Cars Threaten Climate Goals in Blue States

by Benjamin Storrow (E&E News) ... Transportation emissions threaten to undercut blue states' climate goals, raising questions about their ability to lead U.S. climate efforts at a time when the federal government is rolling back environmental regulations.

Emissions from cars, trucks and other mobile sources are on the rise nationally. In 2016, they overtook power plants as America's largest source of greenhouse gases. But the situation is exacerbated in blue states, where power-sector emissions have plummeted and planet-warming tailpipe pollution remains stubbornly high.

The transportation sector emits at least twice as much carbon as power plants in states like California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Washington. And with President Trump poised to try to roll back emission standards for cars and trucks, the stakes for state action on transportation have never been higher.

Yet plans to tackle automobile emissions remain in their infancy outside California, which has implemented an economywide cap-and-trade program and a host of policies aimed at curbing carbon from cars and trucks.

"The policy innovation at the state level has largely been focused on power and not on comprehensive solutions," said John Larsen, an analyst at the Rhodium Group. "Tackling emissions outside the power sector is required if states are going to continue to lead."

The dynamic illustrates one of the wider challenges in American climate policy, analysts said. If greening the electric sector was "Climate Policy 1.0," cleaning up the transportation sector is "Climate Policy 2.0." And where climate conscious states have made significant progress on the first score, they have barely moved the needle on the second.

Yet environmentalists argued that none of the New England states has put forward a comprehensive plan for tackling transportation emissions, the largest source of greenhouse gases in all six states. Without a plan, the region is unlikely to meet its midcentury goal, when emissions in each state are supposed to fall by at least 75 percent of 1990 levels.

Twenty-three states offer some form of rebates, tax credits or other financial incentives aimed at enticing consumers to buy electric vehicles, according to a 2017 tally taken by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Nine others have adopted California's zero-emission vehicle standard, which establishes a sales quota for EVs and hybrid plug-ins.

"If you really want to get the reduction people are talking about, 80 percent by 2050, it's going to take some sort of price on carbon to get there," Thornton (David Thornton, assistant commissioner at the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency) said. "In most parts of the country, people are not quite ready for that. So we do what we can until that happens."

Indeed, blue states have shown little appetite for implementing an economywide price on carbon, widely viewed by economists and policymakers as the most effective way to tackle carbon emissions.

Washington state climate hawks have tried repeatedly to pass a carbon tax, only to see their efforts defeated at the ballot box and in the state Legislature (Climatewire, March 2). Still, Washington remains something of a leader on the subject. Gov. Jay Inslee's (D) proposed carbon tax passed out of two Senate committees. Similar efforts in other states have failed to get that far (Climatewire, Feb. 20).

The (California) plan includes boosting the purchase of zero-emission buses, getting 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025 and strengthening the state's low carbon fuel standard by requiring oil companies to reduce the carbon intensity of their fuel 18 percent by 2030.

One big question is Trump and whether he will attempt a rollback of the state's ability to set vehicle emission standards. California officials have pledged to fight any such effort, but they acknowledge a loss would represent a serious setback to the state's climate goals. READ MORE

Excerpts from Politico's Morning Energy: Senate EPW ranking member Tom Carper said he reached a deal with EPA air chief Bill Wehrum on a fuel economy standards compromise, but Pruitt scuttled it. Carper said the deal would have provided "certainty and predictability to the auto industry" while maintaining California's ability to set standards stricter emissions standards. But he said Pruitt backed out even though environmentalists were "satisfied." Carper said the deal collapsed around the time McConnell filed cloture on Andrew Wheeler's nomination to be deputy EPA administrator.

In response to the allegation, EPA spokeswoman Liz Bowman said: "These statements are in reference to an ongoing discussion and work on EPA's Final Determination of the [Midterm Evaluation]; Sen. Carper has not been a part of these negotiations. EPA continues to engage with all states - including California - Members of Congress and the auto industry." Pruitt announced his plans to weaken the Obama-era's fuel efficiency requirements earlier this month. READ MORE