Renewable Methanol Update (December 2025)

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February 02, 2026

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(GENA Solutions Oy) Selected highlights from GENA’s Project Navigator Methanol:

By the end of December 2025, Project Navigator Methanol tracked 273 renewable and low-carbon methanol projects totaling 56.5 Mt by 2030, including 23.3 Mt of e-methanol, 22.1 Mt of biomethanol, and 11.2 Mt of low-carbon methanol.
In 2025, 94 projects were added and 34 halted projects were removed, bringing the renewable methanol project pipeline to 12.4 Mt above December 2024 levels, while low-carbon methanol capacity rose by 3 Mt.
2025 saw multiple first-of-a-kind industrial-scale facilities start operations, including a 42 kta e-methanol plant in Denmark and two 50 kta biomethanol plants in China: one based on biomass gasification and one hybrid facility combining biomass gasification with electrolysis.
Eight commercial-scale renewable methanol projects started construction or reached FID during 2025, while another twelve projects entered the FEED stage.
By the end of 2026, renewable methanol capacity may reach around 2 Mt. Longer-term growth will largely depend on regulatory developments and rising demand across maritime, chemical, aviation, and road transport sectors, with 2030 capacity estimated at 6–13 Mt.

As of December 2025, GENA’s Project Navigator Methanol tracks 273 renewable and low-carbon methanol plants and projects with a total capacity of 56.5 Mt by 2030, including:

133 e-methanol (23.3 Mt),
122 biomethanol (22.1 Mt),
18 low-carbon methanol (11.2 Mt).

Four projects were added in the December release, and one frozen project was excluded. In total during 2025, GENA registered 94 new renewable and low-carbon methanol projects and excluded 34 halted projects. As a result, from December 2024 to December 2025, the project pipeline increased by 12.4 Mt for renewable methanol and 3 Mt for low-carbon methanol. However, project pipeline growth slowed in November–December 2025, following the decision to adjourn the adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework in October.

Most renewable methanol projects utilize one of the following technological pathways: power-to-methanol, biomass gasification, waste gasification (waste-to-methanol), and biomethane reforming. Three small-scale biomethanol facilities are also based on black liquor treatment, a by-product of the pulp and paper industry.

Power-to-methanol facilities use renewable hydrogen and CO₂ to synthesize e-methanol. As of end-2025, the power-to-methanol pathway accounts for about 51% of renewable methanol project pipeline capacity by 2030, but only 12% of operational capacity.

The second-largest group of renewable methanol projects gasifies agricultural and/or forestry residues to produce syngas and then synthesizes methanol. They account for 43% of renewable methanol project pipeline capacity and 27% of operational capacity. About 70% of biomass gasification projects plan to use hydrogen boosting to increase production capacity (a hybrid configuration also called bio-e-methanol).

Waste-to-methanol projects include gasification of residual waste, such as refuse-derived fuel, or a mix of waste and biomass—sometimes also with hydrogen as an additional feedstock. Waste-to-methanol projects could certify a portion of their product as biomethanol and a portion as circular methanol (a recycled carbon fuel). About 2% of the project pipeline is based on this configuration.

Biomethane reforming facilities account for about 60% of operational renewable methanol capacity as of end-2025, but only 4% of the project pipeline by 2030. This includes both stand-alone facilities that use only biomethane or biogas as feedstock and mass-balance facilities that partially use biomethane feedstock at natural-gas-based facilities.

China, Europe, and North America are expected to be the three main centers of renewable and low-carbon methanol production. These regions account for 95% of biomethanol, 87% of e-methanol, and 100% of low-carbon methanol projects.

China holds the largest share of both the biomethanol (78%) and e-methanol (43%) pipelines. Europe follows with 33% of e-methanol and 11% of biomethanol. North America leads in low-carbon methanol, with a 96% share.

China is advancing faster in renewable methanol development than other regions. The country accounts for more than 90% of all renewable methanol capacity currently under construction. Low production costs and CAPEX, availability of biomass and renewable electricity, and shorter project development periods are among the major factors driving faster project development in China.

The renewable methanol industry reached a turning point in 2025, with several first-of-a-kind industrial-scale facilities starting operations. This includes the launch of the Kassø e-methanol plant in Denmark in May 2025 (42 ktpa), Shanghai Electric’s Taonan hybrid biomethanol facility (50 ktpa; straw gasification plus renewable hydrogen boosting) in Jilin, China in July 2025, and the CIMC Green Energy biomass gasification plant (50 ktpa) in Guangdong, China in December 2025. Successful operations of these facilities would help reduce technological risks and costs for new projects, as well as increase renewable methanol availability in the market.

Seven demonstration, small-scale, or mass-balance facilities also started production during 2025. Several other renewable methanol facilities started commissioning or reached substantial construction progress during 2025 and will start operations in 2026.

Eight commercial-scale renewable methanol projects started construction or reached final investment decision (FID) during 2025, while another twelve projects started FEED. Both e-methanol and biomethanol project pipelines are still dominated by early-stage projects (feasibility or pre-feasibility); however, this is mainly driven by rapid pipeline growth.

In 2026, we expect renewable methanol capacity could reach about 2 Mt—a more than two-fold increase compared to 2025. At the same time, there will likely be a slowdown in project pipeline growth compared to 2024–2025, partially due to an increase in the number of frozen projects.

Further growth of renewable methanol capacity will depend substantially on regulatory developments—especially the fate of the IMO Net-Zero Framework—as well as demand growth in maritime, chemicals, aviation, and road fuels. In particular, the development of methanol-to-jet and methanol-to-olefins projects could create substantial new markets for e-methanol and biomethanol. GENA estimates that renewable methanol capacity could range from 6 to 13 Mt by 2030.

This public brief surfaces only a small slice of what we track each month to help orient the market. The underlying Project Navigator Methanol service includes the project-level records (timeline and milestones, feedstock and electricity sourcing, offtake status, price and carbon-intensity indicators, investments, and subsidies), monthly change logs, and supply–demand scenarios. Those details inform the summary above and are available within the service for users who need to drill down from headline numbers to decision-grade insight.

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