The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization : A Joint Strategy to Transform Transportation

December 23, 2024

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(U.S. Departments of Energy, Transporation, Housing and Urban Development and Environmental Protection Agency) Transportation connects us. It connects people, countries, and cultures, and draw us closer to one another. It is also the backbone of our economy and critical to supporting the daily needs of all Americans. Our transportation system has been an engine for growth and prosperity over many decades, but that growth has not come without consequences, and that prosperity has not been shared equally. The transportation sector is now the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, contributing to the climate crisis that is worsening quality of life in cities, towns, and rural communities throughout America. Emissions from the transportation sector also contribute to poor air quality. In the United States, these effects disproportionately impact underserved and disadvantaged communities.

To address the climate crisis, we must eliminate nearly all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector by 2050 and implement a holistic strategy to achieve a future mobility system that is clean, safe, secure, accessible, affordable, and equitable, and provides sustainable transportation options for people and goods. This U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization (Blueprint) is the roadmap for how we can address these issues to provide better transportation options, expand affordable and accessible options to improve efficiency, and transition to zero-emission vehicles and fuels.

This Blueprint offers a whole-of-government approach to transform the transportation sector and sets forth an interagency call to action to coordinate and work effectively together. Achieving our goals will require close cooperation with industry, local, regional, state, and Tribal governments, non-profits, and other stakeholder groups, as well as allies around the world. With bold, coordinated actions, together we can build a clean transportation system that is clean, safe, secure, accessible, affordable, and equitable, for all Americans to help create a more sustainable future for generations to come.

CONTENTS
I. Executive Summary 2
1. Introduction 12
a. Context & Vision 12
b. Plan & Strategy 14
2. A Whole-of-Government Approach 21
a. The Agencies 21
b. Guiding Principles 23
c. The Levers 24
3. Transportation Challenges Today 28
a. Current Status 28
b. Changing Mobility Needs 30
c. Mobility Costs and Impact of Fuel Prices 32
4. Strategies to Decarbonize Transportation 34
a. Increasing Convenience by Implementing System-Level and Design Solutions 36
b. Improving Efficiency through Mode Shift and More Efficient Vehicles 43
c. Transitioning to Clean Options by Deploying Zero-Emission Vehicles and Fuels 49
5. Applying the Strategies by Transportation Mode 56
a. Light-Duty Vehicles 58
b. Medium- and Heavy-Duty On-Road Trucks and Buses 61
c. Off-Road Vehicles and Mobile Equipment 64
d. Rail 66
e. Maritime Vessels 68
f. Aviation 71
g. Pipelines 74
6. Conclusion – A Call to Action 76

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IMMEDIATE ACTIONS AND LONG-TERM PLANNING

Implementing immediate strategies that achieve meaningful emissions reductions this decade is essential to reaching our nation’s 2030 emissions reduction goals in line with the president’s commitment and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. We must work concurrently to develop solutions that will result in full economy-wide decarbonization by midcentury. This Blueprint provides a comprehensive, system-level perspective of the entire transportation system across all passenger and freight travel modes and fuels, and lays out three key strategies to achieve decarbonization:

1. Increase convenience by supporting community design and land-use planning at the local and regional levels that ensure that job centers, shopping, schools, entertainment, and essential services are strategically located near where people live to reduce commute burdens, improve walkability and bikeability, and improve quality of life... ...Because every hour we don’t spend sitting in traffic is an hour we can spend focused on the things and the people we love, all while reducing GHG emissions.

2. Improve efficiency by expanding affordable, accessible, efficient, and reliable options like public transportation and rail, and improving the efficiency of all vehicles... ...Because everyone deserves efficient transportation options that will allow them to move around affordably and safely, and because consuming less energy as we move saves money, strengthens our national security, and reduces GHG emissions.

3. Transition to clean options by deploying zeroemission vehicles and fuels for cars, commercial trucks, transit, boats, airplanes, and more... ...Because no one should be exposed to air pollution in their community or on their ride to school or work and eliminating GHG emissions from transportation is imperative to tackle the climate crisis.

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While the first two strategies—increasing convenience and improving efficiency— will contribute to reducing GHG emissions and produce significant co-benefits, transitioning to clean options is expected to drive the majority of emissions reductions. Given the broad array of vehicle types, technologies, and usage patterns, a successful transition will require various vehicle and fuel solutions and must consider full lifecycle emissions. This Blueprint focuses on each major transportation mode and identifies specific decarbonization opportunities and challenges, highlighting the role of various clean technologies for various applications.

To achieve a decarbonized transportation sector, the four agencies and our partners will need to deploy and leverage the full extent of our tools, expertise, and resources, such as:

• Policy and Regulation: The federal government, along with regional, state, local, and Tribal governments, and with international partners and allies, can use a variety of policy and regulatory levers, including long-term planning, standards, and coordinated procurement to support decarbonization of the transportation sector.

• Investments and Financing: All levels of government and the private sector can support decarbonization through strategic investments to deploy infrastructure and support manufacturing that accelerate the transition to cleaner, active, and more efficient modes of transportation and vehicles and facilitate the transition to zero-emission vehicles and sustainable fuels.

• Research and Innovation: All levels of government, the private sector, and philanthropy can focus resources on RD&D to identify and scale technologies and tools that will achieve decarbonization. Reducing the cost of clean energy transportation technologies will be required to drive the scale and pace of adoption needed for sector-wide decarbonization and to achieve market pull to accelerate deployment.

• Data and Tools: Complete and comprehensive information is needed for the public and decision makers to understand the benefits of clean mobility options and the implications for energy, infrastructure, the economy, and our environment.

• Education and Training: Workforce training and education are essential to support a transition to diverse and well-paying clean transportation sector careers. Expanded training opportunities will be especially important for residents and businesses in disadvantaged communities3 .

• Stakeholder Engagement and Public-Private Partnerships: Stakeholder engagement that ensures representation from traditionally underrepresented, overburdened, and underserved communities across all the proposed strategies in this Blueprint will be essential to achieving an equitable transportation future. Partnerships among regional, state, local, and Tribal governments, with disadvantaged communities, the private sector, and philanthropic organizations, will also be critical. All levels of government need to align their efforts and work with private industry and community stakeholders to support sustained and targeted actions.

A CALL TO ACTION

This Blueprint, which is an important step toward a decarbonized transportation future, will be followed by more detailed decarbonization Action Plans. The agencies will develop and implement the Action Plans and will work with other federal agencies, governments at the regional, state, local, and Tribal levels, philanthropic organizations, the private sector, and with global partners to achieve the following milestones:

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Before 2030

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Invest in research and innovation to further develop and demonstrate clean technologies (e.g., achieve battery, hydrogen electrolysis, and sustainable fuel cost targets) and enable seamless integration with energy systems

Continue and expand funding and market incentives to accelerate the uptake of low- or zero-emission vehicles and invest in supporting infrastructure (e.g., vehicle rebates and EV charging infrastructure), especially in low-income and overburdened communities

Develop a robust workforce including by engaging residents and businesses in disadvantaged communities and secure domestic and international supply chain solutions to ensure the U.S. can manufacture enough clean vehicles and fuels to meet rapidly growing demand

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2030-2040

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Transition all new vehicles sales to zero-emission technologies and scale up production and use of sustainable fuels

Ensure infrastructure needed to support clean technologies is in place (e.g., EV charging, clean hydrogen and sustainable fuel refueling) and is fully integrated in the energy systems

Continue to build resilient supply chains, expand infrastructure, and implement a robust workforce development strategy to enable a full transition to zero-emission solutions

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2040-2050

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Support fleet turnover to fully replace legacy vehicles and petroleum infrastructure with clean zero-emission solutions

Fully integrate the clean transportation and clean energy systems to ensure reliable operations of mobility, freight, and energy supply and delivery networks

The above efforts will complement and support the various GHG emissions reduction goals and targets the nation has committed to:

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LIFE-CYCLE EMISSIONS AND EMBODIED CARBON

This Blueprint focuses on the direct transportation emissions from the use phase of transportation vehicles and systems, but our vision considers full life-cycle emissions reductions and recognizes that the transportation sector also induces additional GHG emissions from the production and end-of-life phases. These include GHG emissions from fuel production and processing; vehicle manufacturing and disposal; and construction, maintenance, and disposal of transportation infrastructure. Transportation systems contribute to climate pollution at a variety of points and full life-cycle transportation GHG emissions need to be considered and addressed. The carbon emissions from the full life-cycle of a product or service—often referred to as “embodied carbon”—are significant, although they are not included in the 33% of economywide emissions attributed to the transportation sector in Figure 2. Decarbonizing those sectors of our economy is the focus of other government-wide initiatives that complement this Blueprint. In particular, many transportation decarbonization solutions rely on electricity directly or indirectly (such as the production of hydrogen or certain sustainable fuels). Achieving 100% clean electricity by 2035, largely through new solar and wind energy development, will be a critical co-strategy to support transportation decarbonization REF.

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Transition to clean options by deploying zeroemission vehicles and fuels for all passenger and freight travel modes. This includes light-duty vehicles, commercial trucks, buses, off-road vehicles (such as agricultural and construction equipment), aircraft, locomotives, maritime vessels, and pipelines. This strategy involves adopting highly efficient zero-emission battery vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and sustainable fuels for vehicles and applications that are more challenging to electrify. Reducing the carbon intensity of the fuels that power our vehicles, airplanes, trains, and ships is essential to reducing transportation GHG emissions. Achieving a net-zero economy by 2050 will require transitioning new vehicle sales to zero-emission technologies across all modes of transportation by the mid-2030s, and rapidly converting older and higher-polluting fossil fuel-powered vehicles. This transition will require addressing EV charging and clean fuel infrastructure needs to enable every person and business to meet their mobility requirements.

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To achieve netzero targets, sustainable fuels produced from biomass and waste feedstocks can be used to decarbonize hardto-electrify forms of transportation such as air transport and long-haul shipping that require more energy-dense fuels. Widespread electrification of on-road vehicles will ensure that sufficient amounts of sustainable fuels are available for these harder-to-electrify applications (see textbox on page 54). Even with accelerated fleet turnover, combustion engine vehicles will still be in use after 2040, so sustainable fuels can help decarbonize legacy vehicles during the transition toward zero-emissions technologies. The transition to clean fuels will also have a profound effect on the source of this energy—the electric grid. The grid itself is decarbonizing, and the electricity needs of new transportation systems will require innovations in design and operation of the grid.

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Support Development of Drop-in Sustainable Fuels and Related Infrastructure

Not all transportation applications are prime candidates for electrification. Some applications, such as long-haul aviation, have range and power requirements that are beyond the limits of current and expected electric technologies. Drop-in, energy-dense sustainable fuels will be needed for these applications. These sustainable fuels can also help decarbonize legacy vehicles across other modes and applications during the transition period. While some initial production is already in place, these fuels require targeted support to continue technology progress, including policies and incentives to support market growth in early phases. Ideally, the deployment of these fuels would utilize existing infrastructure, leverage streamlined regulation to ensure interoperability of systems, and support the development of safe and reliable supply chains and a properly trained workforce. Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels are already being developed using standards to ensure they are safe for use and are fully compatible with existing vehicle fleets and fueling infrastructure and minimize emissions in their full life-cycles. As a result, these fuel alternatives are already capitalizing on our existing supply chains and workforce, with even greater opportunities ahead to leverage existing industrial infrastructure by converting petroleum refineries and other facilities for sustainable fuel production.

Develop a Robust Supply Chains and Workforce to Produce Zero-Emission Vehicles and Fuels

A robust domestic supply chain for batteries, charging infrastructure, hydrogen, and sustainable fuels will be critical to support the transition to zeroemission vehicles and fuels. Major advancements in oil and gas technologies allowed the United States to reduce its dependence on foreign fossil fuels and their volatile global markets. As we transition to new clean technologies, it is imperative to support a comprehensive industrial strategy that maintains this energy independence and strengthens our national security by supporting diverse energy sources, by building reliable supply chains, and by developing secure manufacturing solutions. Such a strategy will help ensure reliable access to strategic materials and address potentially stranded assets REF, REF.

The Federal Consortium for Advanced Batteries (FCAB) is bringing together federal agencies to ensure a domestic supply of lithium batteries and to accelerate the development of a robust and secure domestic industrial base REF. Similarly, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge and the National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap articulate steps needed to secure domestic industrial bases for those sustainable fuels, including mitigating safety and environmental risks and developing the necessary codes, standards, and workforce to enable this transition REF.

As we transition from fossil fuels and internal combustion engine vehicles, it is important to create opportunities for workforce development that lead to well-paying jobs, including in manufacturing, vehicle fuel supply, and vehicle maintenance. A strong workforce will be critical to enable the transition and can be supported through training and education programs, including preapprenticeships, apprenticeships, and on-the-job training programs to create well-paying careers.

Many of these types of programs can be targeted to ensure no one is left behind in the transition to a clean energy economy.

Improving vehicle efficiency and rapidly transitioning to zero-emission vehicles and fuels will be critical to achieving near- and long-term emission reduction goals and will require coordinated and sustainable actions from multiple stakeholders: the federal government, local governments, industry, and the general public.

Multiple technology solutions will be needed for various travel modes and applications (see Section 5), and some technologies are not yet commercially viable. Declaring clear cross-agency goals now, with support from industry, federal, and local planners, labor, and other stakeholders, will enable targeted investments in RD&D and deployment and infrastructure and the design of effective policies. It will also provide the lead time needed to complete this transformation and succeed in achieving a net-zeroemissions economy by 2050.

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SUSTAINABLE FUELS SUPPLY

Sustainable fuels offer an opportunity to replace petroleum and reduce GHG emissions. They provide the same advantages and flexibility of petroleum fuels, making them well-positioned to decarbonize applications like long-haul aviation and international maritime shipping that require energy-dense liquid fuels.

Sustainable fuels can also be used with existing infrastructure and vehicles, helping to reduce emissions of legacy vehicles. Multiple production pathways exist to create sustainable fuels using renewable resources including corn, vegetable oils and animal fats, forestry and agriculture residues, wastes, and purpose-grown energy crops and algae, as well as from renewable electricity.

However, the full environmental impact from scaling up feedstocks for sustainable fuels must be part of the full life-cycle emissions analysis, and the amount of available biomass, its geographic distribution, and technologies to sustainably convert that waste carbon into fuel are limited REF. The scale-up of sustainable fuel production requires developing and deploying advanced technologies to reduce cost and improve performance, while ensuring that life-cycle emissions and overall environmental and societal impacts are minimal.

DOE’s Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) estimates that over 50 billion gallons of sustainable biofuels (80% or more GHG emissions reduction) can be cost-effectively produced domestically by leveraging multiple production pathways REF. In a future in which on-road transportation will largely rely on EVs, 50 billion gallons of sustainable fuels would be enough to fully supply aviation, maritime, and rail demand in 2050, as shown in Figure 9.

Although it is uncertain if all pathways will become cost effective, there is a significant effort to demonstrate that SAF can fully replace fossil fuels in aviation. Moreover, synthetic e-fuels (liquid fuels produced using captured carbon and hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water with renewable electricity) could also provide a viable pathway to produce sustainable fuels and increase supply.

Depending on the final fuel product, sustainable fuels could address some local air pollution issues and offer a solution for transportation applications that lack other clean alternatives.

Moreover, some sustainable fuel production pathways offer the opportunity to leverage carbon capture and storage (CCS) to further reduce GHGs and even achieve carbon-negative emissions REF.

Finally, a robust bioenergy industry could also produce chemicals and products for the petroleum industry with significantly lower emissions. Sustainable fuels must be produced in a way that considers climate change, land use, water, and ecosystems implications, and planning will require cross-sectoral expertise and broad collaborations. READ MORE

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