The IPCC's Land Report Shows Shipping the Potential of Sustainable Biofuels, but How to Get There?

by Will Dawson (Sustainable Shipping Initiative) The IPCC’s Special Report on Land shows that biofuels can sustainably play a part in shipping’s decarbonisation journey. But with aviation and other sectors circling around a finite resource, shipping needs to invest in the exotic options of ammonia or hydrogen to make them viable by 2030 and be sure of a net-zero pathway.

Cargo ships are famously slow to change course. And having worked with the shipping industry for many years on decarbonisation, I think that’s rather metaphoric. So after the UN-backed International Maritime Organization finally adopted a carbon target – to reduce emissions by 50% (against a baseline of 2008) by 2050 - late last year (a reasonable start, but not enough), and as leading players push on with their own, more ambitious targets (e.g. Sweden and Maersk), there is finally impetus to turn the rudder. Yet ask a shipping executive which is the best route to take and you will either get a quizzical silence or a vigorous case for one ‘winning’ option, be it gas, nuclear, hydrogen, ammonia or biofuels. The trouble is there’s no consensus, and with a ship’s lifespan of at least 20 years, investors, ship builders, ports and fuel suppliers need to know what infrastructure to start investing within the next 18 months or so.

The options for shipping decarbonisation
Currently virtually all 50,000 or so merchant ships burn heavy fuel oil or liquid natural gas and that creates 3.1% of global carbon emissions. The alternatives are for ships to burn zero-carbon hydrogen or ammonia produced by renewable electricity. These are attractive routes as they are scalable, but they are at an early stage of development and would require very substantial investment in R&D, plus changes in infrastructure on ships and in fuelling. Existing ships with fuel tanks cannot realistically be converted to store and burn them so they are options for new vessels only.

Conversely, biofuels - liquid or gas hydrocarbons produced from crops or waste biomaterials - are viewed as a ‘drop in’ solution as they are very similar to the fossil fuel-heavy oil or liquefied natural gas currently burnt. So they can be used in existing ships with light touch adjustments to their engines and fuel tanks. They can and are fuelling vessels already, making them an attractive solution to at least start the maritime industry’s decarbonisation journey.

The main challenges, amongst a formidable set, are the indirect carbon emissions that can result if they are sourced from crops grown on land, largely due to land use change to grow crop-based fuels.

But they do also show that there are scenarios where bioenergy crops have little impact on biodiversity or food security, and, conversely, ones where they are highly impactful.

At the seminars we asked participants the question ‘how much of the energy needs of shipping will be provided by biofuels?’ We have found that the range of forecasts in 2030 spans from just a few percent up to 20% and most see its prevalence declining up to 2050 as electricity, hydrogen or ammonia become increasingly viable and available at scale.

Stakeholders’ main sustainability concerns are unsurprisingly around land use change from land crops, as well as biofuels being made from waste and residues from industries including food or timber production. This isn’t a universal split: some believe that countries with high biofuel production like Brazil have the spare capacity to up production from current farmed land sustainably. Notable among the residue concerns is a focus on the by-products from palm oil production, which is viewed as increasing the viability of the palm oil industry and thereby leading to increased tropical deforestation.

The inquiry has helped to identify the conditions needed for a smooth and rapid decarbonisation:

The inquiry continues and you have the opportunity to be involved through our high-level event during Climate Week in New York City on 25 September. A report on our findings and recommendations will launch in late 2019. Please be involved. We will be working out what to add to this list and how to achieve these through the rest of our inquiry. We are keen that this really leads to firm decisions and actions so that shipping doesn’t just turn the tiller but calls “fast ahead” as well. READ MORE