by Joanna Plucinska (Reuters) Most of the world's airlines are not doing enough to switch to sustainable jet fuel, according to a study by Brussels-based advocacy group Transport and Environment, which also found too little investment by oil producers in the transition.
The airline sector is calling for more production of the fuel, which can be made from materials such as wood chips and used cooking oil.
"Unfortunately, airlines at the moment are not on the trajectory to have meaningful emissions reduction because they're not buying enough sustainable aviation fuel," Transport and Environment aviation policy manager Francesco Catte said.
As it stands, SAF makes up about 1% of aviation fuel use on the global market, which needs to increase for airlines to meet carbon emission reduction targets. The fuel can cost between two to five times more than regular jet fuel.
A lack of investment by major oil players, who have the capital to build SAF processing facilities, is hampering the market's growth, the study says.
In its ranking, Transport and Environment pointed to Air France-KLM (AIRF.PA), United Airlines (UAL.O), and Norwegian (NAS.OL), as some of the airlines that have taken tangible steps to buy sustainable jet fuel, particularly its synthetic, cleaner burning version.
But 87% are failing to make meaningful efforts, the ranking shows, and even those who are trying could miss their own targets without more investment.
Airlines such as Italy's ITA Airways, the successor airline to bankrupt Alitalia, and Portugal's TAP have done very little to secure SAF in the coming years, the ranking shows.
A TAP spokesperson said the airline was the first to fly in Portugal with SAF in July 2022, "and is committed to flying with 10% SAF in 2030".
"While we would have liked to increase our investment in SAF, the low availability...and high costs...have limited our ability to do so, considering also our start up condition," an ITA spokesperson said. READ MORE
Related articles
- The SAF Observatory: Is the aviation sector ready to transition to sustainable jet fuel? (Transport and Environment)
- SAF Costs Could Put Airlines Out of Business, if Investment Aid Isn’t Forthcoming, IATA Warns (Ireland's Travel Trade Network)
- Global airlines could miss sustainable fuel targets, IATA's Walsh says (Reuters)
- Disappointingly Slow Growth in SAF Production (International Air Transport Association)
- Slow growth for SAF production (Airlines.IATA)
- Progress on decarbonising the airline sector has been slow this year, says IATA chief (GreenAir)
- EASA releases status report on Europe’s SAF production and readiness to meet blending targets (GreenAir)
- Financing will be paramount for achieving our collective goals for a net zero future, says ICAO Secretary General (GreenAir)
- Why co-processing of biogenic feedstocks at refineries will likely grow (BC-SMART Newsletter)
Excerpt from Transport and Environment: Executive summary
T&E’s SAF Observatory findings indicate that airlines are currently unprepared to transition to sustainable jet fuel. Of the 77 airlines assessed, none has acquired sufficient sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to qualify in category A, while 67 are in category D, as they do not purchase SAF, or they do so at levels too low to make a meaningful impact on emissions. Less than half of the airlines have established targets for SAF use, and none have set targets for e-kerosene.
SAF consumption is projected to rise from 0.15% to 1.3% for the airlines ranked in the study by 2030, which would reduce the aviation sector’s greenhouse gas emissions by less than 1%.This is not even enough to offset growth in air traffic. Emissions reductions could be enhanced if airlines prioritised the purchase of e-fuels over unsustainable biofuels, as e-kerosene currently accounts for less than 10% of SAF purchases, while crop-based biofuels comprise around 30%.
There are notable differences in performance across regions. For instance, while European airlines have purchased less SAF than their North American counterparts, they are projected to achieve greater emissions reductions by 2030 due to higher volumes of e-kerosene and reduced reliance on crop-based biofuels.
Airlines are not solely at fault for their limited uptake of SAF, particularly e-kerosene. Many airlines are based in regions without supportive regulatory frameworks. Where such frameworks do exist, they often lack robust sustainability criteria, allowing problematic biofuels to proliferate. Moreover, major oil companies, despite their profitability and capacity for investment, have largely neglected the e-kerosene market.
Big oil companies, governments, and airlines can drive change to ensure the take-off of sustainable aviation fuels by following these recommendations:
● Oil companies should engage in the e-kerosene market by developing projects themselves or by investing in and/or buying e-kerosene from other companies.
● Countries without SAF mandates and/or frameworks should establish them, incorporating robust sustainability criteria to prevent the use of the least sustainable biofuels, whilst promoting e-kerosene.
● Countries already having SAF mandates and/or frameworks should limit the use of unsustainable biofuels, set e-kerosene sub-targets, and enforce robust penalties for non-compliance. Moreover, mandates should be complemented with incentives to drive SAF prices down, especially for e-kerosene, such as tax credits, grants, low-interest loans, state guarantees, contracts for difference.
● The EU should ensure the Clean Industrial Deal effectively complements the SAF mandate set by RefuelEU with incentives and regulatory measures. The Deal presents the opportunity to develop a robust strategy for e-kerosene fostering investment and production, whilst reducing the e-kerosene green premium. 2 | Briefing
● Airlines should focus on the quality and the scalability of the SAF they buy, rather than rely on unsustainable and non-scalable fuels if they want to achieve meaningful emissions reductions. Moreover, by signing early MoUs and offtake agreements with e-kerosene producers or directly investing in these projects, airlines can support the uptake of e-kerosene in the market. READ MORE
Excerpt from Ireland's Travel Trade Network: The costs associated with transitioning to greener Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) could put many airlines out of business, if Government funding aid is not included, the chief economist of global aviation representative group, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said.
Marie Owens-Thomsen told last week’s Airlines 24 industry conference in London that the huge jump in costs associated with switching from traditional jet fuel to SAF means a realistic transition can only come about if outside investment aid is forthcoming.
Ms Owens Thomsen told delegates: “SAF today costs around three times the price of jet fuel. We’ll pay $1 billion extra in 2025 and the costs [of SAF] will go up to $750 billion in 2050. That is not possible.
“Fares have not kept pace with consumer price inflation and have struggled even more to keep pace with jet fuel inflation.
“So, we need strong policy to encourage investment [in SAF] or there will be no airlines.
“It’s a nascent market and needs a lot of help. It needs to grow up really fast. We need to increase production by a factor of one thousand.”
She said SAF production calls for 70 international refineries to be fully producing by 2030, 650 to be producing by 2040 and between 4,000 and 8,000 to be up and running by2050. The total investment needed – $2tn-$3tn – is equivalent to the establishment of a strong global wind and solar energy sector.
The 1 million tonnes of SAF due to be produced this year doesn’t even cover 1% of the global demand, she said.
“Are we going to ship SAF over large distances? We need to work for a global SAF market, and that needs a SAF registry which we’ll try to bring forward with the International Civil Aviation Organisation [ICAO] next year,” she said. READ MORE
Excerpt from International Air Transport Association: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new estimates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production showing that:
- In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion liters), double the 0.5 million tonnes (600 million liters) produced in 2023. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel*.
- This is significantly below previous estimates that projected SAF production in 2024 at 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion liters), as key SAF production facilities in the US have pushed back their production ramp up to the first half of 2025.
- In 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion liters) or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity*.
“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle. With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6% net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonization. Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Aviation is part of the global energy transition
“The airline industry’s decarbonization must be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalized as a transport issue. That’s because solving the energy transition challenge for aviation will also benefit the wider economy, as renewable fuel refineries will produce a broad range of fuels used by other industries, and only a minor share will be SAF, used by airlines. We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
To reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA analysis shows that between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be needed. These will also produce renewable diesel and other fuels for other industries. The annual average capex needed to build the new facilities over the 30-year period is about $128 billion per year, in a best-case scenario. Importantly, this amount is significantly less than the estimated total sum of investments in the solar and wind energy markets at $280 billion per annum between 2004 and 2022.
“Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production. There is already a model to follow with the transition to wind and solar power. The good news is that the energy transition, which includes SAF, will need less than half the annual investments that realizing wind and solar production at scale required. And a good portion of the needed funding could be realized by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry,” said Walsh.
Short Term Measures
Progress on expanding SAF production and use could be accelerated in three critical ways:
- Increase co-processing: Existing refineries can be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside the crude oil streams. This solution can be implemented quickly and requires minimal material investments. It should urgently be expanded by allowing a greater amount of renewable feedstock to be co-processed. By 2050, co-processing could save $347 billion in capex as more than 260 new renewable fuel plants would not need to be built.
- Diversify SAF production: There are 11 certified pathways to make SAF, but the HEFA method (hydrotreated esters fatty acids (used cooking oil, animal fats etc.)) accounts for around 80% of production in the next five years. SAF volumes could be boosted by increasing investments to scale up production through the other certified pathways, in particular Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which use biological and agricultural wastes and residue.
- Create a global SAF accounting framework: It is essential to have a registry that allows airlines to benefit from the environmental attributes of their SAF purchases and to be able to claim these against their obligations in a transparent manner that prevents double counting. Such a registry is necessary for achieving a global SAF market where all airlines can buy SAF, and all SAF producers can sell their fuel to airlines.
Passenger Support
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF. Some 86% of travelers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
- IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 340 airlines comprising over 80% of global air traffic.
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- *The SAF percentage share of renewable fuel capacity is considerably higher this year than the 3% noted in 2023 because of stricter inclusion criteria for projects considered. Only projects with current or announced future SAF capability were included, reducing the total number of projects considered. This doesn’t necessarily mean that renewable fuel projects are shifting towards more SAF but rather, the increase in the SAF share is due to a smaller overall base of renewable fuel projects. READ MORE
Excerpt from Airlines.IATA: New estimates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production show that although volumes increased last year more was expected. -- In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes ( 1.3 billion liters), which was double the 0.5 million tonnes ( 600 million liters) produced in 2023. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel.
IATA added that it had expected SAF production in 2024 to be a lot greater, previously estimating production at 1.5 million tonnes ( 1.9 billion liters). It said 'key SAF production facilities' in the US have pushed production back to the first half of 2025.
In 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes ( 2.7 billion liters) or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity.
“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF.”
To reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA analysis shows that between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be needed. These will also produce renewable diesel and other fuels for other industries.
Although only short term measures, IATA says progress on expanding SAF production and use could be accelerated by 'increasing co-processing' of SAF alongside crude oil, 'diversifying SAF production' and creating a 'global SAF accounting framework'.
“The airline industry’s decarbonization must be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalized as a transport issue. We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF, as 86% of travelers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines. READ MORE
Excerpt from GreenAir: With the EU about to activate its sustainable aviation fuel blending mandate, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released an assessment of Europe’s preparedness to deliver required volumes of SAF up to 2030. The blending requirement will escalate from a minimum 2% of jet fuel composition by the end of 2025 to 70% in 2050 for supplies dispensed at airports across the EU’s 27 member states. EASA concludes that by 2030, when the blending mandate reaches 6%, there will be sufficient European production of SAF through multiple pathways to meet the requirements of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which governs the mandate. But it warns rapid action is needed to ensure that a sub-target, initially 0.7%, is achieved for the use of increasingly important synthetic aviation fuels, or e-fuels.
The EASA report, titled ‘State of the EU SAF market in 2023’, examines the capacity of member states to produce the new fuels during the next five years, based on an assessment of the sector’s performance in 2023 and the addition of updated projections. The report, EASA’s first on this subject, also provides real or estimated reference prices for multiple types of current and future aviation fuels and outlines emerging trends in European SAF production.
“This first report on SAF provides a comprehensive analysis and valuable insights to the potential of sustainable aviation fuels for commercial airline operations in Europe,” commented Maria Rueda, EASA’s Strategy and Safety Management Director. “It will be a key component on the journey towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly aviation sector.”
EASA says the minimum SAF volume required by 2030 under the ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA) programme is around 2.8 million tonnes based on forecast jet fuel consumption of 46 million tonnes and a mandated blending level which, by then, will be at least 6%.
But it qualifies that the SAF production market is “inherently volatile”, impacted by factors including high capital expenditure, feedstock supply chain limitations and the risks to investors of supporting technologies in their early stages. “While many projects are announced,” adds EASA, “some may not reach commercialisation.”
The report presents three scenarios for SAF production in EU countries: Operating, Realistic and Optimistic.
...
It adds that immature technology for other SAF production pathways including Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) prevented them from delivering commercial volumes of the fuel during the study reference year, 2023.
As well, says EASA, the AtJ process of converting alcohols into SAF disqualifies the fuel in the EU because the alcohols are fermented from food crops including corn and sugarcane.
Additional pathways, including Sun-to-Liquid (StL) and Hydrothermal Liquidation (HtL), are also under development. “However,” says the report, “they remain immature, with only a couple of pilot plants announced, and their contribution to commercial SAF volumes is projected to be negligible by 2030.”
Synthetic aviation fuel is required to comprise at least 1.2% of jet fuel makeup by 2030, which EASA calculates to be a 600,000-tonne requirement. Also known as Power-to-Liquid, or PtL, this process combines water with renewable electricity to extract green hydrogen, which is then combined with captured CO2 to create SAF and other products such as renewable diesel.
“Within the EU,” says the EASA report, “more than 15 synthetic aviation fuel production facilities have been announced, primarily in countries with considerable renewable electricity capacity or infrastructure.”
However, it adds, the requirement for large volumes of renewable electricity, the costs of producing the power and limited sources of eligible carbon in many key locations drives up the costs of e-fuels.
“The resulting production price is currently non-competitive with other forms of SAF production, particularly HEFA. Therefore, the development of synthetic aviation fuels is likely to be driven by the RFEUA sub-mandate that requires their supply.”
...
The report listed the average 2023 market price of conventional aviation fuel at €816 ($850) per tonne and aviation biofuels at €2,768 ($2,880) per tonne, the latter with an estimated production cost of €1,770 ($1,840) per tonne.
...
Production costs for recycled carbon aviation fuels were estimated to average €2,125 per tonne, while advanced aviation biofuels averaged €2,675 per tonne, low carbon hydrogen for aviation averaged €4,700 per tonne, synthetic low carbon aviation fuels averaged €5,300 per tonne and renewable hydrogen for aviation averaged €6,925 per tonne.
But by far the largest estimates were those for synthetic aviation fuels, the average production cost of which EASA lists as €7,500 per tonne.
The same average estimate – €7,500 per tonne – also applied to synthetic fuel produced with CO2 captured at the industrial source of emission or that made from biogenic CO2.
The most expensive production cost estimated was for fuel produced with CO2 captured from the atmosphere, averaging €8,225 per tonne – more than 10 times the 2023 average market price of conventional jet fuel. READ MORE
Excerpt from BC-SMART Newsletter: Technical challenges in co-processing lipids and biocrudes
As mentioned earlier, co-processing of lipids is already fully commercial, widely implemented and requires minimal modifications of refineries which produce low-CI diesel and jet fuels.
However, it should be noted that higher blend ratios will likely require more infrastructure investment, primarily to handle the increased heat produced during hydrotreatment. In contrast, co-processing of biocrudes is still in development with challenges such as the high oxygen content (up to 45% compared to 11% for lipids) of biocrudes and their complex, heterogeneous chemical composition, which can vary significantly, still needing to be fully resolved. These characteristics can result in technical difficulties such as increased hydrogen demand, higher heat release, more wastewater production and greater risks of corrosion and catalyst deactivation. Biocrudes typically require more intensive hydrotreatment or hydrocracking due to their higher aromatic content and elevated total acid number (TAN). While lipids typically have TAN numbers under 2 mg KOH/g, fast pyrolysis biocrudes can range from 55–65 mg KOH/g. These and other factors highlight the complexities in the future use of biocrudes, particularly when co-processing (Oasmaa & Peacocke, 2010).
The main “insertion points” that are used
Biogenic feedstocks can be inserted at various points within the refinery, such as the hydrotreater, hydrocracker or FCC (Figure 2). Typically, the specific insertion point depends on the type of biobased intermediate and the type of processing required. Refineries will also have different configurations while other considerations may be relevant in the selection of an insertion point. READ MORE
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