, cargo companies, and corporates setting ambitious SAF targets. These will amount to some 12 Mt (4.0 Bgal) by 2030, with overlap in the regulatory market. These purchases have been crucial to market growth over the past years, but must now translate into reliable, longer-term commitments to attract capacity above regulatory obligations.

Current global capacity announcements are dominated by the HEFA pathway, which represents ~85% of announced capacity in 2030. While co-processing makes up a smaller fraction of public announcements, we expect more projects to materialize given favorable economics and low complexity.

Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) facility announcements have increased to ~8% of announced 2030 capacity, supported by the commissioning of the first commercial-scale facility and clarifications to US federal tax credit greenhouse gas (GHG) methodology. All other technologies (including Fischer Tropsch, e-SAF, and others) remain a minority of announced capacity, at ~7% of 2030 capacity.

A possible stronger push for advanced pathways can be found in the increase of SAF as a globally tradeable commodity. Regions that have historically been significant exporters of feedstock, such as China and Brazil, are now looking to move up the value chain and produce renewable fuels. If mandate discussions around the world progress, particularly in China, this could restrict access to UCO, tallow and palm residue feedstock READ MORE

Excerpt from SkyNRG 2025:

‘HEFA tipping point’ in sight, after 2030, demand is set to outpace the HEFA SAF production potential, urging the industry to shift towards a more diversified set of SAF policies and pathways
Beyond 2030, SAF demand is expected to nearly triple to 40 Mt (13.2Bgal) by 2035, driven by accelerated mandates. With expected SAF capacity being 18 Mt (6 Bgal) in 2030, this creates a 26 Mt (8.6 Bgal) gap to be addressed in just five years. Co-processing and renewable diesel is expected to contribute up to 6 Mt (2 Bgal), but the majority will need to come from additional capacity
Supplied volumes doubled to 1 Mt (0.3 Bgal) in 2024 compared to 2023 levels, the EU and UK mandates started in January 2025, and approximately 60 airlines set specific SAF targets for 2030. As investment continues to flow into the industry, SAF is strengthening its role as the cornerstone for the decarbonization of the aviation industry.

5 June, 2025 Amsterdam – SkyNRG releases fifth Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Outlook, developed in close collaboration with ICF today. This year’s edition highlights both the progress made and the important steps still needed to ensure a resilient, scalable SAF industry capable of meeting long-term decarbonization goals.

“It is with great pride that we present SkyNRG’s fifth Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Outlook,” said Maarten van Dijk, CEO and Co-founder of SkyNRG. “This year’s edition is particularly special, as it has been developed in close collaboration with ICF. While the report continues to guide our internal strategy, we also hope it contributes to broader market understanding and momentum.”

Key findings and outlook

The SAF market is experiencing a period of rapid development. In 2024, supplied volumes doubled from the previous year. The start of the EU and UK SAF mandates in January 2025 marked a critical step, with projected global demand reaching approximately 2 million tonnes this year.

Looking ahead to 2030, demand could rise to over 15 million tonnes, with significant contributions from both mandated and voluntary commitments. However, the report also highlights that nearly 82% of current SAF capacity relies on HEFA technology, which is limited by available feedstocks. This indicates a need to scale up alternative technologies and feedstock pathways to meet future demand.

“To capture longer-term dynamics, we’ve extended our analysis to reflect what is needed through 2050,” van Dijk added. “Robust policy frameworks and targeted support, for offtakers, technology developers, and infrastructure players are essential to keep SAF growth on track.”

Collaborative industry insight

Dan Galpin, Global Aviation Lead at ICF, emphasized the collaborative nature of this year’s effort and the evolving landscape:

“It has been our pleasure to work with SkyNRG on this flagship SAF Market Outlook report. With mandates now in effect in the EU and UK, and more ambitious policies taking shape globally, the SAF market is entering a new phase. Hundreds of projects have been announced, showing strong confidence. Continued policy support remains key to realizing long-term goals.”

A strategic moment for SAF

The report’s findings underscore both the progress to date and the strategic opportunities ahead. As SAF demand is expected to nearly triple again between 2030 and 2035, achieving that growth will depend on expanded investment, supportive regulation, and supply chain coordination.

“The challenge is massive, but the rewards can be even bigger,” van Dijk concluded. “We hope you find this year’s Market Outlook insightful and engaging.” READ MORE

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White House water Washington used cooking oil (UCO) Transportation Fuels Policy Texas tallow Sustainability soybeans solar fuel palm waste oil seed crops Nevada Montana Jetfuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)) Investing Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen Price Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen HEFA (Hydro-processed esters and fatty acids) Grasses forest residue/waste food waste Fischer-Tropsch/FT environmental policy energy crops electrofuels (e-fuels) prices electrofuels (e-fuels) drop-in biofuels/hydrocarbons Department of Energy (DOE) corn/maize co-processing China carbon capture and utilization (CCU) Brazil BioRefineries/Renewable Fuel Production Biofuel Crops Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) aviation fuel (SAF) production aviation fuel (SAF) price animal fat algae alcohol-to-jet (ATJ)/ethanol-to-jet (ETJ) Agricultural waste/residue

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