UN Aviation Meeting Agrees to Goal of 5% Lower Emissions by 2030

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November 27, 2023

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by Allison Lampert and Tim Hepher (Reuters) A meeting of more than 100 countries on Friday agreed to an interim goal for emissions reductions from global aviation by 2030 by using less-polluting fuels, but China, Russia and some others aired concerns about the impact on their economies.

The goal, which came after five days of U.N.-led talks in Dubai, called for 5% lower carbon emissions through the use of cleaner energies like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said. An earlier draft had a target of 5-8%.

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The United States told the closing session of the meeting, which was held ahead of next week's COP28 climate summit, that the goal sent a "clear and positive signal" to the financial community, which must invest in new clean energy projects.

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Mauricio Ramirez Koppel, ICAO representative from Colombia, which is looking to produce SAF from materials like palm oil, said the 5% target "will kick-start and speed up SAF projects" by providing investors a clear objective.

"Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever increasing quantities,” said Haldane Dodd, executive director of the Air Transport Action Group, which represents airframe and engine makers, among others.

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Aviation is not directly covered by the Paris Agreement on combating climate change, but the air transport sector has previously pledged to align itself with global goals by setting an "aspirational" target of net zero emissions by 2050.

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China, which has agreed to aim for carbon neutrality by 2060 rather than 2050, said the goal would "enormously increase" airline operating costs and discriminate against developing countries by posing a threat to energy and food security.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two major Middle East oil producers and OPEC members, objected to both the target and the date.

Environmentalists said agreement lacks teeth as it is not binding and would allow airlines to use lower-carbon fossil fuel.

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The aviation industry estimates it will take between $1.45 trillion and $3.2 trillion for SAF capital development to achieve the sector's net zero emissions goal.

Making access to financing more readily available to developing countries, another conference goal, is needed to bolster SAF output outside regions like the U.S. and Europe.

Francis Mwangi, senior planning officer at Kenya's Civil Aviation Authority, said his country needs financing to study the economic benefits of domestic SAF production and for using an old Mombasa-based refinery to produce the fuel.

"We are ready to move and produce SAF in Kenya," Mwangi told Reuters ahead of the conference. READ MORE

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Excerpt from GreenAir Online: In what ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano described as the UN civil aviation agency’s most important event of the year, countries are convening this week in Dubai to agree a global framework on a cleaner energy future for aviation. The purpose of the Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) is to steer policy direction and financing to aid the rapid shift towards new forms of sustainable energy, in particular sustainable aviation fuels, to meet ICAO’s Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. Sciacchitano said it would be a massive task that required immediate collective action. SAF production remains largely confined to Europe and the USA but the collective global target will require huge support and investment for energy transition in the developing world. The week-long meeting has been marked with an Emirates A380 demonstration flight with one engine powered by 100% SAF. READ MORE

Excerpt from International Air Transport Association: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced estimates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.

In 2023, SAF volumes reached over 600 million liters (0.5Mt), double the 300 million liters (0.25 Mt) produced in 2022. SAF accounted for 3% of all renewable fuels produced, with 97% of renewable fuel production going to other sectors.

In 2024 SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875 billion liters (1.5Mt), accounting for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need, and 6% of renewable fuel capacity. The small percentage of SAF output as a proportion of overall renewable fuel is primarily due to the new capacity coming online in 2023 being allocated to other renewable fuels.

“The doubling of SAF production in 2023 was encouraging as is the expected tripling of production expected in 2024. But even with that impressive growth, SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from 3% this year to 6% in 2024. This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high. Aviation needs between 25% and 30% of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF. At those levels aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation’s decarbonization. It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must prioritize policies to incentivize the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

CAAF/3 outcome

The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030. To reach this level, about 17.5 billion liters (14Mt) of SAF need to be produced.

“Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050. Having set an interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production,” said Walsh.

Demand is not the issue: Every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added $756 million to a record high fuel bill in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25 billion liters (13Mt ) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being announced regularly.
Unlocking supply to meet demand is the challenge that needs to be solved: Projections are for over 78 billion liters (63Mt) of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivizes renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments.

Policy Objectives

Effective production incentives for SAF should support the following objectives:

Accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies
Ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities
Focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production
Identifying and prioritizing high potential production projects for investment support
Delivering a global SAF Accounting Framework

Unlocking Diversification

Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as feedstock. Limited quantities of these necessitate policies to:

Diversify SAF production by increasing production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.
Promote investments in, and the fast-tracking of certification for, new SAF production pathways currently in the developmental phase.
Identify more potential feedstocks to leverage all SAF technologies to provide diversification and regional options, including those with side-benefits such as environmental restoration.

Passenger Support

A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF. Some 86% of travelers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.

Presentation: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (pdf) READ MORE