The New RVOs: When 15 Billion Gallons Is Not 15 Billion Gallons

August 10, 2025

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(Clean Fuels Development Coalition) In comments filed with the US EPA on the 2026-27 volume obligations for the Renewable Fuel Standard, the agency was criticized for admitting the 15 billion gallon corn ethanol target is likely unattainable and encouraging any shortages to be met with RINS from the Biomass Diesel category.

While commending EPA for the timely release of the proposed rule, the Clean Fuels Development Coalition (CFDC) and the South Dakota Farmers Union (SDFU) said making the measure of compliance to RINS rather than actual gallons will undermine the program, particularly as it relates to corn ethanol.

“The implied corn ethanol volume of 15 billion gallons is significantly eroded under this system; in fact, EPA clearly states it assumes that level of corn ethanol will not be met. The only basis for that assumption is the continuation of the vapor pressure waiver being held to 10% blends,” said CFDC Executive Director Doug Durante.

SDFU President Doug Sombke said “Corn ethanol has been the shining star of the entire RFS—it is the one category of renewables that has consistently delivered volume, and we are calling on EPA to take action to get more ethanol into the motor fuel pool, not less. What is frustrating is that we have surpluses of corn and billions of gallons of capacity idled because we can’t get market access.”

The commenters challenged the rule for what they termed as policy inconsistencies. “EPA states that the goal of the policy is supporting domestic production of renewable fuels………ensuring a growing supply. Under this system, what are essentially paper RINS can substitute for physical gallons—when those gallons are readily available—is the opposite of ensuring a growing supply. EPA goes on to say “the proposed volumes reflect the significant growth potential for renewable fuel production. That statement is simply meaningless when the program seems to be designed to freeze the corn/conventional fuel volumes below even what the statute calls for.”

The commenters offered several complementary actions to this rule EPA can take, notably holding the conventional category to physical gallons since there is more than enough ethanol. On a parallel track EPA should be leading the effort to allow the current Rvp waiver to apply to all blends. They note that that current legislative efforts to extend the waiver but to limit it to 15% fails to capture the benefits that come with much higher volumes such as E30. An E30 cert fuel, increasing the minimum octane standard, enforcing aromatic limits, and correcting faulty emissions modeling are all actions that grow the market as EPA says it is trying to do. Assuming even a modest voluntary adoption of these high-octane blends would produce so many RINS that the cost of compliance would be substantially reduced.

“We understand these initiatives may be considered outside the scope of this rule but EPA has the authority to propose other rules that will ensure the full potential of the RFS. Thinking that simply setting volumes solves everything is like bringing a bat to a baseball game but not a ball. Between the potential for RINS to reduce ethanol volumes, small refinery waivers, and possibly be capping the future of the industry to 15%, we could quickly be going backwards,” said Durante.

Sombke added that the challenges facing agriculture are dire with reduced demand, reduced exports, higher input costs and lower land values presenting a significant challenge to American Farmers. Failing to support increased ethanol production well beyond current levels will only add to these difficulties. READ MORE

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Are Things Big and Beautiful for Biofuels? (Clean Fuels Development Coalition (CFDC) and the South Dakota Farmers Union (SDFU))
Summary of Proposed 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard Volume Requirements (EcoEngineers)

Excerpt from Clean Fuels Development Coalition and South Dakota Farmers Union: Ever since the RFS volumes became discretionary to EPA – although in a sense they always were – it has unnecessarily taken a lot of time, resources and political capital to argue for what we are entitled to. It has been a contentious issue every year – often with volumes not being announced months late and into the following year of the compliance period.

But wait, you say. EPA proposed the full 15 billion gallons targeted for ethanol and a hefty 5 billion gallons of biodiesel. Happy days, right? Well, here is the twist: EPA’s proposal is based on RINs, as opposed to wet/actual gallons. (Quick refresher: every gallon of biofuels is assigned a renewable identification number, or a RIN. That is what obligated parties turn in to EPA to show they complied with the law.)

That is a significant distinction. A RIN is essentially a piece of paper, and EPA has come right out and said they do not anticipate 15 billion gallons of actual ethanol to be used. And why is that? Because they continue to hide behind the blend wall, they have constructed that, other than the temporary allowance for ethanol to be used during the summer months, limits blends to 10 percent volume. With a gasoline market of roughly 137 billion gallons in 2023-24, 13.5 billion of that was ethanol. Assuming we stay at that level of demand, how do you put 15 billion gallons into that pool if limited to 10 percent? You don’t. The missing 1-2 billion RINS will be pieces of paper that come from the multiplier that biomass diesel gets, which is 1.5 or more RINs for every gallon. Extra RINs after the Advanced Biofuel category is met can be used to satisfy the conventional category which is where corn ethanol resides.

So right out of the gate we are not likely to see 15 billion gallons of ethanol. Further eroding the 15 billion ethanol gallons and undermining the program is the small refinery waiver provision that currently has a line around the block of nearly 180 requests to wriggle out of the requirement. While we do not have at this writing a definite amount that will be exempted, it could be 1-2 billion gallons, and it is not known if EPA would simply reduce that from the total or reassign it to the remaining refiners.

The RIN system is both the strength and the weakness of the RFS. When the petroleum industry signed on to the RFS so they could get out of forced oxygenate requirements, they fully supported RINS. It gave them the ability to meet RFS volumes by either using renewables or to use RINS, either purchased from others or generated from their own use. That flexibility is a strength of the program.

When RIN prices are too high, it becomes a weakness in that refiners can claim the RIN costs are an unfair economic burden as well as costs that are passed on to consumers.

Here is where E15 and higher blends could enter the picture and save the day. While some RINS above a 10 percent volume will be generated, the fact that this is an “emergency waiver” for the summer leaves the issue unresolved so we can once again argue, fight, cajole, beg and stamp our feet calling for a permanent solution. If any blend of ethanol was allowed to be used throughout the year, these higher volumes would generate so many RINS they could be worth pennies, and the complaints would stop and the true full volumes would be met with gallons and not paper RINS.

By the way, the permanent solution both corn and ethanol stakeholders are supporting is federal legislation, and that’s great but the bills being considered would limit the extension of the waiver to only 15 percent. Previous legislative efforts such as the now forgotten Next Generation Fuels Act would have extended RVP relief to all blends. For the industry to sign on to a deal that caps future growth to 15 percent when the higher the blend volume the more benefits are provided is puzzling, to say the least. If 15 is good, 20 is even better and 30 is a home run, particularly given the fact that vapor pressure is constantly decreasing as volumes (of ethanol) increase.

Further strengthening the argument for any blend is the data we are getting from Brazil. The mandatory 27 percent volume blend is now increasing to 30 percent. A common misconception with regards to Brazil is that these higher ethanol volumes are only possible because all their vehicles are flex fuel. This is simply not true – hundreds of thousands of vehicles in Brazil are imported and not considered flex. In 2024 alone, 365,000 vehicles were imported that were not flex, electric or hybrids. There have been no performance or operational problems with an entire nation that runs on a minimum of E27. Add to that the fact that Brazil’s air quality is among the best in the world and it begs the question of what are we doing here in the U.S. where we can’t get past 10 percent?

Growth Energy VP Chris Bliley, who has been at the forefront of the effort to secure E15 approval, recently noted in an interview that yearround E15 would spur demand for E30. While that is true, as we have seen from the Brazilian experience, getting to that level is a stairstep exercise and we need Rvp approval for the 20 and 25 percent volumes that will be needed to get to the pinnacle of 30 percent.

With electric vehicles in free fall, this is the time to ensure we get the minimum gallons we are entitled to under the RFS but also demand the ability to blend at any level. READ MORE

Excerpt from EcoEngineers: On June 13, 2025, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) released the proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and 2027, with a partial waiver of the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement, and other changes. Stakeholders are invited to send comments on or before August 8, 2025.

The USEPA’s proposal reflects a deliberate approach—one that aims to support domestic biofuel and feedstock production while discouraging imports and clarifying compliance expectations.

EcoEngineers is closely tracking the USEPA’s RFS rulemaking process and how it impacts renewable fuel producers and markets. Our team of experts is here to help you navigate these proposed changes through tailored education, stakeholder engagement, regulatory advisory, and compliance management services. Whether you're a fuel producer, importer, or obligated party, we’re ready to support your success in this dynamic regulatory environment.

Below, we break down the key elements of the proposal.

Volume Targets: New Growth, New Metrics

The USEPA proposes to express biomass-based diesel targets in Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) rather than gallons, using a conversion factor of 1.6 RINs per gallon. While this shift aligns biomass-based diesel with other fuel categories, the overall volume growth is modest (Table 1). Cellulosic biofuel volumes show only slight increases from 2025 to 2027 and remain below the original 2025 targets. Implied conventional renewable fuel targets remain flat at 15 billion gallons, while total renewable fuel volumes inch upward from 22.33 billion RINs in 2025 to 24.46 billion in 2027.

Table 1: RFS Volume Requirements for 2023-2027 (Billion RINs)a

	Volume Requirement Established in Set Rule 1			Proposed Volume Requirement
	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Cellulosic Biofuel	0.84	1.01b	1.19c	1.30	1.36
Biomass-Based Diesel	4.51	4.86	5.36	7.12	7.50
Advanced Biofuel	5.94	6.54	7.33	9.02	9.46
Total Renewable Fuel	20.94e	21.54	22.33	24.02	24.46

-USEPA

Notes:

a One RIN is equivalent to one ethanol-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel.

b USEPA originally established a cellulosic biofuel volume requirement of 1.09 billion gallons for 2024 in the Set 1 Rule. USEPA subsequently reduced this volume requirement to 1.01 billion RINs in a separate action.

c USEPA originally established a cellulosic biofuel volume requirement of 1.38 billion gallons for 2025 in the Set 1 Rule. The USEPA is proposing to reduce this volume requirement to 1.19 billion RINs in this action.

d Through 2025, the BBD volume requirement was established in physical gallons rather than RINs. The USEPA is proposing to specify the BBD volume requirement in RINs, consistent with the other three renewable fuel categories, rather than physical gallons. For the sake of comparison, the USEPA converted the BBD volume requirements for 2023–2025 from physical gallons to RINs using the BBD conversion factor in 40 CFR 80.1405(c) of 1.6 RINs per gallon.

e The total renewable fuel volume requirement for 2023 does not include the 0.25 billion RIN supplemental standard.

Finalized 2024 Cellulosic Biofuel Volume Partial Waiver

The USEPA finalized a partial waiver for the 2024 cellulosic biofuel requirement, reducing the target from 1.38 billion to 1.19 billion RINs. This follows a similar adjustment for 2025 and reflects market saturation and ongoing production delays in the cellulosic sector.

Key Policy Changes and Clarifications

Import RIN Reduction: To reduce reliance on foreign feedstocks and mitigate fraud risks, the USEPA proposes a 50% reduction in RIN value for imported renewable fuels and fuels made from foreign feedstocks. This change would apply starting in 2026 and includes new reporting and liability provisions for importers and domestic producers.
Removal of Renewable Electricity: The USEPA proposes to remove renewable electricity as a qualifying fuel under the RFS, citing its limited role in displacing fossil fuels in transportation.
Adjusted Equivalence Values: To better reflect fossil-derived hydrogen content, the USEPA proposes new equivalence values: 1.6 for renewable diesel and jet fuel, and 1.4 for renewable naphtha. Producers may still apply for alternative values.
RIN Generation Timing: The proposal clarifies when RINs must be generated, depending on the fuel type and production location. For gaseous fuels like renewable natural gas (RNG) and compressed or liquified natural gas (CNG/LNG), RINs must be generated within five business days of meeting all requirements.
Biodiesel Use Restrictions: Reinforcing the program’s focus on transportation fuels by proposing RINs cannot be generated for pure or neat biodiesel used for process heat or power generation.

Expanding and Refining Fuel Pathways

The USEPA proposes to add new pathways for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) derived from biogenic waste oils, and to clarify existing pathways with more precise language. Two new biointermediates—activated sludge and converted oils—are also proposed for inclusion.

Compliance and Oversight Enhancements

Small Refinery Reporting: Even if exempt from RFS obligations, small refineries would still be required to file annual compliance reports and address any carried-over deficits.
Auditor Registration: Third-party auditors would only need to renew their registration every two years instead of annually, reducing administrative burden.
Engineering Review Site Visits: Site visits must occur within six months of submitting a registration request to ensure accuracy and relevance.

Biogas Regulatory Reform Updates

The USEPA also proposes to allow biogas batches to be defined by calendar month and to expand approved measurement and calibration methods for RNG and biogas. These updates aim to align regulatory requirements with industry practices and improve data accuracy.

About the Expert

Lisa Hanke, director, regulatory engagement at EcoEngineers, has worked in the renewable fuels space for more than 18 years. Ms. Hanke led government relations and regulatory outreach in the U.S. Europe and Canada. She has extensive experience with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) and she closely follows the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) and a variety of other carbon programs across the world. Ms. Hanke was responsible for evaluations of policy, regulatory engagement, compliance, and life-cycle analysis (LCA). She has also sat on the board of directors for the Advanced Biofuels Association of Canada, the Advanced Biofuels Business Council, and the Leaders of Sustainable Biofuels. READ MORE

Tags

Transportation Fuels Policy small refinery exemption (SRE) RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) renewable volume obligation (RVO) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS and RFS2) Reid vapor pressure (RVP) Regulations-Federal public comments one pound waiver octane MOVES (motor vehicle emissions simulator) modeling system modeling market forces Legislation-Federal High Octane Fuel (HOF) ethanol/bioethanol ethanol blend wall EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) environmental policy E30 E15 E10 D-6 (renewable fuel) RINs D-4 (bio-based diesel) RINs corn ethanol certification fuels Blend wall aromatics Agricultural Policy naphtha/bionaphtha/renewable naphtha Bio LPG (Bio Liquid Petroleum Gas) sludge precursors/biointermediates Biogas

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