Growing Clean Fuels Credits Markets to Shape North America’s Low Carbon Future

Business News/Analysis, California, Canada, Marketing/Markets and Sales, Opinions, Oregon, Policy

April 2, 2021

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(WebWire) Outlook on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits in Carbon Intensity Based Fuel Markets — In the next 5 years, nearly one-third of the transportation sector in North America will be covered by clean fuel standards, helping accelerate the uptake of cleaner fuels and electric vehicles. This is analyzed in the InSight report just published by CaliforniaCarbon.info (CCI): “North America’s Carbon Intensity Based Clean Fuel Standards: Outlook on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits.”

The first-of-a-kind InSight Report examines and compares California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS), Canada’s emergent Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), the standards in Oregon and British Columbia (CFP and BC-LCFS, respectively, and the emerging North-Eastern and Mid-Atlantic Transportation and Climate Initiative-Program (TCI-P).

The report contrasts each of these clean fuel programs to better understand the regulatory design and market opportunity of each one. Based on CCI’s proprietary CFS-CarbonOutlook Model, demand-supply scenarios are created and credit prices are forecasted for the two largest markets, LCFS and CFS. The exercise sheds light on how the highest emitting sector of the American economy could clean up its act.

Unlike local point source emissions, barrels of fuel can be exported to any state market. When these clean fuel markets are all operational, the relative price of California’s LCFS credit vs. the Canadian CFS credit will soon determine how much RNG or Biodiesel will be sold across these two markets. The fuel credit prices in BC, Oregon, or across the TCI-P will all feed into decision-making. READ MORE

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