California to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

September 24, 2020

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(Our Daily Planet) Yesterday, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state will phase out sales of all gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. As Governor Newsom said in a separate event with Democratic governors yesterday, people have climate “goal fatigue” and are ready for the application of those goals–this move on gas-powered cars walks the walk on California’s ambitious climate goals.

As NPR explained, in signing the executive order on Wednesday, this amounts to the most aggressive clean-car policy in the United States. Although it bans the sale of new gas cars and trucks after the 15-year deadline, it will still allow such vehicles to be owned and sold on the used-car market.

Why This Matters: Transportation is the biggest source of carbon emissions in the country and this mandate will help lead the rest of the nation and boldly supporting the transition to emissions-free vehicles. The details of how the California Air Resources Board will create the transition plan are yet to be released but this will certainly be challenged in court.

This puts an even heavier emphasis on the importance of the presidential election. Should Donald Trump be reelected, a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court will likely not uphold California’s ambitious phase-out.

Go Deeper: The LA Times posted an informative Q&A about the known details of this announcement. READ MORE

Governor Newsom Announces California Will Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars & Drastically Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuel in California’s Fight Against Climate Change (Office of Governor Gavin Newsom)

Sales of new gas-powered cars banned in California by 2035: What you need to know (Los Angeles Times; includes VIDEO)

California Governor Signs Order Banning Sales Of New Gasoline Cars By 2035 (NPR)

No ICE: California bans sale of non zero-emission cars from 2035 (Biofuels Digest)

California seeks to sell only electric cars by 2035 (The Hill)

Governor bans post-2035 sales of new gas-fueled cars (E&E News)

Newsom bans new gas cars — and begs Trump for a fight (Politico; includes VIDEO)

ATTENTION OIL INDUSTRY: California Is Banning Gasoline Powered Vehicles -- You have one chance to save yourselves and COME CLEAN (The Auto Channel)

California to phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035 (Washington Post; includes VIDEO)

California governor signs order to mandate zero-emission trucks (Fleet Owner)

Renewable Fuels Association on California's gas powered car ban (RFD TV; includes VIDEO)

DRIVING THE DAY: (Politico's Morning Energy)

Wheeler calls Calif.'s EV goal 'political' (E&E News)

Power plays: The EPA raised legal questions about California's plan to ban new gas-powered cars by 2035. (Washington Post)

WHEELER QUESTIONS CALIFORNIA EV ORDER: (Politico's Morning Energy)

Newsom Issues Executive Order Requiring All New Passenger Vehicles to be Zero-Emission (NGT News)

How a gas car ban could fail in Calif. (E&E News)

CALIFORNIA FIRES BACK AT EPA: (Politico's Morning Energy)

California electric car plan crushes Iowa farmers in move toward Green New Deal (Fox News)

Corn farmers concerned California EV push will sink ethanol sales (Green Car Reports)

GOLDEN GRAIN CEO HOPES CA GOVERNOR COMES AROUND ON ETHANOL (Brownfield Ag News; includes AUDIO)

China signals shift from gas-powered cars by 2035 (E&E News)

The Interaction of the Clean Air Act, California’s CAA Waiver, Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Renewable Fuel Standards and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (Advanced Biofuels USA)

Excerpt from Los Angeles Times: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s executive order banning sales of new combustion-engine motor vehicles in California starting in 2035 will mark a radical change in transportation infrastructure. It also will prompt many questions from consumers. Here are answers to some:

Is this a real ban on combustion vehicles?

The order calls it a goal but gives the California Air Resources Board authority to lay out a transition plan. CARB has enforcement powers. The order calls for a plan to phase in requirements between now and 2035, but details are yet to be determined.

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The consulting firm McKinsey estimates EVs will reach price parity with combustion-engine cars as soon as 2025 and transform from money losers to moneymakers for car companies. Other studies predict price parity by the end of the decade.

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Where will I charge my new electric car?

Most people charge EVs at home. The network of public charging stations is still sparse — but growing. The mandate should help solve the chicken-egg problem for capital spending on stations and create plenty of places to charge up.

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What about hybrids?

They’ll be allowed until 2035, but because they come equipped with both a battery and a combustion engine, they will not be allowed to be sold once the ban takes place.

I love gasoline engines in cars and trucks. Will I still be able to own one after 2035?

Yes. The ban doesn’t affect existing cars, and according to the governor’s order, it won’t cover out-of-state sales. READ MORE

Excerpt from NPR: Newsom, a Democrat, also threw his support behind a ban on petroleum fracking but called on the California Legislature to make that change.

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In January 2018, Gov. Jerry Brown signed an executive order setting ambitious targets of 200 hydrogen fueling stations and 250,000 electric vehicle chargers to support 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on California roads by 2025.

The number of zero-emission electric vehicles being sold in the state has been on the upswing in recent years, although they accounted for fewer than 8% of all new cars sold in California last year.

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Kreutzer (David Kreutzer, a senior economist at the Institute for Energy Research) also pushed back at the notion that electric vehicles are zero-emission. "Electric cars might not have emissions at a tailpipe, but they do have emissions at the power plant," he said. READ MORE

Excerpt from Biofuels Digest: All Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to be zero-emission where feasible by 2045
Air transport, marine not affected.

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In addition, the Air Resources Board will develop regulations to mandate that all operations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles shall be 100 percent zero emission by 2045 where feasible, with the mandate going into effect by 2035 for drayage trucks. To ensure needed infrastructure to support zero-emission vehicles, the order requires state agencies, in partnership with the private sector, to accelerate deployment of affordable fueling and charging options. It also requires support of new and used zero-emission vehicle markets to provide broad accessibility to zero-emission vehicles for all Californians. The executive order will not prevent Californians from owning gasoline-powered cars or selling them on the used car market.

California transportation leaders are required to plan near term actions and investments in support of the order by 7/15/2021.

The Complete Text

It’s here.

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The Practical Impact

For now, not much. California will not be able to mandate much in the way of a transition until the COVID-based economic crisis passes, above and beyond what the state is already doing with incentives for EVs and production and sales targets.

Why this is mostly window dressing

California was already sharply decarbonizing and the LCFS is targeted to reduce transportation emissions by 20 percent compared to the baseline, by 2030, and the baseline was dropping roughly 1 percent per year. So, California was scheduled to be at roughly 25 percent, anyway, by 2035 — not starting to move that way in 2035.

And in “California’s Clean Fuel Future: Assessing Achievable Fuel Carbon Intensity Reductions Through 2030” — Ceres, NextGen America, and the Union of Concerned Scientists found that California could feasibly shift to up to a 26 percent target by 2030.

Biofuels Impact

No, renewable fuels are not being thrown out of California.

1. First of all, this is an order for California passenger car sales starting in 2035. Doesn’t impact vehicles sold elsewhere and transferred into California, and there will be plenty of gasoline-powered vehicles on the road into the 2050s given that it takes almost 20 years to turn over a fleet.

2. Doesn’t impact medium and heavy duty trucks, excepting those sold in California and the clock doesn’t start ticking until 2045 for them — we’re looking at a phase-down of renewable diesel in or around the 2050s and 2060s.

3. Air transport and marine are not impacted.

4. The executive order noted that “The State Air Resources Board, in consultation with other State agencies, shall develop and propose strategies to continue the State’s current efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels beyond 2030 with consideration of the full life cycle of carbon.”

And the order recognizes that “California is already working to decarbonize the transportation fuel sector through the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which recognizes the full life cycle of carbon in transportation emissions including transport into the State.”

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Reaction from the stakeholders

Tyson Keever, Chair of the California Advanced Biofuels Alliance:

“We understand what Governor Newsom is trying to achieve and laud the move to a low-carbon transportation future, but an electric-only future is not a science-based solution. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has a proven, technology driven, market-based solution right in front of them in the form of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program. Through biodiesel, renewable diesel, and numerous other home-grown sources, the program reduced 14.6 million tons of carbon emissions in 2019 alone, with room for diverse growth well into the future.”

“Biodiesel and renewable diesel can reduce carbon today and help move the State away from petroleum. In fact, biodiesel and renewable diesel alone have displaced over 3.3 billion gallons of petroleum diesel since the LCFS program began in 2011. This announcement only harms our industry that has proven time and time again to be at the focal point of the success of the LCFS. We need to embrace all carbon-reducing fuels and not pick winners and losers.”

The Bottom Line

We like the Low Carbon Fuel Standard better. Mandated monopolies for EVs remove incentives by manufacturers to drive down EV vehicle costs, and for power producers to de-carbonize.

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The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard is a simpler and better idea, it doesn’t generate the same sexy headlines., but it packs a punch in performance. It simply says that California will reduce carbon — and lets the markets figure out which combination of technologies and infrastructures will deliver that most efficiently.

California was on a fast trajectory, so fast that the California legislature doubled down on the LCFS and increased the carbon reduction targets — precisely because it was working so well.

We would have been happier if the Governor and legislature had shifted the targets more aggressively on carbon — say, 35 percent by 2035, and let markets figure out how to deliver. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico: But California Republicans immediately seized on Newsom's order as an overstep in a year of unprecedented executive decisions on coronavirus closures. And Trump could use it as another cudgel to portray Democrats as out of touch by forcing drivers into electric vehicles still spurned by the vast majority of Americans.

After signing his executive order, Newsom seemed to welcome Trump criticism. He sent a fundraising email within hours drawing a contrast between Trump's actions on auto emissions and his own. And he braced for a presidential tweetstorm.

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Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign at the Center for Biological Diversity, said it appears California would need EPA approval to end sales of internal combustion engine cars.

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The state could argue that switching to zero-emissions vehicles will significantly curb conventional pollutants, such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides in addition to carbon dioxide. The state has struggled to meet air quality standards because of its car-heavy culture, growing population and unique geography. But it’s not clear the EPA would buy that argument either.

“This is yet another example of how extreme the left has become,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said. “They want the government to dictate every aspect of every Americans’ life, and the lengths to which they will go to destroy jobs and raise costs on the consumer is alarming. President Trump won’t stand for it.”

But Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden also did not endorse Newsom's order Wednesday. Spokesman Matt Hill said Biden considers a transition to electric vehicles an "enormous opportunity" to create a million union jobs and work on the climate crisis. "He's got a plan to do that and thinks of it in terms of incentives and investments, not bans," Hill said in a statement.

The Golden State is the world's fifth-largest economy, with more than half of its emissions stemming from the transportation sector, so the move is expected to significantly help reduce tailpipe pollution from vehicles with internal combustion engines.

California's influence on the market is so great that it won support last year from five automakers, who sided with the state instead of the White House on vehicle efficiency standards. One car company — Ford — went so far as to launch new ads Wednesday that call out Chevrolet, Jeep and Toyota for siding with Trump.

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But it was not immediately clear if Ford and the other four automakers who signed on with California are backing Newsom's latest executive order. The Alliance for Automative Innovation, which includes all five signatories in addition to other automakers, said in a statement that while the industry is committed to expanding electric vehicles, "neither mandates nor bans build successful markets."

"Currently, electrified vehicles account for less than 10 percent of new vehicle sales in California," the group said. "While that is the best in the nation, much more needs to be done for California to reach its goals. It will require increased infrastructure, incentives, fleet requirements, building codes, and much more."

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Still, passing new regulations against a mountain of industry opposition will prove difficult. California business groups, from the California Chamber of Commerce to the California Manufacturers & Technology Association, criticized the executive order as unrealistic.

California Business Roundtable President Rob Lapsley said in an interview that the "radical step" to ban internal combustion engines "makes no sense" and is a rushed decision, with no guarantee of affordability for many who live in an already-expensive state.

Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro said that his electric utility wants more to be done on economy-wide electrification, saying that the state's recent approval of Edison's proposed 38,000 charge ports is just a "drop in the bucket" for what's needed to reduce emissions.

State Senator Melissa Melendez (R-Lake Elsinore) said the move would spur a backlash among California residents already struggling with the state's high cost of living and unemployment due to coronavirus closures. She said many could perceive his order as "taking away their choice."

State Senate Republican Leader Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) stressed the affordability issue and posted on Twitter an old clip of Newsom talking about his own expensive electric cars and solar panels.

Melendez said the statement was a surprise to lawmakers just 40 days from the election, and it “certainly did put more moderate Democrats in a precarious situation, having to defend what he did."

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He also outlined plans to support more bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, especially in low-income and disadvantaged communities. READ MORE

Excerpt from the Washington Post: Under Newsom’s watch, the state approved drilling permits for more than 1,400 new oil and gas wells in the first half of 2020, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. Kassie Siegel, director of the advocacy group’s Climate Law Institute, praised the phaseout of gas-powered cars as “a very big step” for California but said the governor still had not gone far enough to curtail oil production.

“Newsom can’t claim climate leadership while handing out permits to oil companies to drill and frack,” she said. “He has the power to protect Californians from oil industry pollution, and he needs to use it, not pass the buck.” READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: DRIVING THE DAY: California Gov. Gavin Newsom's order this week to ban sales of new cars with gasoline engines in the state by 2035 will run headlong into a wall put up by EPA — unless Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins the presidency, former EPA officials tell Pro's Eric Wolff. Newsom's executive order directs California's state agencies to take actions to phase out gasoline cars and diesel-fueled trucks, and implement a variety of other zero-emission transportation initiatives. But it included no citations of legal authorities.

California has implemented a low-carbon fuel standard , and it has traditionally used a waiver it received under the Clean Air Act to mandate increasingly stringent mileage standards in conjunction with the federal government. But Trump's EPA withdrew the waiver last year. "Because EPA has now rescinded the waiver that allows California to have its own vehicle [greenhouse gas] standards, a future EPA will need to reinstate it or grant a new one," said Jeff Holmstead, EPA's air chief under former President George W. Bush. "If there is a Biden administration, I suspect that this would happen fairly soon."

Labor pains: Newsom also got a swift reminder Thursday that his clean car agenda could hit a snag with California's powerful labor unions if it doesn't protect jobs, Pro's Jeremy B. White reports . California Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez (D) tweeted Thursday: "Can we immediately start talking about jobs? We can hate on oil, but the truth is our refinery jobs are really good middle class jobs. Union jobs. Jobs can't be an afterthought to any climate change legislation." READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Post: The Environmental Protection Agency sent a letter to California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) claiming that the statewide shift to electric vehicles could strain the state’s electric grid.

“California’s record of rolling blackouts—unprecedented in size and scope—coupled with recent requests to neighboring states for power begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can’t even keep the lights on today,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler wrote in the letter.

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The letter also argues that California will need approval from the EPA to go forward, given that the Trump administration took away the state’s authority to set its own vehicle tailpipe emissions standards in 2019.

Newsom announced last week that California intended to stop selling gasoline-powered cars within 15 years, a move which, if implemented, could have ripple effects across the country and supercharge the production of electric vehicles. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: WHEELER QUESTIONS CALIFORNIA EV ORDER: EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler on Monday blasted California Gov. Gavin Newsom's executive order seeking to ban the sale of internal combustion engines in the state by 2035, Pro's Alex Guillén reports. In a letter to Newsom, Wheeler raises questions regarding the order's "legality and practicality," writing that since EPA has revoked a waiver allowing California to enforce its zero-emissions vehicle program, the state would have to obtain a new one to enforce any regulation related to Newsom's order.

"While the EO seems to be mostly aspirational and on its own would accomplish very little, any attempt by the California Air Resources Board to implement sections of it may require California to request a waiver to U.S. EPA," Wheeler wrote. Legal experts agree California would face almost certain rejection from the Trump administration but could succeed if Biden is elected in November.

Wheeler also questioned how, given recent rolling blackouts "unprecedented in size and scope," California would "expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can't even keep the lights on today." READ MORE