Fueling Africa’s Flight: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in Africa

March 10, 2026

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by Megersa Abate, Robert Malina, Gonca Seber, Charles E. Schlumberger (World Bank Group) Africa’s aviation sector is poised for rapid growth, with passenger traffic expected to double over its 2023 level by 2043, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA 2024). This expansion opens up significant economic opportunities, including increased connectivity, tourism, and trade, which are essential for the continent’s economic integration and growth.

This growth also underscores the urgent need to address the environmental challenges associated with aviation emissions. Without action, the sector’s carbon footprint could significantly undermine sustainability goals, increasing the pressure on Africa’s ecosystems and global commitments to climate change mitigation.

This study explores the potential for producing sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in four African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Rather than serving as a full feasibility analysis or detailed project proposal, it uses a techno-economic approach to showcase Africa’s potential through examples from these countries. The analysis highlights strategies for cost reduction and risk management, with a focus on the higher selling prices of SAF in Africa, which are driven by elevated risk premiums and green premiums. By assessing feedstock availability, production technologies, and policy frameworks, the study provides actionable insights to accelerate SAF adoption in Africa. The aim is to bridge the cost gap with conventional fossil-based jet fuel, position Africa as an integral part of sustainable aviation value chain, and contribute significantly to reducing carbon emissions.

The aviation industry sees SAF as essential for achieving net-zero emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources. The “basket of measures” of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for reducing aviation emissions includes four components: improving aircraft technology, enhancing operational efficiency, promoting SAF, and implementing market-based measures such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) to offset residual emissions (ICAO 2019). SAF can significantly reduce aviation’s lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with ambitious adoption potentially lowering emissions by 57 percent by 2050 compared with business-as-usual scenarios (Malina, Abate, Schlumberger, and Navarro Pineda 2022). To do so, however, SAF production must scale from 0.5 metric tons (Mt) in 2024 (0.5 percent of total jet fuel consumption) to 500 Mt by 2050—a 1,000-fold increase—presenting both opportunities and challenges (IATA 2024).

SAF represents a transformative opportunity for Africa’s aviation industry, enabling a shift toward greener, more resilient operations. The ICAO projects that a significant portion of SAF production will come from developing countries and emerging markets, where biogenic feedstock is abundant and renewable energy potential high (ICAO 2022a). However, countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) remain significantly underrepresented in the SAF supply chain, often relegated to just exporting raw feedstocks while importing refined SAF.

This disparity is particularly concerning given the immense capital investment required to scale SAF production. Projections by the World Bank indicate that scaling SAF globally will require annual greenfield investments of up to $124 billion, culminating in over 370 SAF–producing facilities by the late 2030s and early 2040s (Malina and others 2022). For context, a single 4,000-barrel per day (BPD) hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA)–based SAF facility requires $200–$300 million in upfront capital.1 The size of this investment underscores the opportunity for developing countries to move beyond raw material exportation to becoming integral players in SAF production.

The stakes are particularly high for Africa. Locally produced SAF can reduce dependency on imported jet fuel, conserving foreign exchange reserves and stabilizing costs in a sector vulnerable to volatile global oil prices. SAF production also presents a significant opportunity to enhance energy security and drive economic resilience by creating value-added industries. Although the greatest environmental benefits of SAF are realized in local production and consumption, exporting SAF to foreign markets or selling through book-and-claim platforms presents an economic diversification opportunity for many African countries.2 Without active integration into the SAF production chain, African countries risk missing out on these benefits, exacerbating their dependency on imports.

Despite its promise, SAF development in Africa faces significant challenges. The continent’s aviation industry must contend with high production costs, limited infrastructure, and fragmented policy frameworks that hinder scalability. Jet fuel prices in Africa are about 17 percent higher than the global average, because of logistical inefficiencies, limited refining capacity, and risk premiums associated with currency volatility.3 Feedstock availability, while abundant in many regions, requires improved supply chain management to ensure consistent production at competitive prices. The cost disparity between SAF and conventional jet fuel underscores the need for targeted interventions. With coordinated policy support, international partnerships, and investments in infrastructure and technology, Africa has the potential to overcome these challenges and position itself as a global player in sustainable aviation practices.

Country Insights

This report identifies pathways for overcoming shared challenges and leveraging advantages to establish an SAF industry across the continent. Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa were chosen because of their strategic importance in Africa’s aviation sector, abundance of an array of feedstocks, and varying infrastructure and policy levels. Kenya’s emphasis on biofuel feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), and castor together with strong renewable energy policy ambitions makes it vital for SAF development. Ethiopia’s access to sugarcane and municipal solid waste (MSW) and its strong aviation presence highlight its potential. South Africa’s industrial infrastructure and expertise in Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology position it well for synthetic fuel (e-SAF) production using green hydrogen. Nigeria’s jet fuel refining capabilities and proximity to major airports provide a logistical advantage for lipid co-processing. These countries exemplify Africa’s SAF potential.4

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Investment Needs and Production Costs

The report outlines the investment needs and potential economic benefits of establishing SAF production facilities in the four countries (table ES1). Each country’s unique resources and infrastructure are considered, in ordered to highlight viable pathways for SAF development and their respective impacts on local economies and jet fuel demand:

• Kenya: A 4,000-BPD HEFA plant producing SAF from UCO and castor oil requires an estimated investment of $235 million. This facility could meet 15 percent of Kenya’s current jet fuel demand and 10 percent of its projected demand in 2030.

• Ethiopia: An investment of $376 million in ATJ for 1,445 BPD of SAF would meet 6 percent of jet fuel demand. 2,000-BPD MSW-FT facility requires a significantly higher investment ($547 million) but offers higher production capacity, potentially meeting 4 percent of the projected jet fuel demand and 1.2 percent of projected diesel demand in 2030.

• Nigeria: Co-processing offers a cost-effective approach to SAF production in Nigeria, leveraging existing refinery infrastructure.5 The Dangote refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 BPD, or other refineries in the country could produce 3,321–5,950 BPD of SAF through co-processing.

• South Africa: A 1,000-BPD power-to-liquid (PtL) facility using green hydrogen and industrial waste carbon requires an investment of $156 million. It could produce 39 million liters of SAF annually, meeting about 3 percent of South Africa’s jet fuel demand. The investment costs for the PtL facility do not include the cost of green hydrogen production, which could amount to several billion dollars for a large-scale facility. The techno-economic analyses present promising pathways, such as FT from municipal solid waste and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) from sugarcane and molasses.

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1 HEFA–based SAF—produced from feedstocks such as used cooking oil, tallow, and oil plants—has reached commercial scale and constitutes virtually all the SAF currently available on the market.

2 A book-and-claim system is a chain-of-custody model that allows buyers to purchase SAF credits without physically receiving the fuel, enabling decarbonization even in locations where SAF is not available. This system promotes SAF market growth by incentivizing production while allowing airlines and companies to claim environmental benefits through a certified tracking mechanism (ICAO 2022b).

3 Fuel—airlines’ largest cost—is often distributed by cartel-like entities on the continent that squeeze cash out of airlines. It needs to be transported over long distances, as a quarter of countries on the continent are landlocked, a problem exacerbated by poor infrastructure (Abate and others 2022).

4 These countries must explore multiple SAF pathways and feedstocks, as the examples provided, though based on realistic local market data, are not definitive. READ MORE

Table of Contents

List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................vii

List of Tables ....................................................................................................................................................x

Acknowledgments .........................................................................................................................................xii

Abbreviations.................................................................................................................................................xiii

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................xv

Context ................................................................................................................................................................ xv

Country Insights ............................................................................................................................................... xvi

Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................................................................xxiv

References ......................................................................................................................................................xxvii

01. Introduction................................................................................................................................................1

The SAF Opportunity and Challenge...............................................................................................................2

Scope of Analysis ................................................................................................................................................6

References ..........................................................................................................................................................10

02. Kenya Deep Dive ...................................................................................................................................... 11

Overview.............................................................................................................................................................. 12

Description of Country Case .......................................................................................................................... 13

Conversion Technology and Feedstocks ...................................................................................................... 16

Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 17

Results .................................................................................................................................................................24

Conclusion and Recommendations ..............................................................................................................3

7 Annex 2A Key Assumptions and Data for Techno-Economic Analysis of Kenya ............................. 39

References ......................................................................................................................................................... 45

03. Ethiopia Deep Dive..................................................................................................................................48

Overview............................................................................................................................................................. 49

Description of Country Case.......................................................................................................................... 50 Feedstocks and Conversion Technology..................................................................................................... 53

Techno-Economic Model and Results ......................................................................................................... 58

Conclusion and Recommendations ..............................................................................................................72

Annex 3A Key Assumptions and Data for Techno-Economic Analysis of Ethiopia ..........................76

References ......................................................................................................................................................... 86

Fueling

04. Nigeria Deep Dive....................................................................................................................................88

Overview............................................................................................................................................................. 89

Description of Country Case..........................................................................................................................90

Conversion Technology and Feedstock Potential .................................................................................... 92

Techno-Economic Model and Results ......................................................................................................... 94

Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 99

Initiatives by Multilateral Development Banks ...................................................................................... 102

Annex 4A Key Assumptions and Data for Techno-Economic Analysis of Nigeria ......................... 103

References ....................................................................................................................................................... 106

05. South Africa Deep Dive........................................................................................................................108

Overview........................................................................................................................................................... 109

Description of Country Case......................................................................................................................... 110

Feedstock Potential and Plant Design ....................................................................................................... 113

Techno-Economic Model and Results......................................................................................................... 116

Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................................................................124

Annex 5A. Key Assumptions and Data for Techno-Economic Analysis of South Africa ...............126

References ........................................................................................................................................................128

06. Conclusion and Recommendations.....................................................................................................131

Short-Term Recommendations (One to Three Years)............................................................................133

Medium-Term Recommendations (Three to Seven Years)....................................................................133

Long-Term Recommendations (More Than Seven Years) .....................................................................134

Appendix A Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways, Market Trends, and Regional Opportunities ..................................................................................................................................135

Image Credits................................................................................................................................................141

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Tags

water used cooking oil (UCO)/yellow grease United Nations' International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Transportation Fuels Policy Sustainability sugarcane South Africa Renewable Diesel/Green Diesel/HVO/Paraffinic Diesel precursors/biointermediates power-to-x/gas/liquid Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) oil refineries Nigeria MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) molasses markets/sales market forces Kenya Jetfuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)) Investing industrial waste gases import/export Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen HEFA (Hydro-processed esters and fatty acids) Fischer-Tropsch/FT Feedstocks Ethiopia environmental policy energy security energy independence electrolysis economic development CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) conversion technology co-products co-processing castor bean Carbon Dioxide (CO2) book-and-claim Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) alcohol-to-jet (ATJ)/ethanol-to-jet (ETJ) Africa

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