Reg Modlin High Octane Low Carbon Fuel Blog Series

BioRefineries/Renewable Fuel Production, Business News/Analysis, certification, Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Agency/Executive Branch, Feedstocks, Field/Orchard/Plantation Crops/Residues, Infrastructure, Opinions, Policy, R & D Focus, Sustainability, Vehicle/Engine/Motor

October 7, 2019

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(Natual Resources Solutions) Reg Modlin is a senior NRS Advisor and a veteran of 40-plus years in the automotive industry. In the following posts, he examines the steps that have been taken – and need to be taken – to attain the transportation fuel that best serves our nation for years ahead.

Part 1: FUEL FOR THE FUTURE – An Introduction

Part 2: FUEL FOR THE FUTURE – What is the Overall Picture of a “Future Fuel” Today?

Part 3: FUEL FOR THE FUTURE – Ethanol is Available Now to Provide HOLC Gasoline at Least Cost to Consumers

Part 4: FUEL FOR THE FUTURE – Infrastructure on Track to Support On-Time Transition to HOLC Ethanol-Based Fuel by 2023

Part 5: FUEL FOR THE FUTURE – EPA’s Task is to Assure Protection of the Health of Americans via the Best Fuel/Vehicle Performance at Least Cost

Excerpts: Retail price may be the single most import feature that will drive commercial success of a future fuel. The fact that finished ethanol is projected to remain at a lower cost than regular blending stock assures the potential for an E25 product to achieve a lower cost at retail than comparable regular gasoline. This factor is demonstrated routinely when looking at contemporary pump pricing for E15 and E85 products currently in the market place. A new HOLC product on the pump island at a price lower that comparable regular and premium products would be a no-brainer for
customers.

Notable here is that the refining sector, in support of a study conducted by the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR), concluded that increased refinery and infrastructure costs would have to be covered by higher retail prices. That study was limited by an assumption that not enough corn and ethanol could be produced to supply a high octane, mid-level ethanol market need. With that assumption removed (accepting that the corn and ethanol sectors can support increasing demand) the result dramatically changes to show the potential for widening pump price advantage using higher percentage ethanol blends.

With government support for increasing octane in domestic gasoline, and adoption of a corresponding Certification Fuel Specification, automobile manufacturers and fuel marketers have stated that they are capable of supporting deployment of fuel and vehicles by late 2023. Using 25-percent ethanol by volume, 98 RON can be achieved using current gasoline base stock as presently produced by refineries. This method will result in a retail product that is better than current Premium brands at a cost less that current Regular brands. READ MORE

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