More Roadblocks Pile Up on the Road to Electromobility

by Philppe Marchand (Transport Energy Strategies) ... Directionally, as transport is responsible for one quarter of CO2 emissions, mobility has to get away from fossil fuels. Transport energy has to be de-fossilized, in order to play its due part in the climate change mitigation. Electromobility looks like a proper answer, in the future, should we then have generated enough low-carbon and affordable electricity. But the climate change challenge also forces us to face a different equation than in the last two centuries, where new, emerging, energies on the offer side, coal after biomass, oil after coal, natural gas after oil, were relentlessly piling up on each other, in an additional mode, ever fueling more growth.

Now, to reduce CO2 emissions, we face a substitution mode. Fossil energy has to go, at least strongly recede, and be replaced by renewable, low-carbon energy. This new equation implies we must also deal with demand, not only offer, to be able to deal with the size of the challenge. And it is much more difficult to change demand, when present, social, societal or psychological, patterns do not fit well with future specifications, as described in the three considerations above.

The likely consequence of this dilemma is that the mobility transition could take much more time than climate models show we have, in theory. If time is not on our side, we should then pay more attention to interim solutions, like biomass-based or green electricity-based low-carbon fuels, respectively readily or nearly-readily available to de-fossilize transport, and support proper incentivizing regulations favoring these solutions for the transition period, that is until 21st century low-carbon offer and demand meet.

And, by the way, as many of our old (thermal) vehicles end-up, after a series of second-hand ownership, in less advanced countries, Africa, Latin America or the Middle-East, the switch to electromobility should not displace CO2 emissions from the West to the Global South. Biofuel can be a solution, as countries in the South can produce advantaged feedstocks, with economic and social benefits along the biofuel supply chain. Experts tell us the less advanced countries, in their evolution towards improved well-being, do not have to make the same mistakes as the West did during the last century, and may directly step into 21st century low-carbon technologies. This may be true for electricity generation or telephone, where infrastructure building is key, it may not be true for mobility, where affordability comes first, and imported second-hand thermal cars are a cheaper option than electric vehicles. READ MORE

Excerpt from Transport Energy Strategies: One, the strategy should have a long-term vision for investments to materialize. And it does not have to be perfect, a sub-optimal solution today, that can be a transition tool, is better than an ideal solution, possibly not invented yet, tomorrow, when it is too late. Avoid the “tragedy of the time horizon” after having witnessed the “tragedy of commons”, in other words. Better be pragmatic than utopist or, worse, ideologically minded.

Second, the three pillars of sustainability seem robust to define and support the strategy:

Three, content: In the West, where we over-use planetary resources, frugality has to be promoted. Not deprivation, just a better and smarter use of resources, like in the circular economy or by re-thinking travel around new low-carbon technologies and the re-balancing between private and public transport. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico Pro: Gov. Kathy Hochul has cracked the door open to the potential for new, small nuclear power plants as a way for the state to try to meet its ambitious climate goals.

The prospect was once dismissed by top officials and carries a whiff of irony after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo shuttered the state’s second-largest nuclear plant, Indian Point in Westchester County, in 2021.

But as the state’s far-reaching zero emissions electricity goal by 2040 looms, there’s more openness to the idea.

Hochul asked about the prospect for small, new nuclear reactors to contribute to the state’s climate goals at a private dinner with environmentalists on April 29, according to two attendees who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the private conversations.

It’s not the first time that her administration has raised the idea. One of her top aides suggested as much earlier this year.

“I would venture to say that there are probably communities around the state that may have infrastructure that is mothballed or retired power plants, fossil power plants, that have transmission infrastructure that may welcome something like new nuclear in their community,” John O’Leary, Hochul’s deputy secretary for energy, said at an energy policy event in January this year in response to a question about the possibility. READ MORE