(U.S. Department of Energy) On July 29, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, evaluating existing peer-reviewed literature and government data on climate impacts of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and providing a critical assessment of the conventional narrative on climate change.
Among the key findings, the report concludes that carbon dioxide (CO2) -induced warming appears to be less damaging economically than commonly believed, and that aggressive mitigation strategies could be more harmful than beneficial. Additionally, the report finds that U.S. policy actions are expected to have undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate and any effects will emerge only with long delays.
The report was developed by the 2025 Climate Working Group, a group of five independent scientists assembled by Energy Secretary Chris Wright with diverse expertise in physical science, economics, climate science and academic research.
Summary
This report:
- Reviews scientific certainties and uncertainties in how anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other GHGs have affected, or will affect, the Nation’s climate, extreme weather events, and metrics of societal well-being.
- Assesses the near-term impacts of elevated concentrations of CO2, including enhanced plant growth and reduced ocean alkalinity.
- Evaluates data and projections regarding long-term impacts of elevated concentrations of CO2, including estimates of future warming.
- Finds that claims of increased frequency or intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and droughts are not supported by U.S. historical data.
- Asserts that CO2-induced warming appears to be less damaging economically than commonly believed, and that aggressive mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial.
- Finds that U.S. policy actions are expected to have undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate and any effects will emerge only with long delays.
Read the Full Report
Public Comment
DOE is inviting feedback on this report by opening a public comment period. A notice of availability and invitation for public comment will be published in the Federal Register. READ MORE
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Excerpt from E&E News by Politico: “This is a general theme in the report; they cherrypick data points that suit their narrative and exclude the vast majority of the scientific literature that does not,” Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the science nonprofit Berkeley Earth, said in an email.
The proposed rule cites — and misrepresents — some of his research, Hausfather said, adding, “This gives a terribly skewed view of the underlying climate science, and highlights a number of fringe studies that have been subsequently shown to be riddled with errors.”
Climate science has long been based on data and facts, as well as extensive peer-reviewed research. Thousands of studies conducted throughout the globe over decades have unequivocally shown that humanity’s reliance on fossil fuels is pushing the planet toward dangerous climate tipping points, such as significant sea-level rise, more deadly heat waves and increased extreme weather.
On Tuesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright characterized that scientific record as flawed.
“What we really want to do is bring climate science into the same realm we treated all science in the past, which is critical thinking, challenging, basing things on data and facts,” Wright said at a press conference at an Indiana trucking company. “And if your model doesn’t match the data, you can’t hide the data, you’ve got to fix your model. We want to end the cancel culture.”
The proposed rule suggests that scientists’ projections of global warming are flawed, that scientists have overstated the dangers of climate change and that rising temperatures even pose a net benefit to humankind. It’s all part of the Trump administration’s efforts to overturn the endangerment finding, which determined that greenhouse gas emissions drive warming and endanger public health and welfare.
Here is a fact check of some claims made in the EPA proposal.
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are “not the exclusive source” of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and rising global temperatures.
The links between climate change and human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have been established beyond any mainstream scientific doubt. That’s thanks to a combination of real-world observations and sophisticated climate models.
Scientists have been collecting detailed temperature records at weather stations around the world for over a century. These observations indicate that the planet has been warming since the 19th century. By the 1980s, the warming trend had clearly statistically diverged from the previous global temperature average — in other words, the rising temperatures weren’t just a blip, but an obvious shift into a new climate regime.
Climate models have allowed scientists to attribute this warming trend directly to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. With these computerized simulations, researchers can test the influence of different factors on the Earth’s climate system — from natural variables like solar radiation and volcanic eruptions to manmade ones like fossil fuel emissions.
The models clearly demonstrate that natural variables can’t explain the recent increase in Earth’s temperatures, while greenhouse gas emissions closely track the warming trends. Studies have agreed on this point for decades.
“Recent data and analyses suggest, however, that despite increased public attention and concern, such extreme weather events have not demonstrably increased relative to historical highs.”
Numerous studies have demonstrated that weather extremes are becoming more frequent or more intense over time — including heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes and floods.
At the same time, climate models have become so sophisticated that they can demonstrate links between greenhouse gas emissions and individual weather events.
The most recent version of the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment — which the Trump administration removed from the internet — found that “communities across the country are built for a climate that no longer exists” because of weather extremes. The observed climate effects happening now include “drought in the Western U.S. and heavier precipitation and increased flood risk across much of the U.S.,” according to the federal assessment, which draws upon the peer-reviewed research of hundreds of scientists.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization has concluded that weather and climate disasters caused $4.3 trillion in global economic losses over the last 50 years and killed at least two million people.
“The Endangerment Finding consistently cites climate models as showing or predicting warming trends, melting ice, anthropogenic droughts, shrinking snowpack, damage to aquatic systems of life, and increased ocean temperature and acidity. However, the data relied upon as inputs to these models may be based on inaccurate assumptions.”
Those who deny climate science have frequently attacked the performance of climate models, suggesting that they overestimate global warming and other climate impacts. But research shows that climate models have been highly accurate for decades.
A groundbreaking 2019 study examined all the global climate models used by scientists between 1970 and 2007, including the models used to support the first three reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It found that most of them closely predicted the actual warming rates observed on Earth. That includes long-obsolete models built decades ago; today’s simulations are far more advanced and just as accurate.
The fossil fuel industry’s own computer models have also accurately predicted global warming. A study published in 2023 revealed that Exxon Mobil’s state-of-the-art climate models have correctly predicted global warming since at least the late 1970s.
“Our findings demonstrate that ExxonMobil didn’t just know ‘something’ about global warming decades ago — they knew as much as academic and government scientists knew,” the study’s authors concluded.
Critics of climate models have also often suggested that the underlying data used to feed the simulations — including on-the-ground measurements of Earth’s temperatures — are untrustworthy. Some have pointed out that urban areas are hotter than their natural surroundings — a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect — and that this phenomenon can skew the measurements collected by weather stations around the world.
But that’s not actually a problem. Scientists adjust their datasets to account for factors like the urban heat island effect. And weather stations around the world — on land and sea and in cities and wilderness — all demonstrate that global average temperatures are rising.
At the same time, on-the-ground weather stations aren’t the only ways scientists monitor global warming. Satellites have been observing the planet’s temperatures for decades, and instruments operated by countries around the world — from the U.S. to Europe to Japan — all agree that the Earth is heating up.
“Recent data and analysis show that even marginal increases in CO2 concentrations have substantial beneficial impacts on plant growth and agricultural productivity.”
This well-worn claim — asserting that increased carbon dioxide is “greening” the planet and causing crop yields to spike — is misleading, experts say.
“The statement that higher CO2 is good for plants is sort of facile and self-serving and doesn’t reflect the depth of the research done on this,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University.
It’s a selective fact that ignores or downplays the major role played by decades of agricultural innovation, including vast improvements in long-term weather predictions, high-yield crop varieties, hybrid seed developments, mechanization, irrigation methods and infrastructure, as well as herbicides and pesticides.
It also ignores numerous studies which suggest that rising temperatures, intensifying drought and increasing extreme weather events — all driven by climate change — are expected to damage crop yields in many regions of the world over the coming decades.
A study published just last month in the scientific journal Nature found that climate change is likely to drive down global food production by as much as 120 calories per person per day with every degree Celsius the world warms — even if farmers take steps to adapt.
The claim that climate change benefits agriculture overall “presumes that all you’re doing is changing carbon dioxide,” Dessler said. “Other things also change. Temperature goes up, soil moisture goes down, precipitation patterns change.”
“Contrary to the Endangerment Finding’s assumptions, data continue to suggest that mortality risk from cold temperatures remains by far the greater threat to public health in the United States,” the proposed rule reads. “Although the risk of heat waves featured prominently in the Endangerment Finding … the data since 2009 suggest that the balance of climate change as a whole appears to skew substantially more than previously recognized by the EPA in the direction of net benefits.”
This is a carefully selected data point, which is frequently invoked by climate policy opponents such as Wright. But it ignores an important counterpoint. While it’s true that the warming of the planet is cutting down on the number of cold-related deaths — largely in sub-Saharan Africa — it is rapidly increasing the number of extreme-heat related deaths.
In the U.S., extreme heat kills more Americans than any other natural disaster. In fact, most official estimates probably underestimate the number of people who die each year as a result of high temperatures.
Another degree or two of warming means the places where people in the U.S. die from temperature extremes will also shift and increase, Dessler said. The balance of science since 2009 certainly does not show more “net benefits,” he said.
Places like Phoenix — which has set repeated high temperature records in recent years — may not see a major spike in deaths because the built environment includes air conditioning and other protections, he said. But he added that places like Chicago, which is built for months of extreme cold, will see many more deaths from an increase in extreme heat waves since the city is unprepared for that climate.
The world is actually on track for less warming than the IPCC’s worst-case scenarios — and these studies have led the public to believe that climate change is more harmful than it actually is.
It’s true that many climate studies have explored a worst-case scenario that assumes world leaders will take no steps at all to address climate change in the coming decade. Such scenarios predict as much as 5 degrees Celsius, or 9 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming by the end of the century. It’s also true that this “business as usual” scenario is unlikely to actually occur.
But many more studies have focused on the consequences of small amounts of warming, like exceeding the Paris Agreement’s targets of 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.
Hausfather, the Berkeley Earth climate scientist, has himself critiqued worst-case climate scenarios in a paper the Trump administration cited in its move to revoke the endangerment finding. But he has also published studies demonstrating the overall accuracy of climate models and the dangers of rising temperatures — research he notes the Trump administration “somehow neglected to mention.”
Numerous studies have shown that the impacts of climate change are already happening and affecting human health and well-being at warming far less than forecast in worst-case scenarios.
Sea levels are already rising. Extreme weather events are already worsening. Climate-related disasters like hurricanes, wildfires and floods already cost the U.S. billions of dollars each year, and they’re growing more intense over time.
Dessler emphasized that skepticism is normal in science, with researchers often debating and arguing the merits of plenty of findings. But the recently hired DOE researchers behind the proposed rule’s climate claims make general proclamations that certain bodies of research are not “believable,” he said.
“There’s a lot of stuff that happens in science that relies on the good faith of the people arguing,” he said. “And it breaks down in the face of these people that are professional contrarians.” READ MORE
Excerpt from Science Magazine: The last assessment of the state of climate science from the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in its final form 2 years ago, was a monumental effort, with 721 volunteer scientists synthesizing all available published research. Yesterday, the Department of Energy (DOE) released its own climate assessment, as part of a campaign by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to overturn its landmark endangerment finding from 2009, which found that burning fossil fuels endangers public health and established carbon dioxide as a pollutant EPA could regulate. But the DOE report—called A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate—had fewer authors than IPCC’s: just five.
Handpicked by DOE Secretary Chris Wright, a fossil fuel entrepreneur, the authors are well known to climate scientists. Although the members of this Climate Working Group all hold scientific doctorates, they hold contrarian views on climate science that are out of step with the mainstream. The report, assembled in months, argues that some of the warming attributed to fossil fuel burning is instead driven by natural cycles or variability in the Sun, and that sea level rise has not been accelerating. Climate researchers say the authors cherry-picked evidence and highlighted uncertainties to achieve the net effect of downplaying the impacts of climate change. “This shows how far we have sunk,” says Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science at Harvard University. “Climate denial is now the official policy of the U.S. government.”
The report is far from comprehensive. Many of its arguments are common among critics of climate action, previously made online and in obscure journals. It amounts to a “law brief from attorneys defending their client, carbon dioxide,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, on Bluesky. “Their goal is not to weigh the evidence fairly but to build the strongest possible case for [carbon dioxide’s] innocence. This is a fundamental departure from the norms of science.”
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Already multiple scientists have said their work has been mischaracterized. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Stripe, noted in a Bluesky post that the report cited his influential study in 2020 showing the most extreme climate scenario sometimes used by modelers, based on emissions rising for many decades to come, no longer represents reality because emissions are close to plateauing. But the report said that finding undermined EPA’s projections of warming. “Their point is completely backwards,” Hausfather wrote, noting that Earth would still warm with lower emission scenarios. “My paper actually supports the EPA’s 2009 range of 1.8C to 4C warming by 2100.” And Richard Tol, a climate economist at the University of Sussex, wrote a blog post today noting the report mischaracterized his studies to suggest climate change could benefit poor countries, when the preponderance of evidence finds the opposite.
The report makes some points that mainstream climate scientists would acknowledge. It decries media hype and points out that global warming is not the only challenge facing humanity. It argues that rising carbon dioxide levels can benefit some plants—a known “carbon fertilization” effect. It says the extreme emissions scenario should not be used to forecast climate impacts, a course correction the field has rapidly made. It points out that the latest generation of climate models run too hot, and they should be used with care—something climate scientists have also done. And it says that because the models run hot, the future rate of warming should be estimated instead using constraints from observed warming levels and past climates, among other factors—a step IPCC already took in its last report.
The report also highlights real research questions. It brings up the fact that more sunlight has been reaching the ground over the past 2 decades than before, accelerating warming. And it notes that, although declining air pollution is certainly part of the reason for this trend, diminishing cloud cover is as well—and, as Science covered late last year, the pressing question is now whether these changes are a feedback from warming. The report also attacks so-called extreme event attribution—efforts to quantify the contribution of global warming to extreme weather—as unreliable. Although the critiques may not be identical, mainstream climate scientists have also pushed for more rigor in attribution studies. READ MORE
Excerpt from E&E News Climatewire: In a prologue to the report, Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote that he intentionally assembled a “diverse team of independent experts” who were chosen for “their rigor, honesty, and willingness to elevate the debate.” That team did not include any of the hundreds of government climate scientists from NOAA or NASA, two of the world’s leading science agencies.
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The Trump administration has also ended work on the National Climate Assessment, a congressionally mandated, yearslong report produced by hundreds of scientists, and removed earlier versions of the report from government websites.
The assessment, which the DOE team repeatedly contradicts, involves scores of scientists, public comment and peer review from the National Academy of Sciences, said Phil Duffy, a physicist who studies climate change and served at the Office of Science and Technology Policy during the Biden administration.
“If the administration wanted to have a good review of climate science and the impact of climate change on the United States, then they shouldn’t have pulled the plug on that assessment,” Duffy said.
‘Red team’ ideas
Wright’s team began work in early April and finished before the end of May, with the explicit mission of producing a report that would “challenge the mainstream consensus.”
It is just the beginning of a more expansive process that will solicit public feedback, respond to that feedback and then produce a longer report that stands to serve as the final record, according to report co-author Curry, who wrote about it on her blog. The ultimate goal, she wrote, is “breaking the link between energy policy and human-caused climate change, whereby anthropogenic climate change currently ‘mandates’ emissions targets, preferred energy production methods, etc.”
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“Attribution of climate change or extreme weather events to human CO2 emissions is challenged by natural climate variability, data limitations, and inherent model deficiencies,” the group concluded. “Moreover, solar activity’s contribution to the late 20th century warming might be underestimated.”
Such factors have been considered, studied, measured and addressed for more than two decades, and they don’t disprove clear evidence linking a warming planet to more extreme weather events. READ MORE
Excerpt from U.S. Department of Energy/Federal Register: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE or the Department) seeks public comment on the draft report produced by DOE's Climate Working Group (CWG), titled “A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate” (CWG Report). DOE is seeking input from the public, especially from interested individuals and entities, such as industry, academia, research laboratories, government agencies, and other stakeholders. Information received may be used to assist DOE in planning the scope of future research efforts and may be shared with other Federal agencies.
DATES:
Written comments and information are requested on or before September 2, 2025 and must be received no later than 11:59 p.m. eastern time (ET) on that date. Written submissions received after the deadline may not be considered. DOE will not reply individually to responders but will consider all comments submitted by the deadline. DOE also intends to summarize all comments received by topic. READ MORE
Excerpt from National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine: A new National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine study will review the latest scientific evidence on whether greenhouse gas emissions are reasonably anticipated to endanger public health and welfare in the U.S.
The committee conducting the study will focus on evidence gathered by the scientific community since 2009 — when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency first declared greenhouse gas emissions a danger to public health. Any conclusions in the committee’s report will describe supporting evidence, the level of confidence in a conclusion, and areas of disagreement or unknowns.
The EPA recently announced that it intends to rescind its “endangerment finding,” a statement issued by the agency in 2009 that found that greenhouse gas emissions do pose risks to public health and welfare. The National Academies study will be completed and publicly released in September, in time to inform EPA’s decision process.
“It is critical that federal policymaking is informed by the best available scientific evidence,” said Marcia McNutt, president of the National Academy of Sciences. “Decades of climate research and data have yielded expanded understanding of how greenhouse gases affect the climate. We are undertaking this fresh examination of the latest climate science in order to provide the most up-to-date assessment to policymakers and the public.”
The committee will be led by Shirley Tilghman, professor of molecular biology and public affairs, emeritus, and former president, Princeton University. The committee will also include experts in public health, extreme weather, climate modeling, agriculture, infrastructure, and other areas.
The committee has issued a request for information to the public and scientific community. The study is being self-funded by the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, engineering, and medicine. They operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln. READ MORE
Excerpt from Reuters: Two major environmental groups announced on Tuesday they have sued the Trump administration for secretly convening a group of climate skeptics, which prepared a report that served as the basis for a reversal of U.S. rules on greenhouse gas emissions without public notice.
The Environmental Defense Fund and the Union of Concerned Scientists filed the lawsuit in a federal district court in Massachusetts, arguing that the so-called Climate Working Group that Energy Secretary Chris Wright put together, evaded public view, delivered erroneous results and was illegally used to inform the Environmental Protection Agency's decision to reverse the scientific finding that served as the foundation for federal climate regulation.
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The preparation and use of the report has raised concern that the United States is rejecting the mainstream consensus about the causes and impacts of climate change at a time that more severe storms and record-breaking temperatures cause trillions of dollars in damage around the country. Downplaying the impacts of climate change and eliminating U.S. climate data collection and reports also takes away the urgency for the U.S. to shift away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy.
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Through the Federal Advisory Committee Act, Congress requires public disclosure and public records in the establishment and operation of any federal advisory committee. READ MORE
Excerpt from E&E News Climatewire:
One author of a recent Department of Energy report that assailed established climate science said the 141-page document is only the beginning — and that the Trump administration plans to do more to undercut research that shows humanity’s use of fossil fuels is warming the planet and endangering its inhabitants.
Steve Koonin, one of the report’s five main contributors, told POLITICO’s E&E News last week that the document likely is a precursor to a sustained assault on mainstream global warming research. Under discussion are plans to hold a public debate about climate science, write a line-by-line rebuttal of the National Climate Assessment and ready a counterattack against climate scientists critical of last month’s Energy Department report.
A key next step, Koonin said, is to expand the Trump administration’s team of climate contrarians beyond the five scientists who wrote the initial report. The document already has attracted hundreds of responses through the Federal Register, and Koonin said they need the reinforcements to push back against the criticism.
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“It can’t be five against the world,” said Koonin, a former chief scientist for BP. “We will have to enlist other scientists.”
But that may be easier said than done — as there is only a small pool of credentialed researchers who back the claims of the DOE report.
The document, for example, questions the link between climate change and humanity’s output of carbon dioxide. And it suggests that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed.”
The claims run counter to the findings of tens of thousands of scientists from around the world who have spent decades studying climate change. The overwhelming consensus from these researchers is that the modern world’s burning of oil, gas and coal is pumping planet-warming gases such as carbon dioxide into atmosphere, creating a greenhouse effect. And with a hotter planet comes a cascade of consequences, from rising sea levels to more intense hurricanes and wildfires.
Numerous researchers cited in the DOE report said their work had been cherry-picked and presented in a misleading way — and that it recycled arguments that had long been debunked.
“If you are a sophisticated academic — which I would put all of them in that category — you know how to basically torture the data long enough so it’ll tell you what you want to hear,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who is leading an academic response to the DOE report.
But Koonin, a senior fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution, said that kind of pushback was expected — and in fact plays into a long-running plan to conduct a “red team vs. blue team” exercise for climate science.
The term is a nod to a type of military planning that uses adversarial reviews to identify potential weaknesses. The report is, in effect, the red team’s opening move and Koonin said the criticism will start to make up a blue-team response.
“What we do is a more accurate depiction of climate science for the general public,” he said.
Koonin was preparing a similar effort during the first Trump administration, but it was blocked by White House aides preparing for the 2020 election. At that time, Trump had personally considered a televised prime-time climate debate.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who recruited Koonin and the other four researchers to write the DOE report, told CNN last week that he wants to “update” the National Climate Assessment but did not provide any details. He also endorsed the idea of climate debates.
“We’ll probably have public events here in D.C. this fall,” Wright said. “We want to have an honest dialogue with the American people about climate change.”
Koonin said he expects to carefully scrutinize and challenge every paragraph of the National Climate Assessment, a long-running report mandated by Congress that identifies the threats that global warming poses to the United States.
Judith Curry, one of the other five authors of the DOE report, said she wants a debate — but also wants the chance to recast the National Climate Assessment and other government science reports by emphasizing uncertainty. She envisions a release of a new report infused with disagreements and disputes.
“A public debate is one approach, but I would like to see a broadening of the tent for the ‘official’ assessments to include disagreement, debate, uncertainty,” she wrote in an email.
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2014: Red team, blue team
If there is a climate debate, Koonin said he wants to structure it much like a 2014 event at New York University that pitted a team of climate scientists against some of the DOE report authors, including Curry and Christy.
It was a daylong effort organized by Koonin, in which the two teams presented their case to a panel of distinguished physicists from the American Physical Society. For the upcoming debate he now envisions, Koonin said both sides would exchange research notes and talking points ahead of time.
“Healthy debate, challenge response is just the way you do science, and that has been sorely absent from this business for far too long,” Koonin said. “If you can show that it’s wrong, we’ll change it.”
Exaggerating uncertainty in science while downplaying broad-based findings long has been a strategy of conservative groups and lawmakers opposed to fossil fuel regulations, scientists say. The current Trump administration has made it a priority to slash climate regulations and boost U.S. production of fossil fuels.
Ben Santer, a climate scientist who worked at DOE for 30 years before retiring in 2021, participated in Koonin’s 2014 debate at New York University — and he remembers it differently.
He said the red team failed to make a compelling case to the panel of physicists, who ultimately rejected their argument and did not issue a statement that questioned climate science findings. The red team has refused to acknowledge any weakness to their arguments, which have long been rejected by the vast majority of climate scientists, he said.
After the debate, Koonin resigned from the effort he organized and soon after dismissed the field of climate science in the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page for being “not yet mature enough to usefully answer the difficult and important questions being asked of it,” Santer noted.
In response, Koonin acknowledged that he resigned but disputed the notion that the red team “lost” and said a transcript of the event shows a strong response by the red team.
Santer also pointed out that debate — and the weighing of disparate hypotheses — long has been an essential part of science. He said the scientific community for years has accounted for the arguments of Koonin’s team.
“The notion that they have not been part of the community and have not had the opportunity to convince others of the correctness of their arguments is just plain wrong,” Santer said. “The bottom line is, they haven’t succeeded in defending the arguments that they now present in the DOE report.”
The report is not a genuine effort to gain a new understanding, he said, but rather “provide political cover for rescinding the endangerment finding.”
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Santer said the claims by Koonin and Energy Secretary Wright that the small group of fringe researchers had been silenced by the larger scientific community were not true.
Their arguments have been explored and debunked already, he said, by years of good science.
“These are questions,” he said, “that we’ve been adjudicating for decades in thousands of peer-reviewed publications.” READ MORE
by Jake Spring and Anusha Mathur (Washington Post) The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday announced a proposal to rescind the landmark legal opinion that underpins virtually all of its regulations to curb climate change.
The move would end EPA regulations on greenhouse gases emitted by cars, while also undercutting rules that limit power plant emissions and control the release of methane by oil and gas companies.
“If finalized, today’s announcement would amount to the largest deregulatory action in the history of the United States, ” EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said Tuesday at a truck dealership in Indianapolis.
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Zeldin said that he aims to balance economic growth with environmental protection and that the EPA remains committed to preserving clean air and water.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group which represents almost all U.S. domestic and foreign automakers, is studying the proposal but broadly supports changing the policy, President John Bozzella said in a statement.
“There’s no question the vehicle emissions regulations finalized under the previous administration aren’t achievable and should be revised to reflect current market conditions, to keep the auto industry in America competitive, and to keep the industry on a path of vehicle choice and lower emissions,” Bozzella said.
The endangerment finding has long been a target of libertarians and many conservatives seeking to cut back regulations they see as burdensome.
“This is a very expensive regulation,” said Diana Furchtgott‑Roth, director of the Center for Energy, Climate and the Environment at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.
“The endangerment finding should be rolled back, because right now it is responsible for regulations that raise the cost of energy and raise the cost of transportation, and disproportionately burden the poor, burden farmers, and burden small businesses,” she added.
Myron Ebell, chairman of the American Lands Council, a conservative advocacy group, said that the repeal is key to cementing Trump’s energy legacy.
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The endangerment finding has been at the center of the political fight over climate change for more than 15 years. In 2007, the Supreme Court ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA that the agency had the authority to regulate carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases as pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The EPA issued the endangerment finding two years later, and then established carbon limits for vehicles and power plants.
Experts say that going after the endangerment finding is a risky legal move. But if the administration is successful, it would eliminate the key hurdle to implementing Trump’s energy agenda.
“They think this is a holy grail to get rid of the whole thing in one fell swoop as opposed to having to weaken regulations one by one,” said Richard Revesz, law professor at New York University and former administrator of the White House Office of Information Regulatory Affairs. “It’s like betting on this big thing, but if you lose, you end up empty-handed.”
Kenny Stein, vice president for policy at the conservative Institute for Energy Research, said that the Supreme Court’s ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA made a shaky legal argument and has been undermined by more recent rulings.
A 2022 Supreme Court ruling struck down Obama-era power plant rules, saying that in order for an agency to exercise a broad new authority — such as regulating greenhouse gases — Congress needs to explicitly give it that authority.
“With the massive change in the complexion of the Supreme Court, I think that if the case got to the Supreme Court on this topic, Massachusetts v. EPA would be overruled pretty comprehensively,” Stein said.
The EPA’s proposal now enters a 45-day period for public comments, after which the agency must respond before submitting the final version.
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Environmental groups have vowed to challenge the repeal. David Doniger, senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group, said his group plans to submit comments and take the EPA to court if they are not addressed.
“The law unambiguously includes greenhouse gases as air pollutants, and the law unambiguously makes it clear that the endangerment and contribution findings limit that to public health and science issues, not to broad economic and policy issues,” Doniger said. “When they assert the opposite, they will lose.”
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If the repeal does survive court challenges, it would leave future administrations unable to address climate change using the Clean Air Act.
“You’re asking the American people who are living through wildfires, floods, hurricanes, heat domes and so on, not to believe what they’re going through, not to believe their own eyes,” Doniger said. “At some point what they’re claiming is going to appear to people to be mind bogglingly false, and out of touch.” READ MORE
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- EPA moves to repeal finding that underpins current limits on greenhouse gas pollution from cars, factories, power plants -- The news follows an executive order that directed the agency to submit a report “on the legality and continuing applicability” of the endangerment finding. (NBC News)
- EPA’s Misguided Proposed Repeal of the Endangerment Finding Is Contrary to Law, Sound Science, and Common Sense (Environmental Law and Policy Center)
- Zeldin confirms EPA will repeal the endangerment finding -- The EPA administrator also said incorrectly the Obama administration ignored the benefits of climate change and never took public comment. (Politico Pro)
- Trump admin proposes to revoke EPA’s ability to make rules about climate pollution (CNN)
- Researchers who question mainstream climate science join DOE -- The Department of Energy brings aboard three scientists known for challenging mainstream climate research. (Politico Pro Energywire)
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EPA seeks to limit its power to curb climate pollution-- A passage from the proposal indicates the agency will argue that its statutory authority is too narrow to support regulating greenhouse gases. (E&E News by Politico)
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Trump admin proposes to revoke EPA’s ability to make rules about climate pollution (CNN/KION)
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E.P.A. Plans to Revoke the Legal Basis for Tackling Climate Change -- The agency’s administrator said in a podcast that the move would be “the largest deregulatory action in the history of America.” (New York Times)
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Governor Lamont, Attorney General Tong, Commissioner Dykes, and Commissioner Juthani Respond to the EPA’s Proposed Repeal of the Landmark Endangerment Finding (State of Connecticut)
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EPA Releases Proposal to Rescind Obama-Era Endangerment Finding, Regulations that Paved the Way for Electric Vehicle Mandates (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
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The EPA proposes gutting its greenhouse gas rules. Here's what it means for cars and pollution (NPR)
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Zeldin previews his big climate move. Here’s a fact check. The EPA administrator made several inaccurate comments on a right-wing podcast ahead of rolling back the endangerment finding. (E&E News by Politico)
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Ethanol Front and Center -- The European Union has been a major importer of U.S. ethanol in recent years. (Pro Farmer/AgWeb)
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Trump proposes repeal of landmark finding that greenhouse gases harm the public (The Hill)
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Climate Regulation Liberation Day: The Trump EPA moves to repeal the Obama-Biden ‘endangerment’ finding. (Wall Street Journal Opinion)
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EPA says endangerment reversal is guided by Supreme Court -- Administrator Lee Zeldin pointed to high-profile legal decisions that eroded executive branch power as a sign of support for dismantling the endangerment finding. (Politico Pro Climatewire)
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Repealing greenhouse gas emissions rule could cost American drivers more, not less (USA Today)
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The Pendulum of Public Policy: Sustaining Progress and the Repeal of the CO2 Endangerment Finding (Engine Technology Forum)
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In Game-Changing Climate Rollback, E.P.A. Aims to Kill a Bedrock Scientific Finding (New York Times)
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RFA CEO Responds to EPA Endangerment Finding Proposal (Energy.AgWired.com; includes AUDIO)
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4 laws that could stymie the Trump EPA’s plan to rescind the endangerment finding, central to US climate policies (The Conversation)
Excerpt from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/Federal Register: Comment and Public Hearing Information
To view documents supporting this proposed rulemaking as well as comments submitted, please visit regulations.gov and access the rule under Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194.
Written comments on the proposal may be submitted to the docket for this rule through September 15, 2025. There are several ways to provide written comments on the proposal, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2025-0194: READ MORE
Excerpt from U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Minority News: The bedrock scientific determination underpins EPA’s greenhouse gas regulations. Repealing it while gutting emissions standards for vehicles sets the stage to roll back regulations on power plants, airplanes, and more.
Washington, D.C.—U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW), issued the following statement after Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposed repeal of EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding, a scientific determination that greenhouse gases are harmful to human health and welfare. The endangerment finding underpins all greenhouse gas regulation, and repealing it would ignore overwhelming scientific evidence and set the stage for rolling back regulations on power plants, airplanes, and more—making it easier to pollute. EPA is seizing the opportunity to propose gutting vehicle standards in the same regulatory action.
“The endangerment finding is the bedrock scientific finding underpinning EPA’s greenhouse gas regulations, and the Trump Administration’s repeal has the fossil fuel industry’s oily fingerprints all over it. That greenhouse gases harm public welfare was supported by overwhelming scientific evidence when the endangerment finding was issued in 2009; 16 years later, the evidence has only gotten stronger, and the looming economic harms more dangerous. Administrator Zeldin’s corrupt giveaway doesn’t change the science, but by wishing away the problem, this Administration leaves EPA without the tools to forge a solution.
“The vehicle emissions rollbacks will unleash unchecked greenhouse gas pollution and leave us dangerously unprepared for the deadlier storms, disappearing coastlines, and more intense heat from unmitigated climate change. EPA had a chance to save 40,000 lives and help families save more than $1.7 trillion in fuel costs, but Trump chose his fossil fuel megadonors over the American people. Thanks to EPA’s pay-to-play corruption, Big Oil gets to sell more gas while American families foot the bill.
“While there is no substitute for federal action to limit carbon pollution, I expect that states and cities across the country will try to fill the void created by EPA’s shameful retreat, and the oil and gas industry, facing a patchwork of regulatory regimes, will rue the day it put this awful scheme in motion.” READ MORE
Excerpt from Associated Press/ABC News: President Donald Trump's administration on Tuesday proposed revoking a scientific finding that has long been the central basis for U.S. action to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change.
The proposed Environmental Protection Agency rule rescinds a 2009 declaration that determined that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare.
The “endangerment finding” is the legal underpinning of a host of climate regulations under the Clean Air Act for motor vehicles, power plants and other pollution sources that are heating the planet.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called for a rewrite of the endangerment finding in March as part of a series of environmental rollbacks announced at the same time in what Zeldin said was "the greatest day of deregulation in American history.'' A total of 31 key environmental rules on topics from clean air to clean water and climate change would be rolled back or repealed under Zeldin's plan.
He singled out the endangerment finding as “the Holy Grail of the climate change religion” and said he was thrilled to end it “as the EPA does its part to usher in the Golden Age of American success.''
The EPA also called for rescinding limits on tailpipe emissions that were designed to encourage automakers to build and sell more electric vehicles. The transportation sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.
Three former EPA leaders have criticized Zeldin, saying his March proposal would endanger the lives of millions of Americans and abandon the agency’s dual mission to protect the environment and human health.
“If there’s an endangerment finding to be found anywhere, it should be found on this administration because what they’re doing is so contrary to what the Environmental Protection Agency is about,” Christine Todd Whitman, who led EPA under Republican President George W. Bush, said after Zeldin's plan was made public.
The EPA proposal follows an executive order from Trump that directed the agency to submit a report “on the legality and continuing applicability” of the endangerment finding.
Conservatives and some congressional Republicans hailed the initial plan, calling it a way to undo economically damaging rules to regulate greenhouse gases.
But environmental groups, legal experts and Democrats said any attempt to repeal or roll back the endangerment finding would be an uphill task with slim chance of success. The finding came two years after a 2007 Supreme Court ruling holding that the EPA has authority to regulate greenhouse gases as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act.
David Doniger, a climate expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group, said it was virtually “impossible to think that the EPA could develop a contradictory finding (to the 2009 standard) that would stand up in court.”
Doniger and other critics accused Trump's Republican administration of using potential repeal of the endangerment finding as a “kill shot’’ that would allow him to make all climate regulations invalid. If finalized, repeal of the endangerment finding would erase current limits on greenhouse gas pollution from cars, factories, power plants and other sources and could prevent future administrations from proposing rules to tackle climate change.
"The Endangerment Finding is the legal foundation that underpins vital protections for millions of people from the severe threats of climate change, and the Clean Car and Truck Standards are among the most important and effective protections to address the largest U.S. source of climate-causing pollution,'' said Peter Zalzal, associate vice president of the Environmental Defense Fund.
“Attacking these safeguards is manifestly inconsistent with EPA’s responsibility to protect Americans’ health and well-being,'' he said. “It is callous, dangerous and a breach of our government’s responsibility to protect the American people from this devastating pollution." READ MORE
Excerpt from CNN: Zeldin on Tuesday spoke proudly of his agency’s move to repeal the endangerment finding as the “largest deregulatory action in the history of America,” speaking on “Ruthless,” a conservative podcast, and referred to climate change as dogma rather than science.
“This has been referred to as basically driving a dagger into the heart of the climate change religion,” Zeldin said.
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Zeldin said during the podcast he believes the scientific finding that climate change threatens human health was a guise used to attack polluting industries, and that the human health finding was “an oversimplified, I would say inaccurate, way to describe it.”
Many rigorous scientific findings since 2009 have showed both climate pollution and its warming effects are not just harming public health but killing people outright.
The Trump administration has also commissioned a new report on climate change and climate science in conjunction with its proposed regulatory repeals, Energy Sec. Chris Wright announced during a Tuesday afternoon press conference.
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As CNN earlier reported, Wright’s Energy Department recently hired three prominent researchers who have questioned and even rejected the overwhelming scientific consensus on human-caused climate change — John Christy and Roy Spencer, both research scientists at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, and Steven E. Koonin of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
The report was not immediately available, and Energy Department spokespeople didn’t reply to CNN’s request for comment whether Christy, Spencer and Koonin were involved in it.
Wright said climate change “is a real, physical phenomenon” that is “worthy of study” and “even some action.”
“But what we have done instead is nothing related to the actual science of climate change or pragmatic ways to make progress,” Wright said. “The politics of climate change have shrunk your life possibilities, have put your business here at threat.”
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The findings of international climate scientists have been reaffirmed in the fourth and fifth US climate assessments, the former of which was released during the first Trump administration.
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“Both the scientific certainty around climate change and evidence of the dangers it is causing have grown stronger since 2009,” Hausfather (climate scientist Zeke Hausfather) told CNN in an email. “There is no evidence that has emerged or been published in the scientific literature in the past 16 years that would in any way challenge the scientific basis of the 2009 endangerment finding.”
Global warming is supercharging extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and wildfires. It is making these extremes more likely, intense and in some cases, longer-lasting. READ MORE
Excerpt from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: If finalized, this proposal would undo the underpinning of $1 trillion in costly regulations, save more than $54 billion annually -- At an auto dealership in Indiana, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin released the agency’s proposal to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which has been used to justify over $1 trillion in regulations, including the Biden-Harris Administration’s electric vehicle (EV) mandate. If finalized, the proposal would repeal all resulting greenhouse gas emissions regulations for motor vehicles and engines, thereby reinstating consumer choice and giving Americans the ability to purchase a safe and affordable car for their family while decreasing the cost of living on all products that trucks deliver. Administrator Zeldin was joined by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Indiana Governor Mike Braun, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative Jim Baird (R-IN-04), Indiana Secretary of Energy and Natural Resources Suzanne Jaworowski, and the Indiana Motor Truck Association.
Since the 2009 Endangerment Finding was issued, many have stated that the American people and auto manufacturing have suffered from significant uncertainties and massive costs related to general regulations of greenhouse gases from vehicles and trucks. Finally, EPA is proposing to provide much needed certainty and regulatory relief, so companies can plan appropriately, and the American people can have affordable choices when deciding to buy a car.
“With this proposal, the Trump EPA is proposing to end sixteen years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers,” said EPA Administrator Zeldin. “In our work so far, many stakeholders have told me that the Obama and Biden EPAs twisted the law, ignored precedent, and warped science to achieve their preferred ends and stick American families with hundreds of billions of dollars in hidden taxes every single year. We heard loud and clear the concern that EPA's GHG emissions standards themselves, not carbon dioxide which the Finding never assessed independently, was the real threat to Americans’ livelihoods. If finalized, rescinding the Endangerment Finding and resulting regulations would end $1 trillion or more in hidden taxes on American businesses and families.”
“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, America is returning to free and open dialogue around climate and energy policy - driving the focus back to following the data,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “Today’s announcement is a monumental step toward returning to commonsense policies that expand access to affordable, reliable, secure energy and improve quality of life for all Americans.”
“The Obama-Biden EPA used regulations as a political tool and hurt American competitiveness without results to show for it. Today's announcement is a win for consumer choice, common sense, and American energy independence. President Trump, Secretary Wright, and Administrator Zeldin are returning the EPA to its proper role, and I'm proud they chose Indiana as the place to make this announcement because our state is proof we can protect our environment and support American jobs,” said Governor Mike Braun.
“Over the last four years, conservative state attorneys general were the last line of defense in fighting back against the Biden administration’s federal overreach and green new scam agenda,” said Attorney General Todd Rokita. “However, thanks to President Trump and patriots like Administrator Zeldin and Secretary Wright, we are now on the front lines helping to unleash American energy.”
“We commend President Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin for taking decisive action to rescind the disastrous GHG Phase 3 rule. This electric-truck mandate put the trucking industry on a path to economic ruin and would have crippled our supply chain, disrupted deliveries, and raised prices for American families and businesses. Moreover, it kicked innovation to the curb by discarding available technologies that can further drive down emissions at a fraction of the cost. For four decades, our industry has proven that we are committed to reducing emissions. The trucking industry supports cleaner, more efficient technologies, but we need policies rooted in real-world conditions. We thank the Trump Administration for returning us to a path of common sense, so that we can keep delivering for the American people as we continue to reduce our environmental impact,” said American Trucking Association President and CEO Chris Spear.
The Endangerment Finding is the legal prerequisite used by the Obama and Biden Administrations to regulate emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines. Absent this finding, EPA would lack statutory authority under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) to prescribe standards for greenhouse gas emissions. This proposal, if finalized, is expected to save Americans $54 billion in costs annually through the repeal of all greenhouse gas standards, including the Biden EPA’s electric vehicle mandate, under conservative economic forecasts.
If finalized, this proposal would remove all greenhouse gas standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and heavy-duty engines, starting with EPA’s first greenhouse gas set in 2010 for light-duty vehicles and those set in 2011 for medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles and engines—which includes off-cycle credits like the much hated start-stop feature on most new cars.
EPA’s proposal also cites updated scientific data that challenge the assumptions behind the 2009 Endangerment Finding. Cited data includes the updated studies and information in the Department of Energy’s 2025 Climate Work Group study that is concurrently being released for public comment.
EPA will initiate a public comment period to solicit input. Further information on the public comment process and instructions for participation will be published in the Federal Register and on the EPA website.
How We Got Here
Congress tasked EPA under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act with prescribing emission standards for new motor vehicles and engines when the Administrator determines that emissions of an air pollutant from any class of vehicles causes or contributes to air pollution that endangers public health or welfare. But the Obama Administration ignored Congress’ clear intent, slicing and dicing the language of the statute to make an “endangerment finding” totally separate from any actual rule setting standards for emissions from cars.
In an unprecedented move, the Obama EPA found that carbon dioxide emissions emitted from automobiles – in combination with five other gases, some of which vehicles don’t even emit – contributes some unspecified amount to climate change, which in turn creates some unspecified amount of endangerment to human health and welfare. These mental leaps were admittedly novel, but they were the only way the Obama-Biden Administration could access EPA’s authority to regulate under Section 202(a).
Likewise, the Obama EPA did not consider any aspect of the regulations that would flow from the Endangerment Finding. EPA subsequently relied on the Endangerment Finding to underpin seven vehicle regulations with an aggregate cost of more than $1 trillion. The Endangerment Finding has also played a significant role in EPA’s justification of regulations of other sources beyond cars and trucks, resulting in additional costly burdens on American families and businesses.
Much has changed since the 2009 Endangerment Finding was issued, including new scientific and technological developments that warrant review. Additionally, major Supreme Court decisions in the intervening years, including Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, West Virginia v. EPA, Michigan v. EPA, and Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, have significantly clarified the scope of EPA’s authority under the CAA. The decisions emphasized that major policy determinations must be made by Congress, not by administrative agencies.
Background
On the greatest and most consequential day of deregulation in the history of the United States in March 2025, Administrator Zeldin announced that the agency was kicking off a formal reconsideration of the 2009 Endangerment Finding in collaboration with the Office of Management and Budget and other relevant agencies in addition to reconsidering all of its prior regulations and actions that rely on the Endangerment Finding. Please visit the Endangerment Finding Reconsideration website to learn more.
Administrator Zeldin also announced the agency would reconsider the Model Year 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles regulation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles. Please visit the Termination of the EV Mandate website to learn more.
These were announced in conjunction with a number of historic actions to advance President Trump’s Day One executive orders and Power the Great American Comeback. While accomplishing EPA’s core mission of protecting the environment, the agency is committed to fulfilling President Trump’s promise to unleash American energy, lower costs for Americans, revitalize the American auto industry, restore the rule of law, and give power back to states to make their own decisions. READ MORE
Excerpt from E&E News by Politico: Zeldin took aim Tuesday at both the process and science that the Obama administration used to arrive at its finding nearly 16 years ago that greenhouse gases pose a public danger.
“They didn’t actually study carbon dioxide individually, and they made assumptions on the science that actually turned out not to be true,” Zeldin said on the podcast.
The endangerment finding that was finalized under then-Administrator Lisa Jackson was based on U.S. and global climate assessments through 2007. Those findings are now often considered to be conservative. Subsequent assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — the global climate science body — and by U.S. government agencies have expressed greater levels of certainty about more serious and imminent climate risks.
The Obama-era finding considered all six “well-mixed” greenhouse gases together, in evaluating the risk they collectively pose to the public. That’s the same approach EPA has used to evaluate dangers from other classes of pollutants, like particulate pollution and volatile organic compounds that contribute to ozone depletion. Still, Tuesday’s proposal is expected to argue that EPA erred in not considering the six gases individually.
Zeldin also argued that the Obama administration didn’t follow the proper administrative process in finalizing the 2009 declaration.
“They didn’t go out for public comment, and they didn’t weigh the economic impacts of the regulations that would follow if they did the endangerment,” he said on the podcast.
The Obama administration did follow the Administrative Procedure Act, which establishes the process for government decisionmaking, when it wrote the finding. It issued a proposal in April 2009, followed by a 60-day public comment period. The responses to the comments that EPA received during that period remain on its website.
The endangerment finding is not a regulation, though it cleared the path for regulations. Historically, EPA has not weighed policy ramifications when determining that a new pollutant or set of pollutants endanger public health and welfare — the legal predicate for Clean Air Act regulations. But the questions about whether EPA should have weighed the costs and benefits of rules that followed from the 2009 finding are likely to pervade the agency’s new proposal.
On the podcast, Zeldin faulted the Obama-era EPA for not considering benefits from carbon dioxide emissions alongside costs. And he pledged that his EPA would “consider all the advancements in technology over the course of the last 20 years” and U.S. progress in reducing emissions over the last two decades.
EPA in 2009 did consider the benefits of heat-trapping emissions. The finding acknowledged short-term benefits to “certain crops” and to forestry from warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons.
But it added that there “is significant uncertainty about whether this benefit will be achieved given the various potential adverse impacts of climate change on crop yield, such as the increasing risk of extreme weather events.”
Forestry benefits, it said, are “offset by the clear risk from the observed increases in wildfires, combined with risks from the spread of destructive pests and disease.”
The long-term effects of climate change on both sectors, the finding found, would be overwhelmingly negative.
Zeldin hinted Tuesday that the finding would make the case that the U.S. economy is decarbonizing on its own, downplaying the need for regulations. The Trump EPA did not release its most recent data for U.S. emissions this spring, and it has suspended a long-standing program that required major emitters to report their greenhouse gas output.
But the Environmental Defense Fund posted EPA’s inventory for 2023 emissions after obtaining it in May through a public records request. It showed that U.S. emissions had declined only 17 percent between 2005 and 2017, well short of what scientists say the world’s largest economy and second-largest annual emitter would need to do to avoid the worst effects of global warming. READ MORE
Excerpt from The Hill: The 2009 endangerment finding proposed that emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases (GHG) threaten public health and welfare, and that vehicular emissions are a contributing factor.
The Trump administration is now proposing to find instead that “that there is insufficient reliable information to retain the conclusion that GHG emissions from new motor vehicles and engines in the United States cause or contribute to endangerment to public health and welfare in the form of global climate change.”
The impacts of Tuesday’s proposal appear to be limited to its regulations on the auto industry and does not directly address the EPA’s regulations on other emitting sectors including power plants.
However, in June, the Trump administration separately proposed to find that power plants’ greenhouse gas emissions “do not contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution” and therefore should not be regulated.
The Trump administration estimated that repealing all climate regulations on cars and trucks will result in between $157 billion and $444 billion worth of benefits between 2027 and 2055. This includes between $114 billion and $365 billion in savings due to projected changes in the makeup of the vehicle market — namely that fewer vehicles will be electric than under Biden-era rules.
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However, if finalized, the moves are expected to put more carbon dioxide into the air and therefore exacerbate climate change.
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The rules are also expected to lead to increases in pollutants like soot that also stem from gas-powered cars.
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In conjunction with the EPA move, the Energy Department released a report claiming that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright has a history of downplaying climate change’s impacts.
While on the campaign trail, President Trump repeatedly pledged to repeal climate regulations on cars in particular, arguing that they harmed the auto sector and consumers’ choices.
Zeldin previously indicated plans to reconsider both the endangerment finding and climate regulations. READ MORE
Excerpt from USA Today: Ending greenhouse gas emissions standards for new cars is supposed to result in more “affordable choices” for consumers and “regulatory relief” for companies, according to a statement from the Environmental Protection Agency.
Yet, the agency’s draft impact analysis shows the proposal might instead cost the country more than it would save. It depends on what is counted and assumptions about the broader economy.
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A spokesperson for the agency agreed that some of the modeled scenarios were “highly speculative” but said they are designed to show the influence of market conditions, like gas prices. One estimate showed repealing emissions standards would cost the country $350 billion a year. Another predicting ideal economic conditions showed annual savings of $490 billion. Neither of those figures included the cost of public health impacts from air pollution.
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Other projections show that the repeal would result in overall savings once a gallon of gasoline becomes a dollar cheaper than previously forecasted.
Goffman (Joseph Goffman, a former assistant administrator at the EPA office overseeing air pollution rules) suggested that “an unrealistically low price for gasoline” was the only way the Trump administration could show the plan had broad economic benefits.
An EPA spokesperson told USA TODAY: “These values are illustrative and show the sensitivity of future gas savings based on different fuel prices. Many actions that can impact gas prices in the future and basing the benefits on future gas prices is highly speculative.”
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Trump administration officials have touted $54 billion in annual savings for Americans. An EPA spokesperson clarified that figure included benefits from expected new vehicle technology but did not include costs such as long-term maintenance. Adding those leads to a net cost increase of $18 billion per year.
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The repeal proposed by Zeldin would keep the particle pollution limits, however, it would remove standards for greenhouse gas emissions. The new estimates did not include the impacts, like public health, of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. READ MORE
Excerpt from Engine Technology Forum: More uncertainty about the future of regulation impacting engines, fuels, and vehicle technologies was delivered via the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recent announcement proposing to repeal the 2009 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) endangerment finding; a sweeping determination that underpins all regulations having to do with greenhouse gas emissions.
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Greenhouse gas rules are those principally dealing with fuel economy requirements for light-duty cars and trucks as well as medium and heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles. EPA’s proposal does not impact vehicle emissions standards that govern hydrocarbons, particulate matter (PM), or nitrogen oxides (NOx). Other administrative actions by the Trump Administration are reviewing some of these standards separately.
Whether the endangerment finding is repealed or upheld, don’t expect car and truck makers or engine manufacturers and fuel producers to stop exploring, innovating, and competing to develop more efficient and productive options for the future.
Government policy is only part of the equation that drives fuel and technology business decisions, but it is a big part and has been responsible for some major environmental accomplishments.
Consider the emissions rules governing medium and heavy-duty trucks today that went into effect over two decades ago. Virtually no regulation is without controversy and that one was no exception, but it came about with something in short supply today - certainty. The Clean Air Act dictates four years of lead time and three years of regulatory stability for engine manufacturers, and for good reasons.
As a result, steady introduction of the new generation of technology continues and now nearly two-thirds of heavy-duty trucks delivering our goods on the road today have advanced diesel and natural gas engines that achieve near-zero emissions as outlined in that rule. A similar and equally successful rule followed for the vast range of off-road machines and equipment in 2014.
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Sustainability practices are a success story delivering positive business outcomes while benefiting society by reducing waste, energy use, and water consumption.
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Ultimately, the types of cars, trucks, equipment, and fuels that shape our future will be determined by those who rely on them for their businesses based on operational fit, costs to own and operate, trade-offs and benefits, and alignment with their own sustainability goals. That’s the best way to manage the momentum of the ever-swinging pendulum of public policy. READ MORE
Excerpt from New York Times: While the Chamber of Commerce and fossil fuel groups had fought the endangerment finding when it was first written, none have been clamoring in recent years for its reversal. This year Marty Durbin, who leads the chamber’s energy institute, called the finding “settled law” and said his group, which is a major business lobbying organization, was not seeking its repeal.
“I’m not aware of anyone in industry who has been pushing for it,” said Jeffrey Holmstead, an energy attorney with the law firm Bracewell who served in the E.P.A. during the administration of the first President George Bush and, later, that of President George W. Bush.
The plan to eliminate the endangerment finding showcases the political evolution of Mr. Zeldin, who for years took moderate positions on climate change and other environmental issues.
A former congressman from a coastal community on Long Island that is struggling with rising sea levels linked to global warming, Mr. Zeldin once joined a bipartisan caucus to address climate change. In 2019 he broke with fellow Republicans to vote against an amendment that would have prohibited the E.P.A. from reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
An ally of Mr. Trump who prominently defended him during House impeachment hearings, Mr. Zeldin moved to the right on energy and other issues during his unsuccessful bid for governor of New York in 2022. Just weeks after his nomination to lead the E.P.A., Mr. Zeldin declared that he would be “driving a dagger through the heart of climate-change religion” by repealing regulations on greenhouse gas emissions READ MORE
Excerpt from Energy.AgWired.com: According to EPA, the Endangerment Finding is the legal prerequisite used by previous administrations to regulate emissions from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines. Without the finding, EPA would lack statutory authority under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) to prescribe standards for greenhouse gas emissions.
Some reports have speculated that rescinding the finding would also impact the Renewable Fuel Standard, which was authorized under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) President and CEO Geoff Cooper disagrees.
“Congress’s main objective with the renewable fuel standard was around energy independence and energy security and reducing the need for imported sources of energy, so that’s not affected at all by what EPA is proposing now on the endangerment finding,” said Cooper in the latest edition of The Ethanol Report podcast. “That’s very different than what what EPA did with tailpipe standards. Congress never gave them specific or explicit direction on tailpipe standards, so bottom line is we don’t see what EPA is proposing to do on the endangerment finding really having any impact at all on the Renewable Fuel Standard because again, the RFS has other purposes.”
Cooper believes EPA’s move is clearly a reaction to what the Biden Administration did on tailpipe standards. “They used the tailpipe standard regulatory framework to effectively force electrification of our transportation sector and effectively phase out and eliminate liquid fuels and and liquid-fueled vehicles.” READ MORE; includes AUDIO
Excerpt from The Conversation:
The Energy Department and the EPA seem to have run afoul of four laws in particular that may be tricky for the administration to get around.
1. Has the Energy Department produced a credible report?
A casual reader might think the Energy Department climate report is credible.
Its inside cover affirms that it “is being disseminated … in compliance with” the Information Quality Act. The word “disseminated” means that this is a final report and not just a draft.
The Information Quality Act, passed by Congress in 2000, requires “ensuring and maximizing the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information (including statistical information) disseminated by Federal agencies.”
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One author of the Energy Department’s report stated that the report was reviewed by “eight scientists/administrators employed by the DOE.” However, this does not meet the government’s standards for implementing the law, which requires a public record of review by scientific experts not affiliated with the department that issued the report.
2. Agencies cannot cherry-pick groups to give answers they want
The Federal Advisory Committee Act of 1972, or FACA, addressed concerns that “special interest groups” could “exercise undue influence” in promoting “their private concerns” on “matters in which they have vested interests.”
The law requires a public process for creating and appointing groups to advise the government and requires that the properly appointed group operates in public view and takes public comments along the way.
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Once appointed, a balanced group is also required to deliberate in public and receive public comments in formulating their report. That didn’t happen.
3. Federal agencies cannot be arbitrary or inconsistent in rulemaking
The Administrative Procedure Act of 1946 requires federal agencies to allow public participation in rulemaking processes and to follow consistent procedures and practices when developing regulations.
The law prohibits actions that are “arbitrary and capricious” – meaning decisions made without justification or regard for facts – or an “abuse of discretion.”
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4. Science Advisory Board review is also required
The EPA is also subject to the Environmental Research, Development and Demonstration Authorization Act of 1978. The act mandated that the EPA must establish a Science Advisory Board. It also requires that agency make available to its Science Advisory Board relevant scientific and technical information on any “proposed criteria document, standard, limitation, or regulation.”
The board must be given time to review the scientific and technical basis of the proposed action – in this case, the disseminated Energy Department report – now that the EPA is using this report to inform its regulatory action.
Under the Information Quality Act, the EPA may not develop a regulation based on a draft report.
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What’s next?
These laws exist to protect the public by preventing the federal government from being unduly influenced by narrow interests when disseminating evidence that informs policy decisions. Science-based agencies such as the Energy Department and the EPA have a legal requirement to follow the science.
The public has a chance to comment on the EPA’s proposal to rescind the 2009 endangerment finding and greenhouse gas vehicle standards until Sept. 15, 2025. And although the Energy Department disseminated its report as a final version, the department is accepting public comments on the report through Sept. 2.
For both, the most effective comments are evidence-based and not merely opinion.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, independent nonprofit institutions that advise the government, announced in early August that they will conduct a fast-track review of the science on whether greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare to submit as a public comment.
Because the Energy Department report is presented as final, it is also subject to the “request for correction” process under the Information Quality Act within 60 days of its initial release. READ MORE