MIT Adds to the Cap-and-Trade Debate

by James Ott (Aviation Week) A report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) should be required reading for environmental policymakers. “The Impact of Climate Policy on US Aviation” was issued this week by the Transportation Research Board. It is an independent assessment and takes no prisoners in the sometimes strange world of environmental protection.
The policy in question is the proposed American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2482), also known as the Waxman-Markey bill. It looked like a sure winner for a while and prompted the study. But the plan to curtail greenhouse gas emissions failed in the Senate. Yet cap-and-trade programs are likely to come up again, says Niven Winchester, an MIT research scientist, so the conclusions of the report are connected to a likely future.
Based on traffic growth forecasts from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), emissions from aviation, if the law was passed, are estimated to increase between 97-122% between 2012 and 2050. This compares with 130% growth without a policy.
...In addition to increasing fuel price, the study indicates that the law would reduce fleet efficiency, “as increased air fares reduce demand and slow the introduction of new aircraft.” READ MORE Download study