Cure or Curse: Can 'Next-Generation' Biofuels Turbocharge the Net Zero Transition?

August 08, 2022

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by Cecilia Keating (Business Green) ... But Gordon McManus, research director for refining and oil products team for the Europe, Middle East, Africa region at leading research and consulting business Wood Mackenzie, said the biofuels industry might be poised to "come of age" in the 2020s, after a somewhat bumpy ride in recent years. "There's a lot of regulatory and industry momentum behind the biofuels sector at the moment," he told BusinessGreen. "Most of the oil majors have talked about making investments in biofuels, and want biofuels as part of their fuel mix going forward. If I rewind 12 years that wasn't the case."

Indeed, the enthusiasm for biofuels that emerged in the late 2000s was not always matched by the action in the years that followed, as the food-versus-fuel debate grew louder, concern about fuels' environmental impacts intensified, and the blending and production limitations for so-called 'first generation' biofuel technologies become apparent.

The US missed its noughties-era target to consume 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022, of which more than a third had to be non-food-crop derived. The EU, on the other hand, announced earlier this year it had met its decades-old target to have a 10 per cent renewable fuel mix target for the transportation sector by 2020. But this achievement was driven by a small number of member states going over and above expectations, with 15 countries - including energy heavyweights France, Germany, and Spain - failing to meet the goal.

McManus said the growth of the biofuels sector throughout the 2020s would depend on how quickly industry and government managed to scale industrial-scale production of biofuels produced from non-food crops. Potential feedstocks could range from agricultural byproducts that sit outside the food system, such as wood waste or corn stover, and municipal waste and recycled plastic waste, he said. "Some studies suggest that if we use non-food feedstocks, such as municipal solid waste, recycled plastic waste, or agricultural and forestry residues, biofuels' potential could be up to 20 million barrels a day [up from three million today]," McManus noted. "But it is going to require investment, government support, and development of technologies that are only just becoming commercial or slightly pre-commercial."

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Today, these fuels are largely used as blending agents with conventional petrol or diesel fuel, reducing the carbon intensity of the fuel and helping to reduce emissions from vehicle tailpipes. Standard E10 petrol in the UK, for instance, has a 10 per cent ethanol blend. Brazil, a major biofuels producer and consumer, has been blending higher levels of ethanol produced from sugarcane into its cars for more than 40 years.

But McManus said research was underway into exploiting alternative feedstocks, as well as advanced gasification technology, which would enable operators to sidestep combustion when converting waste into energy. Meanwhile, the cellulosic ethanol market, which relies on corn stover, wood waste, straw or plant material not used in food production, such as switchgrass or miscanthus, to produce biofuel is growing rapidly, he said.

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"That looks feasible," he said, of targets to ensure around five per cent of jet fuels come from SAFs by 2030. "It requires continuing to grow these next generation feedstocks - cooking oil, tallows, waste oils from the forestry industry or other industries - and diverting some of that material away from the road transport sector. But the longer-term targets very heavily rely on the development of a fairly large-scale commercial agricultural waste or municipal solid waste to biofuel technology, or the development of hydrogen-based fuels."

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Campaigners have argued that if the aviation sector wants to meet its SAF commitments it needs to ramp up investments in e-fuels - otherwise known as electrofuels, synthetic fuels, or power-to-liquid-fuels - which can be produced with zero emissions and without land use implications by combining green hydrogen, captured carbon, and water.

Whilst more expensive to produce than biofuels, campaigners have argued capital investments in the embryonic sector could quickly pay off for the environment and the climate. In the shipping sector, campaigners are similarly calling for companies and regulators to focus on hydrogen-based fuels, such as ammonia or e-kerosene, with are less technologically mature but promise to have fewer environmental impacts than biofuels that are always going to face questions over how to secure sufficient feedstocks.

McManus said there was space for e-fuels and hydrogen-based fuels to grow in tandem. "There's room for them to work together, but also with a little bit of healthy competition, in that you can take the hydrogen fuels even further," he said. "And if you capture carbon, you can produce a synthetic e-fuel."

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But, despite this economic reality and their many detractors, McManus says it is incontestable that biofuels will provide one of the cornerstones of any net zero economy, thanks to their energy density, their ability to piggyback infrastructure designed to transport liquid fossil fuels, and the mounting evidence that next generation fuels can address concerns over their land use footprint and lifecycle emissions. READ MORE

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Investing Advanced biofuels environmental policy Transportation Fuels Policy energy policy European Union (EU) regulations Big Oil/Oil Majors food vs fuel next generation biofuels Sustainability Agricultural waste/residue woody biomass forest residue/waste recycled plastics plastic corn stover MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) commercialization Carbon Intensity (CI)/Carbon Footprint E10 UK (United Kingdom) Brazil sugarcane gasification Cellulosic ethanol Switchgrass miscanthus used cooking oil (UCO) tallow animal fat Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen electrofuels (e-fuels) Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Jetfuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)) power-to-x/gas/liquid carbon capture and utilization (CCU) BioRefineries/Renewable Fuel Production

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