How Much Mining Is Needed to Save the Planet?
by Jael Holzman (E&E News/Greenwire) With climate change pushing the U.S. toward more rapid adoption of new technologies, many Republicans and Democrats are in rare agreement on one key point: This country needs a lot more mines.
But exactly how much new mining is required for the energy transition isn’t clear.
Electric cars, wind turbines and solar panels are made with a wide variety of minerals — from graphite to tellurium — that currently are only available in a few corners of the globe. Some of these minerals are not mined enough to feed a world powered without fossil fuels — particularly lithium, a metal vital for electric cars and other battery-reliant products.
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The risk for the U.S. is opening untouched landscapes and culturally sensitive areas for mines, under the auspices of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, only to create new pollution problems from a sector that by its very nature carries the risk of potential environmental hazards.
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The recent passage of the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act has juiced up the debate, as the need for domestically produced or processed minerals went from an abstract concept to a concrete requirement.
The law tied a $7,500 tax credit for buying an electric car to the origins of a vehicle’s parts. If an American consumer wants to use the full credit, the EV’s battery would need minerals from the United States or a country with a U.S. free trade agreement. The car also can’t include any parts made from minerals mined or processed in China or Russia.
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Democrats also put other incentives for more mining in the climate law, saying it would help provide the U.S. with independence from China as the country moves away from oil and gas. Any mining operation digging up rocks desired by green tech manufacturers will get a 10 percent tax break. The Pentagon got more than $500 million in added funding to a wartime account that Biden opened for spending on mining activities.
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Companies insist that an American mining resurgence would be much cleaner than decades past. But industry progress can’t change the geologic reality that the minerals sought after for making green technologies are located in sensitive parts of the United States, including near delicate ecosystems and Native American communities. In Nevada alone, two large lithium projects have sparked fights over endangered species, water use and Indigenous rights. A broader mining boom could see these conflicts play out on a national scale.
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In September, mining industry data firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence came up with an answer to how many mines globally need to open for EVs and energy storage batteries to keep growing. After taking a look at the mines producing metals for the battery market today, their estimate was 336 mines by 2035.
“You are going to need mining in this sort of exponential demand phase of the EV revolution,” said Henry Sanderson, executive editor of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
But in its own recent analysis, the International Energy Agency noted changing battery designs could result in the world needing fewer new mines.
The IEA concluded roughly 117 lithium, cobalt and nickel mines would have to open to feed the EV market by 2030. Unlike Benchmark, IEA did not analyze how many more mines are needed to produce graphite, a mineral used in battery anodes.
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Cobalt, a bluish mineral used in cathodes, has been in high demand because it could protect against batteries overheating. That’s changing because of human rights concerns about cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has sparked investments in battery research. Now automakers are increasingly swapping cobalt-heavy batteries out for ones that don’t use cobalt or nickel, a metal used in cells to store more energy.
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Hans Eric Melin, the founder of intelligence firm Circular Energy Storage, makes his living by providing companies and individuals with industry data on the full life cycle of batteries used in electric vehicles and energy grids. He said there simply isn’t enough metal available for recycling to drive the transition away from fossil fuels.
“In terms of recycling, you are only able to recycle what is there,” Melin said.
A big issue is lithium, an element essential for making a battery charge.
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A recent study published in Resources, Conservation & Recycling estimated that by 2035 only 7 percent to 8 percent of U.S. lithium demand could be met with reused materials. READ MORE
DOE Funds More Studies of Domestic Supply Chain for Critical Minerals for EVs (NGT News)
Digging for green minerals a priority for the North, says federal minister (CBC)
There’s lithium in them thar hills – but fears grow over US ‘white gold’ boom (The Guardian)
EV supply chains have a human rights problem. Can tech fix it? (Washington Post)
Green Minerals: Justice and Opportunity in the Renewable Energy Transition (Wilson Center; includes VIDEO)
Lack of graphite could gum up American EV market (E&E News Greenwire)
How a stalled Minnesota mining project challenges Biden’s clean energy goals (Politico)
‘Made in America’ fight clouds EV gains (Politico’s Power Switch)
Renewable Energy and Mining in Latin America (Wilson Center; includes VIDEO)
South America’s Lithium and the Race to Go Green (Wilson Center; includes AUDIO)
Critical Minerals: What, How, and Why All the Hype? (EERC Webinar; include VIDEO)
Today’s Critical Mineral Technologies and How to Move Forward (EERC Webinar; includes VIDEO)
Feds offer $700M to lithium project at heart of ESA dispute (E&E News)
Why the DOE might loan millions to a controversial mine project (Politico Energy Podcast)
Lithium Production by Country (1995-2021) (Transport Energy Solutions/Visual Capitalist)
States see lithium rush for EVs as environmentalists urge caution (The Hill)
Lithium company Ioneer scores $700 million conditional loan from Energy Department for Nevada plant (CNBC)
Feds offer $700M to lithium project at heart of ESA dispute (E&E News)
LPO Announces Conditional Commitment to Ioneer Rhyolite Ridge to Advance Domestic Production of Lithium and Boron, Boost U.S. Battery Supply Chain (U.S. Department of Energy)
U.S. strikes at China with EV battery deal (E&E News)
Revealed: how US transition to electric cars threatens environmental havoc (The Guardian)
US moves to protect Minnesota wilderness from planned mine (Star Tribune)
Will Biden’s Mining Ban in Minnesota’s Boundary Waters Hurt the Clean Energy Transition? (Inside Climate News)
Biden blocks Pebble, but Bristol Bay fights could continue (E&E News)
GM to invest $650M in Nevada lithium mine for EV push (Politico Pro)
Minerals are crucial for electric cars, wind turbines, and solar panels. Some worry whether the future supply can meet the rising demand. (Washington Post)
Study: Enough rare earth minerals to fuel green energy shift (Associated Press)
Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios (Joule)
Energy in the New Cold War: Critical Minerals (Energy Minute/Transport Energy Strategies)
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2022–Lithium (U.S. Geological Survey)
The Climate Crusaders Are Coming for Electric Cars Too — A new report makes clear the ultimate goal: tiny, uncomfortable apartments and bicycles for all. (Wall Street Journal)
Electric vehicles need lithium. See how they get it. (Washington Post; includes VIDEO)
Biden turns to Africa to counter China (Power Switch)
U.S. strikes at China with EV battery deal (E&E Energy Wire)
Bleak photos show the reality of the cobalt mining industry responsible for the batteries in your phone, computer, and car (Business Insider India)
A lithium CEO on how the world will change (Semafor)
Pan American Energy to Collaborate with Integrity Mining and Industrial to Pilot Sustainable Chemistry for Lithium Extraction in North America (Pan American Energy Group/Yahoo!)
U.S. and Japan Strike Deal on Minerals Used in Batteries for Electric Cars: Move aims at China’s supply-chain dominance and Japan meeting requirements on EV subsidies in the U.S. (Wall Street Journal)
Excerpt from CBC: N.W.T. MLA says sentiment amounts to call for deregulation of mining — … One of the federal government’s priorities as it moves to a net-zero economy is to make it easier to step up critical mineral mines like this one, which extracts rare earths. …
Speeding up the regulatory process for critical mineral mines in the North is a goal of the federal government, according to Canada’s natural resources minister.
“Critical minerals are essential for us to be able to successfully execute an energy transition,” said Jonathan Wilkinson. If Canada doesn’t mine more critical minerals, he said, it can’t make batteries for electric vehicles needed to reduce emissions from transportation.
Rare earths, for example, are a critical mineral said to be crucial in technology like computers, LED displays, wind turbines and electric vehicles. Canada’s first rare earth operation is the Nechalacho mining project in the N.W.T.
Of the 31 minerals deemed critical by the federal government, 23 can be found in the N.W.T. and 25 are in the Yukon.
“We have to find ways to expedite [these projects] in a manner that’s consistent with environmental sustainability,” said Wilkinson. He also said getting such projects down to zero emissions or close to zero emissions is important, and suggested biomass, biofuels or synthetic fuels as an option for mines that can’t connect to hydroelectric power.
But Kevin O’Reilly, the MLA for Frame Lake in the N.W.T., believes the federal government is suggesting to deregulate critical mineral mines. He said it’s not environmental regulations that keep mines from opening.
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O’Reilly said if the federal and territorial governments want to speed up the review process, it should settle outstanding Indigenous land claims of the Dehcho and Akaitcho regions. READ MORE
Excerpt from Washington Post: The difficulty electric carmakers face building supply chains free of human rights and environmental violations came into focus earlier this year, when U.S. investigators completed their probe of a massive mining tragedy in Brazil.
The SEC’s federal lawsuit was a wake-up call for an auto industry straining to source massive amounts of new metals in a manner consistent with the green branding of electric vehicles.
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“People care where these things are coming from,” said Aimee Boulanger, executive director of the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, a nonprofit that tracks the sustainability of extraction operations around the world. “It is hypocritical to say we are here with these electric vehicles to solve our climate problems if, in making them, we contaminate a community’s drinking water or dry up the irrigation wells they rely on.” READ MORE
Excerpt from E&E News Greenwire: A key ingredient in the modern EV battery, graphite is used in making rechargeable cells. But it hasn’t been mined in this country for decades. There’s also synthetic graphite — often made with coking coal — but little production exists today in the United States.
Like with so many parts of the battery supply chain, China dominates in production of both kinds of graphite — a source Biden and a bipartisan contingent of lawmakers in Congress have stridently turned against.
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To get around this, the Biden administration may now have to help prop up a domestic graphite mining and refining industry in the United States, while fostering the sector’s growth abroad.
China’s control of the graphite market has started to weigh on the minds of people like John DeMaio, CEO of Graphex Technologies, a company building a graphite anode manufacturing plant in Michigan.
“What would happen if the Chinese supply was cut off?” DeMaio said. “There will be less risky places … but you’re not going to transition the entire graphite supply chain overnight.”
Only two places in the United States hold any potential in the near-term for new graphite mining, according to federal data: a river ecosystem in Alabama rich with rare species, and an untouched swath of tundra off the coast of central Alaska. Other countries have plenty of graphite in the ground — like Canada — but they’re not digging anywhere enough of it yet to fully supply the rapidly growing EV market.
To address the problem, Biden has used the Defense Production Act to liberate millions of dollars for potential exploration for graphite and other minerals critical to the energy transition (Climatewire, April 19). The bipartisan infrastructure law provided funds for building mineral refineries and manufacturing plants, a pot of money he used last month to fund the construction of two synthetic graphite plants in the United States, as well as the expansion of a graphite refinery in Louisiana (Energywire, Oct. 20). READ MORE
Excerpt from Politico: Beneath the northeastern Minnesota woods lie massive deposits of copper, nickel and cobalt that the Twin Metals company wants to mine. Mining those critical minerals would help the clean energy industry grow to meet the Biden administration’s climate change goals. But the administration has rejected plans to build the mine because of risks to the environmentally sensitive site – a decision that has drawn charges of hypocrisy from Republicans. POLITICO’s Catherine Morehouse breaks down the politics behind the stalled Minnesota mining project. Plus, the Biden administration has approved an oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico over some local environmental and public health concerns.
Josh Siegel is an energy reporter for POLITICO.
Catherine Morehouse is an energy reporter for POLITICO.
Nirmal Mulaikal is a POLITICO audio host-producer.
Raghu Manavalan is a senior editor for POLITICO audio.
Jenny Ament is the executive producer of POLITICO’s audio department. LISTEN
Excerpt from Politico’s Power Switch: In 2021, the country imported more than 25 percent of its lithium, 48 percent of its nickel, 76 percent of its cobalt, and all its graphite and manganese, Atlas Public Policy found.
Sourcing these minerals inside the country also comes with a host of environmental justice concerns. Deposits of the vast majority of all five critical minerals are located within 35 miles of Indigenous reservations.
While mining safety requirements have improved in recent decades, mining can still cause environmental degradation and disruption to cultural sites. READ MORE
Excerpt from Politico: According to the European Commission, demand for these elements is expected to increase more than fivefold by 2030, as they are needed for building digital and green technologies.
Given current permitting processes, it could take between 10 and 15 years for operations begin at the Kiruna mine, where the deposits were found, said Moström.
He called on Brussels to speed up and streamline those processes as part of its Critical Raw Materials Act, which is slated to be announced on March 14. READ MORE
Excerpt from E&E News: The Biden administration on Friday offered its first loan commitment for a lithium processing plant, backing a facility in southwest Nevada that would provide the highly sought mineral needed for EV batteries but that some environmentalists contend will further threaten an endangered flower.
The Department of Energy revealed in a release that the agency’s Loan Programs Office has offered a conditional commitment of up to $700 million for a proposed lithium carbonate processing plant that has just started undergoing a federal environmental review. If built, the proposed plant and associated mine at the site would provide enough lithium for almost 400,000 electric vehicles each year.
The administration’s financial backing of the project is part of its larger push to boost domestic supply chains for battery minerals and electric vehicles, with federal agencies looking at the steps needed to ramp up electrification and slash emissions from the nation’s transportation sector. According to DOE, lithium demand is expected to surpass global production by 2023.
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A major point of contention is Ioneer Rhyolite Ridge LLC’s plan to build the project close to only known habitat for the Tiehm’s buckwheat, a yellow-tinged wildflower that the Fish and Wildlife Service recently listed as endangered (Greenwire, Dec. 14, 2022). The agency’s decision means the low-growing perennial herb will be protected under the Endangered Species Act and surrounded by a designated critical habitat of 910 acres.
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Once the lithium is developed, Rhyolite Ridge has executed offtake agreements with Ford; Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, a joint venture battery company between Toyota Motor Corp. and Panasonic Corp.; and EcoPro Innovation, a major cathode supplier for global battery manufacturers. Those contracts range from three to five years. READ MORE
Excerpt from Transport Energy Solutions/Visual Capitalist: Lithium is often dubbed as “white gold” for electric vehicles.
The lightweight metal plays a key role in the cathodes of all types of lithium-ion batteries that power EVs. Accordingly, the recent rise in EV adoption has sent lithium production to new highs.
The above infographic charts more than 25 years of lithium production by country from 1995 to 2021, based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
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As the world produces more batteries and EVs, the demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.5 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2025 and over 3 million tonnes by 2030.
For context, the world produced 540,000 tonnes of LCE in 2021. Based on the above demand projections, production needs to triple by 2025 and increase nearly six-fold by 2030.
Although supply has been on an exponential growth trajectory, it can take anywhere from six to more than 15 years for new lithium projects to come online. As a result, the lithium market is projected to be in a deficit for the next few years. READ MORE
Excerpt from The Guardian: By 2050 electric vehicles could require huge amounts of lithium for their batteries, causing damaging expansions of mining — The US’s transition to electric vehicles could require three times as much lithium as is currently produced for the entire global market, causing needless water shortages, Indigenous land grabs, and ecosystem destruction inside and outside its borders, new research finds.
It warns that unless the US’s dependence on cars in towns and cities falls drastically, the transition to lithium battery-powered electric vehicles by 2050 will deepen global environmental and social inequalities linked to mining – and may even jeopardize the 1.5C global heating target.
But ambitious policies investing in mass transit, walkable towns and cities, and robust battery recycling in the US would slash the amount of extra lithium required in 2050 by more than 90%. READ MORE
Excerpt from Star Tribune: The Biden administration moved Thursday to protect northeastern Minnesota’s pristine Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness from future mining, dealing a potentially fatal blow to a copper-nickel project.
Interior Secretary Deb Haaland signed an order closing over 350 square miles (900 square kilometers) of the Superior National Forest, in the Rainy River Watershed around the town of Ely, to mineral and geothermal leasing for 20 years, the longest period the department can sequester the land without congressional approval.
The order is “subject to existing valid rights,” but the Biden administration contends that Twin Metals Minnesota lost its rights last year, when the department rescinded a Trump administration decision to reinstate federal mineral rights leases that were critical to the project. Twin Metals, which is owned by the Chilean mining giant Antofagasta, filed suit in August to try to reclaim those rights. READ MORE
Excerpt from Washington Post: According to the International Energy Agency, the average electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional gas-powered car; an offshore wind-turbine, meanwhile, requires nine times the mineral inputs of a typical gas-fired power plant.
So, will we run out?
There is no doubt that clean energy — that is, solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear and other sources that do not produce greenhouse gas emissions — requires more mineral inputs than power plants run on fossil fuels. The IEA estimates that if the world builds enough renewable energy to meet the goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, mineral demand will double or quadruple in the next 20 years. Countries will need copper for power and transmission lines, lithium for batteries, silicon for solar panels and zinc for wind turbines.
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Abigail Wulf, vice president of critical minerals for Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a D.C.-based energy think tank, says that when minerals become valuable enough, people get motivated.
“It all has to do with economics,” she said. “If people get super desperate for these minerals, they will find very creative ways to find them.”
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According to the study (released recently by scientists at the University of California at Irvine and MIT), the materials required for the transition to low-carbon electricity would take up somewhere between 1 and 9 percent of the remaining carbon budget: a significant amount but one that wouldn’t undercutoverall climate goals.
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The larger problem may be not whether the world as a whole has enough critical minerals — but whether they are available quickly enough and in the right places. Minerals are not distributed equally around the globe — for example, much of the cobalt mined right now is from the Democratic Republic of Congo, most of the rare earths are mined in China, and much of the lithium is mined in Australia. China also dominates the world’s processing of critical minerals: 80 percent of rare earth metals, over 60 percent of cobalt and over 50 percent of lithium are processed there.According to a recent analysis by the USGS, the United States relies on imports for almost 50 percent of the minerals it consumes. READ MORE
Excerpt from Energy Minute/Transport Energy Strategies:
Excerpt from Wall Street Journal: Replacing all gasoline-powered cars with electric vehicles won’t be enough to prevent the world from overheating. So people will have to give up their cars. That’s the alarming conclusion of a new report from the University of California, Davis and “a network of academics and policy experts” called the Climate and Community Project.
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Problem No. 1: Electric-vehicle batteries require loads of minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, which must be extracted from the ground like fossil fuels. “If today’s demand for EVs is projected to 2050, the lithium requirements of the US EV market alone would require triple the amount of lithium currently produced for the entire global market,” the report notes.
Unlike fossil fuels, these minerals are mostly found in undeveloped areas that have abundant natural fauna and are often inhabited by indigenous people. “Large-scale mining entails social and environmental harm, in many cases irreversibly damaging landscapes without the consent of affected communities,” the report says. Mining can be done safely, but in poor countries it often isn’t.
Problem No. 2: Mining requires huge amounts of energy and water, and the process of refining minerals requires even more. According to the report, mining accounts for 4% to 7% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Auto makers have made a priority of manufacturing electric pick-up trucks and SUVs because drivers like them, but they require much bigger batteries and more minerals.
More mining to make more EVs will increase CO2 emissions. It will also destroy tropical forests and deserts that currently suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, the report says. READ MORE
Excerpt from Business Insider India: Cobalt is the new blood diamond.
It’s highly valuable and dangerous to extract. The Democratic Republic of Congo is responsible for about 70% of the world’s supply of Cobalt.
As the world transitions to renewable energies to fight climate change, the demand — and the price — for cobalt, a crucial ingredient used to make lithium batteries, has skyrocketed.
But even as the cost increases, the working conditions of the people mining it can be brutal, and the pay is almost nothing — The Guardian found in an investigation that workers were getting paid about 35 cents an hour.
Here’s the reality of where cobalt comes from and how it is mined. READ MORE