Tech, Feedstock Winners Still to Be Declared as Biofuels Sector Develops

August 11, 2021

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by Tom Brown (ICIS/Biofuels Digest) ... A factor that could stand to drive wider deployment of biofuels could be its relative maturity compared to other emissions-reduction technologies, particularly for heavy industry, with around half of the innovations that are likely to contribute to those goals currently not yet in existence or in the development phase, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Many biofuels production technologies are much more established, and some feedstocks such as waste cooking oil already have international trade networks, with material from China, Argentina and Brazil flowing into Europe.

The choice of technology, as much as the choice of biofuel, is likely to be a significant determinant of success. Some forms, such as SAF and biodiesel, can be synthesised using a wide variety of technologies, from isomerisation to pyrolysis, while others such as biogasoline, have a much more limited range of technological options at present.

The sector remains policy-driven, although consumer interest in alternative-fuel transportation is growing and that balance may shift over the next decade.

In the short-term, the momentum of the space is also dependent on government targets, meaning that some momentum has been lost during the pandemic.

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Output is expected to return to 2019 levels at least this year, the agency (International Energy Agency (IEA)) added, but the rebound will be uneven, with biodiesel and hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) fuels coming back strongly but US and Brazil ethanol sectors remaining subdued.

A factor in this is that ethanol and biodiesel are constrained by total demand (which remains subdued) due to blending limits, while HVO is a substitute for fossil diesel.

HVO could be a significant driver in biofuels becoming more mainstream, according to Michael Connolly, senior analyst on the ICIS global refining team.

“I think the big change in the market is HVO, because all these other fuels to date are limited by the blending percentage that can go into the finished product, whereas HVO can be 100% of the product. And so that opens up room for biofuels to expand,” he said.

“That, in combination with all the regulations/incentives, we’re seeing encouraging biofuels is really what’s driving a big change in the market. Then you will get co- products on the side like the bionaphthas and LPGs which the petchems firms are going to lap up,” he added.

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The biofuels market is currently growing, and an increasing number of idled or unprofitable refineries are being retrofitted to produce more material, but these new capacities will need to be fed.

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As these feedstocks are often themselves by-products, either from the service sector, food production or agriculture, they are dependent on factors such as consumer demand, yields and weather.

The coronavirus pandemic saw a sharp drop in restaurant demand, meaning that waste oil from that sector became harder to find.

Players in the space are largely dealing with this by having supply contracts locked down ahead of time, according to Connolly.

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Co-processing plants use the hydrotreating capacity of existing conventional oil refineries, and produce a single, blended diesel output. This reduces the capital costs of the hydrogenation plant, but also reduces the refinery’s output of petroleum-based diesel.

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In terms of maturity, hydrogenation is at the demonstration stage. Key development areas for improvement include the understanding of catalysts for hydrogenation. Future generations of biofuels, such as oils produced from algae, are at the applied research and development stage, and require considerable development before becoming competitive.

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Fossil oil refineries in Europe are facing overcapacity and liquidity issues which limit the profitability of the plants. Conversion to biorefineries allows the use of existing infrastructure for new revenue sources. Hydrogenation requires integration with an oil refinery to avoid building a dedicated hydrogen production unit.

The deployment of renewables or biodiesel depends on the interest of oil companies and refineries. For hydrogenation, there has been reticence due to potential technical risks associated with hydrogenation catalysts degrading.

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Most of the biorefineries today are oriented towards renewable diesel production, targeted for road transportation. Nonetheless, many of the existing biorefineries and planned projects have the capacity to produce a mix of SAF and renewable diesel. As demand for SAF grows, driven by regulatory support as well as the industry’s desire to decarbonise, producers are likely to optimise their facilities for higher SAF production.

To date, the ASTM International has approved seven alternative jet fuels (see Table 1) for blending, with conventional fossil jet fuel up to a certain limit under their standard D7655.

The production pathways of these approved jet fuels could be broadly categorised into i) oil-to-jet; ii) alcohol-to-jet; iii) gas-to-jet; and iv) sugar-to-jet.

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The recent issuance of Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates (RTFCs) in the UK and market expectations of other governments taking similar steps, are significant drivers for market growth, although the space remains relatively niche at present.

LPG blended with renewable dimethyl ether (DME) is another option for reducing carbon footprint. Renewable DME is produced from a variety of feedstock such as waste from pulp and paper mills, forest products, agricultural residues, manure and municipal waste.

Europe is overwhelmingly the largest producer and market for bioLPG at present, followed by North America, with little change to that status quo expected in the near future.

It can be produced from methanol dehydration or from synthesis gas. LPG blended with renewable DME is being explored as a cleaner replacement for diesel and gasoline.

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Bionaphtha is co-produced during the production of renewable diesel and SAF through hydroprocessing, co-processing or gasification/FT processes. It is essentially an identical replacement for fossil naphtha and thus can be used as a feedstock for the production of gasoline or a petrochemical feedstock for steam cracking (ethylene/propylene production) and benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX) production.

Bionaphtha is also a co-product of thermo-chemical bio-pathways, such as lipids hydrogenation (producing renewable diesel, HVO), that transform biomass via a breakdown and/or reconstruction/reconfiguration in hydrocarbons. Bionaphtha availability depends on that of the underlying thermo-chemical process. READ MORE

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Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Jetfuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)) heavy duty vehicles (HDV) used cooking oil (UCO) China Argentina Brazil European Union (EU) biodiesel Biogasoline/Renewable Gasoline isomerisation pyrolysis Transportation Fuels Policy HVO (Hydrotreated vegetable oil) Renewable Diesel/Green Diesel/HVO/Paraffinic Diesel ethanol/bioethanol market forces markets/sales oil refineries repurpose France advanced biofuels production aviation fuel (SAF) production biodiesel production biofuel production Renewable Diesel Production co-processing hydrogenation HEFA (Hydro-processed esters and fatty acids) alcohol-to-jet (ATJ)/ethanol-to-jet (ETJ) ATJ-SPK (Alcohol to Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene) sugar-to-jetfuel Fischer-Tropsch/FT Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK) Hydroprocessed fermented sugars to synthetic isoparaffins (HFS-SIP) UK (United Kingdom) environmental policy Bio LPG (Bio Liquid Petroleum Gas) liquid petroleum gas (LPG) DME/rDME (dimethyl ether)/renewable DME naphtha/bionaphtha/renewable naphtha Singapore tall oil manure MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) forest residue/waste Agricultural waste/residue Pulp/Paper Mill BioChemicals/Renewable Chemicals precursors/biointermediates Investing Sustainability

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