We Won’t Get There without Sustainable Biofuels

by David Chiaramonti and Giacomo Talluri (EurActiv/Polytechnic of Turin/ART Fuels) ... A review of more than 40 sectorial forecast scenarios, conducted by the Research Consortium for R&D (RE-CORD), found consensus on two main facts: sustainable biofuels will still play a fundamental role all the way through 2050, and advanced biofuels are expected to become the largest share of biofuels contribution yet before 2040.

Through an extensive literature review work carried out by RE-CORD, which also provides the scientific coordination of ART Fuel Forum (AFF), more than 15 recent publications were collected (from 2016 onwards) stemming from the main governmental and private sector organizations, and reporting quantitative previsions on fuels demand in the EU transport sector over the 2030 to 2050 time period.

The analysis led to the collection of a fairly large amount of data, further reduced to a set of high-level indicators, such as the total final energy consumption in the whole transport sector, together with total biofuels and advanced biofuels expected consumption.

Referring to average figures among those reported in the studies, the total final energy consumption in transports is expected to decrease during the first half of the 2030-2050 period, as an effect of energy efficiency measures, combined with a quite extensive road fleet electrification.

Total biofuels average contribution should grow from 24.5 Mtoe in 2030 to 48.3 Mtoe in 2050. Advanced biofuels are expected to lead towards the second half of the period, totalling 36.5 Mtoe in 2050.

In relative terms, biofuels are projected to weight for almost the 8% of total final energy consumption in transport at 2030 and almost the 18% at 2050, with advanced biofuels growing from 2.8% (actual values) at 2030 – thus surpassing the RED II target – to more than 13% at 2050.

Sustainable biofuels contribution to the transport sector has then been framed into the expected EU fuel mix. It is interesting to note that, even at 2050, in the collected scenarios fossil fuels were expected to keep playing the bigger role, accounting for slightly more than half of the total demand.

Together with all sustainable biofuels, which would remain the main contributors among renewable energy sources, they will almost reach a 70% share of the total. Electricity contribution in 2050 is expected to grow five times from 2030 levels, reaching 15% of the final demand.

E-fuels and hydrogen are also expected to play an important role by 2050 (each with a 7% share of the total), while their forecasted role in 2030 is really minor in this average picture.

This projection gives further strength to the point stating that no “silver bullet” exists to decarbonise transport sector: all possible contributions are needed, with biofuels and low carbon fuels as a non-replaceable part of the framework.

The study then further deepened the analysis, to evaluate the forecast biofuels contribution to the four specific transport sub-sectors of light passenger vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime. READ MORE

Excerpt from Vox: Everyone could still have their same cars and houses — they would just need to be electric. ... Despite the titanic effort it would take to decarbonize, the US doesn’t need any new technologies and it doesn’t require any grand national sacrifice. All it needs, in this view, is a serious commitment to building the necessary machines and creating a regulatory and policy environment that supports their rapid deployment.

... relying on five already well-developed technologies: wind and solar power plants, rooftop solar, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and batteries.

Every time a gas or diesel car is replaced, it must be replaced with an EV; every time an oil or gas furnace is replaced, it must be replaced with a heat pump; every time a coal or gas power plant goes offline, it must be replaced with renewable energy.

Within three to five years, production of electric vehicles would have to increase four-fold, batteries 16-fold, wind turbines 12-fold, and solar modules 10-fold.

Accommodating all those new electricity loads would also mean expanding the size of the grid by three- or four-fold. “Today, we deliver about 450 gigawatts constantly,” says Griffith. “In the model of the future — where everyone’s house is the same size, everyone’s car is the same size, but it’s all electrified — you need to deliver 1,500 to 2,000 gigawatts.”

Almost all the heavy lifting in the maximum feasible transition is done by electrification, “the exception being 5-10 Quads of non–electrical energy sources coming from [biofuels]” the Rewiring America report says. “Hydrogen or other synthetic fuels (which are generated from electricity) are deployed for a few high–temperature applications. The scenario does not rely on any deployment of carbon capture and storage, and all primary energy sources are net zero.”

Rather than direct public funding, the MFT leans heavily into the idea that government capital will attract private capital through the establishment of new financing mechanisms.

For the average American household, going fully electric (rooftop power, heat pump, battery, EV) requires about $40,000. Obviously, most people can’t pay that up front, but 4 percent financing could bring it in reach for almost everyone.

The Green New Deal made some lofty demands for rapid industrial mobilization and decarbonization. The response of its critics was often that it lacked a detailed roadmap to accomplish its goals. Griffith has provided that roadmap, with detail down to the machine level. READ MORE