The Renewable Era

December 01, 2021

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by Matthew Choi (Politico's Morning Energy) RENEWABLES ON THE UP: The world is getting more renewables, but it won’t be enough to hit net-zero global emissions by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency’s 2021 renewables report released today.

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IEA is also projecting strong biofuels growth this year, outpacing 2019 levels and bouncing back from last year’s pandemic slump. Biofuels are set to have a robust future, with Asia accounting for nearly 30 percent of new production by 2026, and India slated to become the third largest market for ethanol behind the U.S. and Brazil, according to the agency.

The report comes on the heels of the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow last month, where world leaders announced a parade of new commitments on everything from international coal financing to methane emissions. IEA credits the momentum for some of its projected renewables growth, but whether or not governments actually follow through on their commitments is a very big if. Some of the most ambitious pledges, including one to phase out the use of fossil fuels and another to end domestic coal financing, failed to garner the backing of major emitters, such as the United States and China.

Renewables also face high production costs.... READ MORE

Renewables 2021 -- Analysis and forecasts to 2026 (International Energy Agency)

Excerpt from International Energy Agency: Global demand for biofuels is set to grow by 41 billion litres, or 28%, over 2021-2026 in the main case. The recovery to pre-Covid-19 demand levels accounts for one-fifth of this demand growth. Government policies are the principal driver of the remaining expansion, but other factors such as overall transport fuel demand, costs and specific policy design influence where growth occurs and which fuels grow quickest. The combination of these influences pushes Asian biofuel production past that of Europe during the forecast period. Policies in the United States and Europe help demand for renewable diesel (also known as hydrogenated vegetable oil [HVO] in Europe) to nearly triple.1 The factors influencing biofuel demand are all subject to uncertainty. For example, some governments have responded to the current high price of feedstock by relaxing or delaying biofuel blending mandates, with the effect of reducing demand. However, over the medium term, major policy discussions in the United States, Europe, India and People’s Republic of China (hereafter ‘China’) hold the promise of a more than doubling of biofuel demand growth in the accelerated case.

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Rising prices are slowing biofuels’ growth, but according to our forecast, demand in 2021 nevertheless recovers from the lows seen in 2020 during the Covid-19 crisis. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Indonesia are managing climbing feedstock and biofuel costs by temporarily reducing or delaying blending mandates. We estimate these actions to reduce demand by 3%, or 5 billion litres, in 2021 compared to a scenario where mandates remained unchanged or were increased as planned. By August 2021 biofuel prices had increased by between 70% and 150% across the United States, Europe, Brazil and Indonesia,2 depending on the market and fuel, from average 2019 prices. For comparison, crude oil prices increased by 40% over the same time period.

While overall biofuel demand returns to 2019 levels this year even with slower growth, the recovery is uneven. Ethanol demand remains 4% below 2019 levels in 2021 and does not fully recover until 2023. High ethanol prices in Brazil and lower gasoline demand in the United States relative to 2019 levels are both driving lower ethanol volumes in 2021. By 2023 US and European gasoline demand has recovered from Covid-19 disruption, but remains well below 2019 levels (IEA, 2021c). Increasing energy efficiency, surging electric vehicle sales and behaviour change all contribute to lower demand. Lower gasoline demand reduces ethanol volumes under current policies. However, ethanol demand recovery in Brazil and growing demand in Asia eventually offset declines in the United States and Europe in 2023.

By comparison, in 2021 biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet, expand well beyond 2019 levels, albeit from a low base for biojet. The combined demand for these fuels in 2021 is up 15%, or 7 billion litres, from 2019 levels. Renewable diesel demand in the United States and Asian biodiesel demand are responsible for the majority of this growth.

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Asia surpasses total European biofuel production in the forecast period thanks to strong domestic policies, growing liquid fuel demand and export-driven production. Asian countries account for nearly one-third of new production over the forecast period. Blending targets for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia and India’s ethanol policies are responsible for most of this growth. North American biofuel demand grows the most by 2026; however, 40% of this growth is demand recovery following Covid-19 declines. The United States and Brazil remain the largest centres for both biofuel demand and production.

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Ethanol and renewable diesel lead biofuels growth

Renewable diesel demand nearly triples between 2020 and 2026, primarily thanks to policies in the United States and Europe. However, in absolute volume, ethanol demand growth surpasses that of renewable diesel. The majority of renewable diesel growth is concentrated in the United States and Europe. In both regions renewable diesel competes well in a policy environment that values GHG reductions and places limits on some biofuel feedstocks, as it can be produced with a low GHG intensity using wastes and residues. It has a further benefit in that it can be blended at higher levels than biodiesel.

Ethanol and biodiesel growth remains robust, however, thanks to demand in Latin America and Asia, and recovery from Covid-19 declines. In Asia, India’s efforts to reach 20% ethanol blending by 2025 support global ethanol demand growth, while Indonesia’s 40% blending mandate planned for 2022 stimulates biodiesel expansion. In both countries, growing transport fuel demand over the forecast period, in combination with mandates, accelerates biofuel demand. Similarly, in Latin America, Brazil’s biofuel policies combined with growing gasoline and diesel demand drive up biofuel use. READ MORE