Comment: Net-Zero Aviation Is More than a Flight of Fantasy

by Tim Ryley and Emma Rachel Whittlesea (Australian Aviation) In this cross-posting with The Conversation, Griffith University aviation professor Tim Ryley and research fellow Emma Rachel Whittlesea discuss the steps still required to achieve net-zero emissions in aviation.

Most recently, at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, the industry merely reasserted a commitment to a plan known as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.

The scheme relies on carbon offsetting, which essentially pays another actor to reduce emissions on its behalf at lowest cost and doesn’t lead to absolute emissions reduction in aviation. The scheme also encourages alternative cleaner fuels, but the level of emissions reduction between fuels varies considerably.

Governments have generally failed to provide strong leadership to help the aviation sector to reduce emissions. This in part is because pollution from international aviation is not counted in the emissions ledger of any country, leaving little incentive for governments to act.

For example, as a result of government policy to make Sweden climate-neutral by 2045, the Swedish aviation industry developed a roadmap for fossil-free domestic flights by 2030, and for all flights originating from Sweden to be fossil-free by 2045.

Achieving fossil-free flights requires replacing jet fuel with alternatives such as sustainable fuels or electric and hydrogen propulsion.

The European Union plans to end current tax exemptions for jet fuel and introduce measures to accelerate the uptake of sustainable fuels.

The United Kingdom is finalising its strategy for net-zero aviation by 2050 and a public body known as UK Research and Innovation is supporting the development of new aviation technologies, including hybrid-electric regional aircraft.

Australia lacks a strategic framework or emissions reduction targets to help transition the aviation industry. The Emerging Aviation Technology Program seeks to reduce carbon emissions, among other goals. However, it appears to have a strong focus on freight-carrying drones and urban air vehicles, rather than fixed wing aircraft.

This decade, we expect a rapid emergence of electric and hybrid aircraft for short-haul, commuter, air taxi, helicopter and general flights. Increased use of sustainable aviation fuel is also likely.

To help decarbonise aviation in Australia, industry and government should develop a clear strategy for emissions reduction with interim targets for 2030 and 2040. This would keep the industry competitive and on track for net-zero emissions by 2050.