Vehicle Efficiency Transportation 2050: More EVs, but Conventional Vehicles Will Still Dominate
by Jieyi Lu (Environmental and Energy Study Institute) Making Vehicles More Efficient Is Critical to Reduce Emissions — … Over the next 30 years, electric vehicles (EVs) will grow and fuel economy will increase, but conventional gasoline vehicles will continue to dominate the U.S. vehicle fleet. That was the conclusion witnesses came to at a recent Congressional hearing about the future of transportation fuels and vehicles, which underscored the complicated task of decarbonizing the diffuse and diverse transportation sector.
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According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook of 2018 (AEO 2018), sales of new electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and hybrid vehicles are expected to jump to 19 percent of vehicle sales in 2050 compared to just four percent in 2017. … (T)he total share of conventional gasoline vehicles is estimated to drop from 95 percent in 2017 to 78 percent in 2050 because of the growth of electric vehicles. Despite the strong growth in EVs, conventional gasoline vehicles will likely still dominate the vehicle market with 71 percent of new sales in 2050, according to EIA projections.
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At the hearing, Dr. Jeremy Martin from the Union of Concerned Scientists testified, “Smart deployment of biofuels can support the progress of vehicle efficiency.”
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John Eichberger, Executive Director of the Fuels Institute, was confident that EVs would definitely play a major role in the market, but this process would take time. “If every vehicle sold today were equipped with a new technology, it would take about seven years before the new feature is present in more than 50 percent of the vehicles on the road—and that is assuming 100 percent immediate and persistent market adoption”.
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However, at the hearing, all witnesses agreed that stricter CAFE standards are necessary to improve fuel efficiency, increase U.S. automakers’ competitiveness, and drive consumer behavioral changes. According to the Annual Energy Outlook of 2018 report, with CAFE and advanced technologies, the average new light-duty vehicle fuel economy is expected to increase from 33.4 miles per gallon (mpg) in 2017 to 48.6 mpg by 2050. Using additional technologies, like renewable fuels, could also provide an immediate boost in vehicle efficiency. READ MORE
THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION FUELS AND VEHICLES (House Energy and Commerce Committee)
Mr. John Eichberger
Executive Director, Fuels Institute
Dr. John Farrell
Laboratory Program Manager – Vehicle Technologies, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Dr. Joshua Linn
Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
Mr. John Maples
Senior Transportation Analyst, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Dr. Jeremy Martin
Senior Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists
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- Opening Statement – Environment Subcommittee Chairman John Shimkus
- Opening Statement – Full Committee Chairman Greg Walden
- Document for the Record – Rep. Shimkus – Letter from VNG
- Document for the Record – Rep. Tonko – Report from the Union of Concerned Scientists
- Preliminary Transcript
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