by Al Greenwood (Independent Commodity Interlligence Services) Several US states could adopt restrictions on the sale of light vehicles that rely primarily on internal combustion engines (ICE), which would lower demand for liquid fuels while increasing demand for plastics and chemicals used to make electric vehicles (EVs).
- California is waiting on the federal government to grant it a waiver so it can adopt its Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulations. These would require auto companies to sell increasing shares of plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel-cell based vehicles.
- Non-plug-in hybrids and light vehicles powered by internal combustion engines would make up a shrinking share of the state’s auto sales, until they are prohibited in 2035.
- If California gets the waiver, seven other states could adopt the same restrictions on sales of hybrids and light vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). Another eight are in the process of adopting similar regulations.
- California has a separate programme for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles known as the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations.
HOW THE CALIFORNIA REGULATIONS WORK
California’s ACC II regulations work by requiring EVs, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids to make up an ever-increasing share of the state’s auto sales.
Plug-in hybrids are also known as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) because they rely primarily on electric power. Like an EV, the battery is so large in a PHEV, it needs to be plugged in a charging station for recharging, according to the US Department of Energy. The combustion engines of a plug-in hybrid kicks in only after the battery runs out of power.
The following chart shows the share of electric-based vehicles that would need to be sold in California by model year under the state’s ACC II regulations.
ZEV stands for zero-emission vehicle and includes EVs and vehicles with fuel cells
Source: California Air Resources Board
The regulations only restrict the sale of hybrids and light vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. They would not prevent people in California from owning such vehicles, and they can continue driving them and filling them up with gasoline or diesel, according to the California Air Resources Board.
NEXT STEPS FOR CALIFORNIA REGULATIONS
Before California can impose the sales restrictions, it needs a waiver from the federal government, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Clean Air Act requires California to receive authorisation from the federal government before it can adopt its own emission standards.
Already, the waiver is being opposed by some members in Congress.
A bill to prevent the EPA from granting the waiver was proposed by US Senators Markwayne Mullin (Republican-Oklahoma), Roger Marshall (Republican-Kansas) and Pete Ricketts (Republican-Nebraska). It is called the Preserving Choice in Vehicle Purchases Act.
A companion bill was introduced in the House of Representatives by Representative John Joyce (Republican-Pennsylvania).
The bill will unlikely become law because the Republican party lacks a majority in the Senate, and US President Joe Biden is a Democrat.
OTHER STATES FOLLOW CALIFORNIA
Other states can adopt auto emission regulations that are identical to those in California. These states do not need waivers from the federal government, so their regulations would take effect after California receives authorisation from the federal government.
The following seven states are set to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, if they have not done so already, according to the California Air Resources Board.
The percentage in parentheses represents the state’s share of new light-vehicle registrations in the US.
- Maryland (1.8%): The state governor announced that Maryland will adopt the ACC II regulations.
- Massachusetts (2.0%): The state adopted ACC II regulations.
- New York (5.7%): The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation adopted ACC II regulations.
- Oregon (1.1%): The state’s Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) adopted ACC II regulations.
- Vermont (0.3%): The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation adopted ACC II regulations.
- Virginia (2.2%): According to the AFPM, the state’s 2021 law requires it to adopt California’s ACC II regulations.
- Washington (1.9%): The state’s Department of Ecology adopted ACC II regulations.
These seven states and California (11.8%) make up 26.8% of the new light-vehicle registrations in the US.
STATUS OF OTHER STATES
An additional seven states have adopted various zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations based on those in California. These states are in various stages of approving ACC II regulations.
The following list shows the status of these states in regards to the ACC II regulations. The percentage in parentheses represents the state’s share of new light-vehicle registrations in the US.
- Colorado (1.8%): The state’s Air Quality Control Commission adopted the Colorado Clean Cars standard. This will gradually increase the share of zero-emission vehicles sold in the state until they reach 82% by model year 2032.
- Connecticut (1.0%): The state is proposing the same regulations as California’s ACC II.
According to the AFPM, public comments have concluded. - Maine (0.4%): Maine is considering the incorporation of California’s ACC II regulations.
- Minnesota (1.4%): The state adopted a clean-car programme in 2021, prior to California’s ACC II regulations.
It is unclear if Minnesota will start the process to adopt ACC II regulations. - Nevada (0.9%): Nevada adopted California’s earlier Advanced Clean Cars I (ACC I) regulations, which is based on a credit system.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that the state is starting the process to consider whether the state should adopt ACC II regulations. - New Jersey (3.3%): The governor has filed an ACC II proposal with the Office of Administrative Law.
According to the AFPM, public comments have just concluded. - New Mexico (0.5%): In July 2023, the governor said the state will move to adopt clean car regulations.
Although Delaware (0.3%), has not adopted California’s zero-emission-vehicle regulations, it is in the process of amending its low-emission vehicle programme on the model of California’s ACC II regulations, according to the state’s Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC).
Altogether, these 16 states make up more than 36% of new light-vehicle registrations in the US, according to the California Air Resources Board.
REACTION TO ACC II REGULATIONS
In January, the National Resource Defense Council (NRDC) said the ACC II standards can help states mitigate climate change, improve air quality and lower the cost of owning an automobile. It said the ACC II is a commonsense standard that is feasible, and zero-emission vehicles are becoming increasingly affordable.
The AFPM represents refiners and petrochemical producers. It said bans are expensive and inefficient. It said that markets – not government dictate – should determine whether a technology succeeds or fails.
“Restricting consumer choice by eliminating competition and banning entire vehicle power trains is the wrong path to a cleaner future,” the AFPM said.
The AFPM warned that the ACC II would increase costs for vehicles and electricity. The US is a minor player in the supply chains for the minerals, refining and batteries needed for EVs. A rapid switch to these vehicles could threaten energy security, the group said.
The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) represents ethanol producers. It said that it shares California’s goal of reducing emissions. However, it does not support prescriptive approaches that mandate specific technologies and that ignores other ways to reduce emissions, such as low-carbon fuels.
“We believe the best way to rapidly decarbonise the transportation sector is to set clear emissions reductions targets and then let the marketplace and consumers determine the most efficient and affordable ways of achieving those goals,” the group said. “RFA continues to encourage states that typically adopt California’s vehicle standards to think more broadly and carefully consider the dangers of putting all of their eggs into the electrification basket.”
EFFECTS ON US REFINERIES
The ACC II regulations could put financial pressure on US refiners if they reduce demand for fuels.
Refineries also produce feedstock uses to make base oils as well as petrochemicals such as propylene, benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). Policies that put stress on refiners could threaten the supplies of these products.
If oil demand declines because of the rising electrification of the nation’s auto fleet, then domestic oil production could slow down. Oil production is a significant source of ethane, the main feedstock used by crackers in the US.
RISING DEMAND FOR EV MATERIALS
Petrochemical producers can benefit from increasing demand for materials used in electric vehicles.
Orbia’s fluoromaterial subsidiary, Koura, is considering a project to produce lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), an electrolyte used in lithium-ion batteries. It would be the first plant of its kind in the US.
Another Orbia project would expand production of a feedstock used to make polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF). PVDF is used as a binder in lithium-ion batteries.
Celanese completed a large buildout of its capacity to produce ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), which is used in battery separators.
Polypropylene (PP) is the primary resin in battery packs, so increasing EV production could increase consumption of the resin in the world’s automobile industry.
Heat management and protection will require plastics such as nylon 6,6 that contain flame retardants.
Paints and coatings companies are developing EV products, such as dielectric powders and battery fire protection.
Automakers are eager to reduce the weight of EVs so they can go farther on a battery charge. That will increase demand for plastics and composites. READ MORE
Related articles
- Colorado passes mandate for 82% electric vehicle sales by 2032 Environmental groups wanted an extension to 100% EVs by 2035, but officials declare the state on track as EV sales hit 17% last quarter. (Colorado Sun)
- Colorado Adopts Clean Cars Standards, But Leaves Benefits On The Table (Clean Technica)
- Colorado Adopts Major Clean Car Standard To Curb Pollution (Sierra Club)
- Ohio legislation would stop mandatory EV buys (Mahoning Matters)
- Report: State to mandate that all new car sales be EVs by 2035 (Return on Information -- New Jersey)
- N.J. to require all new car sales to be electric by 2035 (NJ.com)
- New Jersey to phase out new gas-powered vehicles by 2035 (The Hill)
- Gov. Ned Lamont pulls plan to ban gas car sales by 2035: sources (WTNH; includes VIDEO)
- Plan to ban gas-powered cars in Connecticut appears to hit roadblock (NBC Connecticut)
- Facing defeat, Lamont withdraws regs phasing out new gas car sales -- Advocates will propose new legislation to keep CT on track to 2035 deadline for new car sales of only zero-emission vehicles (CT Mirror)
- Lawmakers seek new plan after plug pulled on proposal to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035 (NBC Connecticut)
- Dem governor withdraws electric vehicle mandate in stunning blow to environmentalists -- 'Common sense has prevailed,' says Connecticut Senate GOP leader (Fox News)
- After Connecticut’s EV Bill Failed, Gov. Lamont Looks for Other Ways (Governing)
- Connecticut Governor Withdraws Gas Car Ban Proposal, Facing Setback for Electric Vehicle Advocates (legallyspeakingworld.com)
- Conn. lawmakers seek compromise on switch to all-electric cars -- Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont earlier in the week withdrew proposed regulations that would have halted sales of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035. (Politico Pro Climatewire)
- Delaware Becomes 12th State to Adopt Clean Car Standards to Improve Public Health, Address Climate Change -- DE Adopts Advanced Clean Cars II Standard Through Model Year 2032, Not 2035 As Initially Proposed (Sierra Club)
- Youngkin yanks Virginia from California clean car program (Politico Pro)
- Youngkin says Virginia will not adopt California electric vehicle standard (The Hill)
Excerpt from Mahoning Matters: Senate passage and a signature from Gov. Mike DeWine are all that’s needed to stop the state from signing on to or taking steps to mandate emissions standards through emergency protocols established in the Clean Air Act of 1970.
“This legislation will prevent undue burdens on our residents, particularly those in low-income communities who may struggle with the higher costs of transitioning to electric vehicles,” said Rep. Brett Hillyer, R-Uhrichsville. “Ohio is not California and, therefore, should not be treated as such.”
...
It blocks the state from restricting the sale or use of a car based on how it’s powered. Ohio, unlike other states, has not implemented a zero-emission vehicle mandate.
...
Ford, GM and Honda all began to hit the breaks on electric vehicle projects, and Stellantis announced it wants to buy out half of its non-union workforce because of its transition to electric vehicles. Ford paused its $3.5B EV plant in Marshall, Michigan.
...
General Motors and Honda have canceled a program to sell EVs for around $30,000. READ MORE
Excerpt from Return on Information -- New Jersey: New Jersey officials are expected to file a new set of regulations Tuesday that will mandate that all new car sales be electric vehicles by 2035, according to a report by NJ Advance Media on Monday.
More than that, the rule is expected to say that 51% of all model year 2028 cars sold (they go on sale in 2027) must be EVs.
The push toward enforcing all-EV sales was expected — state officials have been offering the goal for months. A court appeal also is likely.
In addition, because the regulation is expected to be part of “Advanced Clean Cars II” filing, it could be adjusted — or overturned — by future administrations.
The regulation is expected to give annual increases in percentage of EV sales — jumping to 59% of 2029 year cars, then to 82% of 2032 year cars before hitting 100% in 2035.
There is plenty that still needs to be determined, including that:
- The state can’t force people to buy certain cars, so how they will enforce the percentage is unclear;
- The regulation, as of now, does not apply to the sale of used cars;
- The regulation cannot prevent someone from purchasing a car out of the state. READ MORE
Excerpt from WTNH: Gov. Ned Lamont is withdrawing his proposal to ban the sale of gas-powered cars in Connecticut by 2035, a move that opponents of the plan celebrated on Monday, according to legislative sources.
The Legislative Regulation Review Committee, which is made up of 14 lawmakers was set to have a hearing and vote on Tuesday regarding the ban on the sale of gas-powered cars in 2035.
On Monday afternoon, legislative sources told News 8 that the committee would hold off on the scheduled vote.
...
“This is victory for consumers who would have paid a big price tag for the state’s efforts to ban gas powered cars and trucks in the future,” Chris Herb, the president of the Connecticut Energy Markets Association. “However, the battle may not be over. It’s unclear what could happen next, but CEMA will continue to be vigilant in our opposition to this reckless policy. This is too much too fast, and we are not ready for an EV-only future.”
Republican leaders had been vocally opposed to the plan, which Lamont argued in August would lead to less pollution in the state and was “the right thing to do.”
Senate Republican Leader Kevin Kelly (R-Stratford) released the following statement in part below.
“The Governor’s decision to withdraw the regulations is a reasoned approach to address the growing concerns raised by working and middle class families. Adopting California emission standards which ban the sale of gas-powered cars is a substantial policy shift which must be decided by the General Assembly. There are too many questions regarding the capacity of our electric grid, the cost and location of grid improvements, and the negative impact on urban, rural and working poor families.”
State Sen. Stephen Harding (R-District 30), who is on the Connecticut General Assembly Environment Committee was planning to attend the vote. Harding said he supports moving toward electric-vehicle incentivization but believes banning gas-powered vehicle sales is taking it a step too far.
“If you think your electric rates are high now, wait till UI and Eversource start implementing the infrastructure to take this on,” Harding said. READ MORE
Excerpt from CT Mirror: A majority of the legislature’s Regulation Review Committee was poised to vote Tuesday to kill regulations prohibiting new gasoline-powered vehicle sales by 2035, forcing advocates and the administration of Gov. Ned Lamont to open talks on a new plan for passage by the full General Assembly in 2024.
Jonathan Dach, the governor’s chief of staff, said Monday that the administration reluctantly made the decision to withdraw the regulations after being told that opponents on the bipartisan committee had the votes to kill them and not merely reject them without prejudice, an action that would allow a later attempt at passage.
...
House Speaker Matt Ritter, D-Hartford, said one possibility was emulating New Mexico and Colorado, states that endorsed a transition to zero-emission vehicles, but included a commitment before then to assess their states’ progress towards establishing the necessary electric infrastructure. READ MORE
Excerpt from legallyspeakingworld.com: The challenge, however, lies in the apparent lack of enthusiasm among consumers for electric vehicles. Recent reports indicate that sales growth for battery-powered models has slowed, leading dealers to offer significant discounts on EVs. Even Tesla, a pioneer in the electric car market, has reportedly slashed prices due to decreased demand.
The chosen deadline of 2035 for the complete transition to electric vehicles has been criticized as unrealistic. Critics argue that it was arbitrarily set by Democrats without a solid foundation in the current adoption rate of EVs. The difficulty in garnering support for such measures in a traditionally Democratic stronghold like Connecticut suggests significant obstacles to achieving this ambitious goal.
While Governor Lamont remains determined to push for EV adoption, the current challenges indicate a need for a more nuanced and well-supported approach to ensure a successful transition to electric vehicles in Connecticut and beyond. READ MORE
Excerpt from Sierra Club: Delaware has joined eleven other states that have adopted the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) rule to become a leader in clean transportation. Regulators announced today that Delaware will be moving forward with the rule that sets gradual new electric vehicle (EV) sales targets reaching 82% through model year 2032. Delaware, having previously adopted state clean car standards, is for the first time adopting a zero-emission vehicle sales target. Delaware will officially be the first state to make such a leap in policy.
Clean air, health, business and climate advocates celebrated the Governor’s decision to pursue the clean cars rule. The decision to adopt ACC II standards will help toward cleaning up Delaware’s transportation sector. As the most polluting sector in the state, transportation accounts for about 30% of total climate-warming emissions according to the most recent state greenhouse gas inventory. This rule will rapidly cut tailpipe pollution by putting more zero-emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles on the road. Unlike Delaware, other states have chosen to adopt the original proposed rule that achieves 100% new EV sales by 2035.
Tailpipe pollution contributes to the climate crisis and puts the health of communities across the state at risk. Tailpipe pollution is known to cause or worsen asthma, lung disease, and cancer. Given the severity of the health harms associated with bad air quality and exposure to tailpipe pollution, advocates are encouraged that the Department has already stated they will review the program annually to ensure compliance and to make sure we have a pathway to a full 2035 goal as the market further develops. The American Lung Association estimates that between 2020-2050 the transition to clean cars and clean power generation will generate $5.2 billion in health benefits, 462 premature deaths avoided, and 11,200 asthma attacks avoided.
In response to today’s announcement, Delaware clean air, health, and climate advocates released the following statements:
“This is a massive step towards providing clean options and clean air to Delawareans across the state,” said Dustyn Thompson, Chapter Director for the Sierra Club Delaware Chapter. “But this is just a part of a much-needed movement towards a healthier Delaware. The state and advocates across movements have to work together now to make sure this new rule is a success. We need to ensure equity in access to both the cars and the infrastructure needed to power them. But we also need to make sure that as we continue the transition to a clean transportation future that we don’t stop at 2032, but use that goalpost as an opportunity to review and go even further to help protect public health and do our part to combat climate change. We are eager to work with the administration and legislature to do what is necessary to make those goals a reality."
"With so many of Delaware's communities suffering from poor air quality due to transportation pollution, we need policies in place to address the issue. That’s where Delaware’s adoption of the Advanced Clean Cars II standard comes in. Today’s announcement is a crucial step in the right direction for public health and for the climate," said Kathy Harris, Senior Clean Vehicles and Fuels Advocate, NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council). "These standards will provide many benefits to the state, including less air pollution, improved public health, and vehicle owner savings.”
"The science is clear: without sound policies to reduce pollution, the impacts of climate change will pose ever greater risk to Delaware -- now and for generations to come,” said Paulina Muratore, Transportation Campaign Manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists.“Switching from gasoline and diesel engines to electric motors is one of the most effective ways to reduce this deeply damaging pollution. We applaud the state on formally adopting ACC II, which provides a clear and achievable roadmap to a cleaner future and provide consumers with more electric vehicle choices."
“DEEVA, the Delaware Electric Vehicle Association, welcomes the good news that DE has joined our neighboring states in adopting measures to promote zero emission vehicles," said Charlie Garlow, president of DEEVA. "This will not only reduce conventional pollution like smog and particulate matter, including cancer-causing toxic emissions, but it will also curb climate change problems. Then too, as our state and country consume less gasoline and diesel fuel, we will be cutting our use of imports that provide funds to oil driven and often oppressive governments abroad.”
"The Nature Conservancy celebrates the adoption of Advanced Clean Cars II today. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is vital to building a better climate future. ACC II is an equitable and sustainable policy that prioritizes people and nature.” said Emily Knearl, Delaware Director of Government Relations at The Nature Conservancy. "Thank you to the Delawareans who made their voices heard as part of this process and helped to send a clear message that climate progress is not an option, it’s a necessity." READ MORE
Excerpt from Politico Pro: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin on Wednesday (June 5, 2024) said he will stop the state from adopting a California rule that would require all new vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2035.
“Once again, Virginia is declaring independence — this time from a misguided electric vehicle mandate imposed by unelected leaders nearly 3,000 miles away from the Commonwealth,” said Youngkin, a Republican, in a statement.
The move comes just months after a regulatory board formally approved regulations to comply with California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule.
Background: Virginia's General Assembly in 2021 passed a law requiring the state to comply with California's Advanced Clean Cars I rule, which took effect on Jan. 1 of this year and requires increasing percentages of new vehicle sales be zero-emission, up to 22 percent for model year 2025. A number of other states have adopted California's rules.
Then California created the Advanced Clean Cars II rule, which extended the zero-emission vehicle sales targets through 2035, when 100 percent of new vehicle sales are required to be zero-emission, effectively phasing out gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles. The ACCII rule also imposed a sunset on the ACCI standards at the end of 2024. READ MORE
Excerpt from The Hill: In a statement Wednesday, Youngkin said Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) gave his office the go-ahead to exit an agreement under which Virginia would echo California’s standards. The Golden State’s newest standards, set to take effect Jan. 1 of next year, require that new vehicle sales be at least 22 percent zero-emission models by the end of 2025, with the proportion increasing to 100 percent over the following 10 years.
In 2021, when Democrats held a trifecta in Virginia’s government, the state General Assembly voted to align its auto emissions standards with those of California, which are stricter than the federal Environmental Protection Agency’s. Miyares argued that that legislation says the state “may” align with California standards, allowing Youngkin discretion in implementing it.
“Once again, Virginia is declaring independence – this time from a misguided electric vehicle mandate imposed by unelected leaders nearly 3,000 miles away from the Commonwealth,” Youngkin said in a statement. “The idea that government should tell people what kind of car they can or can’t purchase is fundamentally wrong. Virginians deserve the freedom to choose which vehicles best fit the needs of their families and businesses. The law is clear, and I am proud to announce Virginians will no longer be forced to live under this out-of-touch policy.”
In a statement, Virginia Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell (D) called the decision “reckless, illegal and unconstitutional.” READ MORE
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