From Seed to Sky: The Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

February 18, 2026

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by Aimee Nielson (Seed World) Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is no longer a fringe idea. Airlines want it. States are building policy around it. Researchers are racing to lower costs. The next question is what it means for seed companies, breeders and the agricultural value chain that will ultimately supply it.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pushes Agriculture Into Aviation’s Supply Chain

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is often framed as an energy transition story. In practice, it is becoming an agriculture story just as quickly.

The aviation sector is trying to replace petroleum-based jet fuel with alternatives that meet the same performance standards without requiring new aircraft, engines or fueling infrastructure. That constraint immediately pulls agriculture into the conversation. SAF must be produced from hydrocarbons found in biological materials, including crop residues, forestry byproducts, waste streams and purpose-grown biomass.

Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI) executive director Steve Csonka describes the scale of the shift.

“We’re talking about really a new industrial sector that we’re trying to bring online to produce more sustainable fuels for aviation,” Csonka said in a press release.

Progress is real. SAF has moved beyond pilot projects and into commercial delivery at multiple airports. But the conversation inside the industry still revolves around one persistent barrier: economics.

Price Still Determines How Fast SAF Scales

The aviation sector knows how to produce sustainable aviation fuel. The problem is making it affordable enough to compete with petroleum-derived jet fuel.

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How Do Feedstocks Move From Concept to Farm-Level Reality?

The SAF conversation quickly narrows to the question agriculture understands best: what raw materials can be produced consistently, aggregated efficiently and converted economically.

Elvis Ebikade, director of aviation, Bioleum Corporation, says the pathway to fuel production is inseparable from the characteristics of the feedstock, adding that those technologies are primarily tied to the feedstocks.

Current commercial SAF pathways rely heavily on oil-based inputs such as used cooking oils and vegetable oils. Emerging technologies are pushing into lignocellulosic materials, including crop residues and woody biomass, with the goal of expanding supply and lowering costs.

But abundance on paper does not guarantee practicality.

“On paper, corn stover is abundant,” Ebikade says. “In practice, it is very hard to work with, because it has a lot of ash.”

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Co-Products And Conversion Technology Shape The Economics

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Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center director and University of Wisconsin–Madison Department of Bacteriology professor Timothy Donohue, emphasizes that fuels and chemicals must be developed together.

“Only half of their profit comes from fuels. The other half comes from chemicals,” he says, describing petroleum refinery economics and the model bioenergy researchers are working to replicate.

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State Policy Drives Early Market Development

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Clean Fuels Michigan executive director Jane McCurry says uncertainty around federal policy has pushed states to take a more active role in building incentives and market frameworks.

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Michigan is pursuing both a sustainable aviation fuel tax credit and a broader clean fuel standard designed to reward lower-carbon fuels across multiple sectors.

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Infrastructure And Blending May Become The Next Bottleneck

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The Food Versus Fuel Debate Still Shapes Public Perception

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Agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, waste streams and purpose-grown energy crops are all part of the SAF feedstock landscape.

Ebikade notes that global food security concerns remain a factor in how the issue is viewed internationally, even when local production systems differ.

Csonka stresses that SAF development is not tied to a single crop or region. The strategy depends on sourcing feedstocks suited to local agronomic conditions worldwide.

McCurry points to a broader awareness gap and says consumers often do not realize how much of modern agriculture already feeds energy, industrial and animal production systems rather than directly supplying food. That lack of understanding shapes reactions to new uses for agricultural materials.

SAF Creates New Questions for Seed Companies and Researchers

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Opportunity and Risk Will Grow Together READ MORE

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The Growing Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (ePlane AI/ChatGPT)

Excerpt from ePlane AI/ChatGPT: Market Growth and Future Constraints

The global SAF market is projected to reach $50 billion by 2036, yet industry experts anticipate a feedstock “tipping point” beyond 2030, which could lead to supply constraints. To address these challenges, airlines are exploring alternative technologies such as hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), which converts sewage and organic waste into jet fuel, offering a potential solution to the scarcity and high cost of traditional feedstocks.

Ambitious initiatives like the Cascadia Coalition aim to produce 1 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2035. New market entrants, including Syzygy Plasmonics, are securing demand through offtake agreements, while North America remains a leader in the bio-based SAF market due to strong policy frameworks and established production facilities.

Despite these advances, the industry continues to face significant hurdles in scaling production and ensuring a reliable, affordable supply of feedstocks to meet growing demand. The future success of SAF will depend on the coordinated efforts of agriculture, technology, and policy to overcome these challenges. READ MORE