Advanced BioFuels USA

by Stephen Mayfield (International Society for Applied Phycology Newsletter)   I am often asked, “When will algae-based transportation fuels be commercially available?” My answer tends to be that they are available now, and have been since roughly 1900. In fact, algae-based fuels are the only kind you can buy! I say this somewhat facetiously, because crude oil and the fuels that come from it are all derived from algae. Granted, these are ancient fossilized algae that have undergone some chemical transformations over millions of years, but more or less all of the crude oil processed today, including things like shale oil and tar sands, are ultimately derived from algae.
I realize that what people generally mean by these questions is “when will it be possible to grow, harvest, and process living algae into drop-in hydrocarbon fuel that can compete economically with fossil fuel”, but I answer the way I do, in order to make one essential point: that fuel from algae is not a scientific hypothesis, or some new scientific discovery that needs to be validated. It is a done deal, a proven and known commodity; fuels from algae power most of our cars, trucks, ships and planes today.
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That is actually a very complex question that has many variables associated with it. Some of those variables have to do with future cost, of both crude oil as well as renewable algae oil, and neither of those costs are easy to
predict, but we do see trends. …
…  $100 a barrel is the new “floor” on oil prices; once it dips below that price, fracking becomes economical unviable, the supply will drop, and prices will climb again. Therefore, this sets the floor but not the ceiling, or even the average price. It’s hard to guess what that ceiling or average price will be, but current trends indicate that it will continue on the path of the last ten years, which is to go up on average about 10% per year, meaning that five years from today it is realistic to assume oil prices at roughly $150 a barrel.
…So let us say that $240 a barrel is today’s price for algae oil, and then assume that as a result of logical biological and process decisions, algae fall into an agricultural model of increased productivity and reduced price over the next ten years. Viewing American agriculture for the last 50 years, it is clear that crop yields have increased dramatically over this period, with corn yields for example going up almost 400%. It seems reasonable to assume that algae yields will follow a similar path, … (A)lgae oil costs should reasonably decrease by 50% with the next five years and be half of today’s cost within a decade. …
…The EROI on fossil oil has historically been as high as 100, meaning for every 1 barrel of oil worth of energy put in, 100 barrels of oil could be recovered. This is no longer the case, and today the EROI on fossil fuels ranges from 2.5 to about 4.5, with fracking and tar sands being on the lower end of those returns. A recent life cycle analysis of algae oil production from the Sapphire Energy pilot facility in New Mexico (3) returned a pilot scale EROI of 1, and a projected EROI of 2.5 to 3 when the full commercial scale system is completed.
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So, my prediction … algae oil achieves economic parity with fossil crude oil at $140 a barrel in 2019
and beats it by $50 a barrel by 2024 when algae oil is at full commercial production scale.  READ MORE