The New RVOs: When 15 Billion Gallons Is Not 15 Billion Gallons

(Clean Fuels Development Coalition) In comments filed with the US EPA on the 2026-27 volume obligations for the Renewable Fuel Standard, the agency was criticized for admitting the 15 billion gallon corn ethanol target is likely unattainable and encouraging any shortages to be met with RINS from the Biomass Diesel category.

While commending EPA for the timely release of the proposed rule, the Clean Fuels Development Coalition (CFDC) and the South Dakota Farmers Union (SDFU) said making the measure of compliance to RINS rather than actual gallons will undermine the program, particularly as it relates to corn ethanol.

“The implied corn ethanol volume of 15 billion gallons is significantly eroded under this system; in fact, EPA clearly states it assumes that level of corn ethanol will not be met. The only basis for that assumption is the continuation of the vapor pressure waiver being held to 10% blends,” said CFDC Executive Director Doug Durante.

SDFU President Doug Sombke said “Corn ethanol has been the shining star of the entire RFS—it is the one category of renewables that has consistently delivered volume, and we are calling on EPA to take action to get more ethanol into the motor fuel pool, not less. What is frustrating is that we have surpluses of corn and billions of gallons of capacity idled because we can’t get market access.”

The commenters challenged the rule for what they termed as policy inconsistencies. “EPA states that the goal of the policy is supporting domestic production of renewable fuels………ensuring a growing supply. Under this system, what are essentially paper RINS can substitute for physical gallons—when those gallons are readily available—is the opposite of ensuring a growing supply. EPA goes on to say “the proposed volumes reflect the significant growth potential for renewable fuel production. That statement is simply meaningless when the program seems to be designed to freeze the corn/conventional fuel volumes below even what the statute calls for.”

The commenters offered several complementary actions to this rule EPA can take, notably holding the conventional category to physical gallons since there is more than enough ethanol. On a parallel track EPA should be leading the effort to allow the current Rvp waiver to apply to all blends. They note that that current legislative efforts to extend the waiver but to limit it to 15% fails to capture the benefits that come with much higher volumes such as E30. An E30 cert fuel, increasing the minimum octane standard, enforcing aromatic limits, and correcting faulty emissions modeling are all actions that grow the market as EPA says it is trying to do. Assuming even a modest voluntary adoption of these high-octane blends would produce so many RINS that the cost of compliance would be substantially reduced.

“We understand these initiatives may be considered outside the scope of this rule but EPA has the authority to propose other rules that will ensure the full potential of the RFS. Thinking that simply setting volumes solves everything is like bringing a bat to a baseball game but not a ball. Between the potential for RINS to reduce ethanol volumes, small refinery waivers, and possibly be capping the future of the industry to 15%, we could quickly be going backwards,” said Durante.

Sombke added that the challenges facing agriculture are dire with reduced demand, reduced exports, higher input costs and lower land values presenting a significant challenge to American Farmers. Failing to support increased ethanol production well beyond current levels will only add to these difficulties. READ MORE