Advanced BioFuels USA

by Osaretin Oghomwen Omorodion* (Advanced Biofuels USA) On November 13^th, the National Academies of Science’s Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education convened with its board of Environmental Change and Society to assess current trends in monitoring climate change as well as the social cost of carbon emissions. Additionally, the panel collectively discussed a draft that would ultimately recommend the U.S amend its Social Carbon Cost figures to accurately reflect data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) recent assessment.

Chris Hope, a faculty member from the UK’s Cambridge Judge Business School, was one of the primary speakers at the conference. His presentation on scientific models of climate change was accented by his expertise in environment and energy. Hope shared an example of PAGE modeling, which is the abbreviation for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect. It assesses the economic cost of damages that result from climate change, by using projections in future increases in global mean temperature (GMT), the economic costs of mitigation policies, and the overall impact of adaptation measures to ultimately measure social costs.

PAGE models use simple equations to simulate results from both complex scientific and economic models. Uncertainty and potential changes from trends is also factored into the models. Calculations are made for eight world regions and for long periods of time, up to the year 2200.

Climate models such as PAGE have been beneficial for such entities such as the Environmental Protection Agency during the construction of its Regulatory Impact Analysis which helped them develop policies towards mitigating air pollution.  Overall, the model is designed to assist policymakers analyze the costs of, and consequences of, action and inaction towards carbon emission reductions.

The presentation included graphs and models that demonstrated climate changes, but also had more of a socioeconomic tone at the hand of speakers such as Robert Mendelsohn, an economist at Yale University, who gave an economic interpretation of current trends of rising temperatures, deriving that agriculture is the economic sector most vulnerable to temperature changes.

Inaction could result in as much as 23% less in global incomes by 2100, according to research published in October 2015 by Nature magazine. An assessment between an economist based in California and the Electric Power Research concluded that each ton of carbon emission emitted into the atmosphere could cost up to $220 of economic productivity.

After the presentations, the panel discussed an overview of the seminar’s topics. Overall, the tone was pensive and deeply analytical. Members drew upon conclusions of how climate models can be applied by policymakers to make decisions towards sustainability and cutting harmful emissions and what amendments the U.S should make to its Social Cost of Carbon calculations based on the new scientific findings summarized in the climate models.

Personally, I thought it was brilliant to estimate the damages caused per ton of carbon emitted, which is at the basis of the Social Cost of Carbon calculations. Such quantification makes it clear what consequences are catalyzed by relentless emissions of greenhouse gases.

Ultimately, calculating the consequences of climate change in monetary figures is a challenge that includes factors of human health, property damages, net agricultural productivity, and more. Proper mitigation will take the collaboration of scientists and policymakers and both facets should work vigilantly to cut relentless carbon emissions that ultimately threaten our way of life and the planet’s health.

* Osaretin Omorodion brings her degree and interest in biology and environmental science to serve as an occasional correspondent for Advanced Biofuels USA.