Airlines Warn Green Fuel Goals at Risk as Supply Falls Short

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December 09, 2025

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by Joanna Plucinska and Olivia Le Poidevin (Reuters) SAF production not meeting expected volumes, says IATA's Willie Walsh; SAF currently 0.3% of global jet fuel usage, projected 0.7% by 2025; Airlines blame producers for high SAF prices, insufficient production

The global airline industry is likely to miss its targets for green jet fuel use in the coming years, the International Air Transport Association said on Tuesday, blaming fuel producers and regulators for the "disappointing" progress.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), made largely from waste or used cooking oil, can cut emissions significantly compared with traditional jet fuel. However, it remains two to five times more expensive than conventional fuel.

IATA expects 2.4 million metric tons of SAF to be available in 2026, covering just 0.8% of total fuel consumption. That means the growth of the SAF sector has slowed - production growth doubled between 2024 and 2025, but will likely only grew by 0.5 million metric tons between 2025 and 2026, IATA said.

The wider aviation sector committed in 2021 to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, relying heavily on a gradual switch to SAF.

"We're not seeing SAF produced in the volumes we had hoped for and had expected. That is disappointing," the trade group's director general Willie Walsh told journalists. He had previously warned that the 2050 net zero goal could be at risk.

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Airlines have long said that they are willing to buy all of the SAF available, but accuse jet fuel producers of artificially inflating prices and failing to produce enough of the greener fuel.

"It's not an issue of price, it's an issue of availability, and they're just not able to get their hands on the SAF that they require to fulfil the ambition that they expressed," Walsh said.

IATA's Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen added that regulatory mandates introduced by the European Union and Britain have encouraged fuel producers to raise prices on SAF even further, with Walsh adding that the practice is synonymous with price gouging. READ MORE

Related articles

Beating the bottlenecks (Biofuels International)
IATA warns poorly designed SAF mandates threaten decarbonisation (Biofuels International)
IATA: SAF production growth rate is slowing down, essential to correct course ahead of e-SAF mandates (International Air Transport Association (IATA)/Ethanol Producer Magazine)
SAF ‘availability’ a concern, says IATA’s Walsh (Biofuels International)

Excerpt from Biofuels International: The aviation industry has been under mounting pressure to tackle its carbon footprint. Now, a new study has delivered a vital message: the pathway to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable – but only with urgent and coordinated global action.

The report, published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in collaboration with Worley Consulting, concludes that there is enough sustainable feedstock to produce the volumes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) needed to decarbonise the industry over the next 25 years.

Crucially, all the feedstocks considered in the study meet strict sustainability standards, meaning they would not lead to land-use changes or compete with food production.

“We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised, then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”

The scale of the challenge

To hit its net-zero target, the airline industry will need to produce 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF annually by 2050. At present, SAF production is still in its infancy. The few facilities operating at commercial scale primarily use HEFA technology, which converts waste products such as used cooking oil into jet fuel.

The report identifies two main sources that could deliver the SAF required:

Biomass-based SAF:
- Biomass has the potential to produce over 300 Mt of SAF annually by mid-century;
- This would come from sustainable sources such as agricultural residues, forestry waste, and municipal solid waste;
- However, some of this feedstock may be diverted to other industries, such as shipping or heavy manufacturing, unless aviation is prioritised
Power-to-Liquid (PtL):
- The remaining 200 Mt would need to come from PtL fuels, which are synthesised using renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon;
- This technology is still in its early stages, and scaling it up will require major investment in renewable energy and carbon capture infrastructure

By maximising the output of bio-SAF, the pressure on more expensive e-SAF production can be reduced. But doing so will require better conversion efficiency, faster technology deployment, and investment in supply chain infrastructure.

Why SAF matters

Aviation is considered one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise. Unlike road transport, where electric vehicles are now common, there are currently no scalable alternatives to liquid fuels for long-haul flights.

Hydrogen and battery-electric aircraft may play a role in the future, but they are unlikely to meet the needs of global aviation at scale by 2050.

SAF is therefore seen as the single most important tool for reducing aviation emissions. When produced from sustainable sources, SAF can cut lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel.

The urgency is clear. According to IATA, if the industry fails to meet its 2050 net-zero target, it risks not only environmental backlash but also regulatory and economic consequences, including higher carbon taxes and restrictions on operations.

Barriers to progress

While the report paints an optimistic picture of feedstock availability, it also highlights several serious obstacles that must be overcome to turn potential into reality.

Slow technology rollout
- Most SAF today comes from HEFA technology, but this alone cannot deliver the necessary volumes;
- Emerging technologies – such as AtJ and PtL – need to be commercialised quickly, yet progress has been slow;
- These pathways require access to cheap renewable energy, hydrogen, and carbon capture systems, all of which are currently limited
Competition for feedstock
- Other industries, including shipping and heavy manufacturing, are also vying for sustainable biomass feedstock;
- Policymakers will need to prioritise aviation, which has fewer decarbonisation alternatives, to ensure sufficient supply.
Lack of infrastructure
- From refining facilities to storage and distribution networks, the global SAF supply chain is underdeveloped;
- Significant investment will be required to create a system capable of producing and transporting hundreds of millions of tonnes of SAF.
Policy and investment gaps
- Governments must coordinate policies that de-risk private investment, support innovation and create a stable SAF market;
- Without consistent global policies, companies may be reluctant to commit to the large-scale projects needed

“Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president of Sustainability and Chief Economist. “The time to act is now—delays will only make the challenge harder.”

Regional leadership

The study also highlights the role of key regions in driving global SAF production. North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China and ASEAN nations are expected to play pivotal roles due to their access to biomass, renewable energy resources, and industrial capacity.

For example:

Brazil could leverage its agricultural sector to become a leading producer of bio-SAF;
Europe is already home to ambitious climate policies that could accelerate PtL development;
China and India have vast renewable energy potential that could support future e-SAF production.

By fostering regional hubs of SAF production, countries could stimulate local economies, create thousands of jobs, and improve energy security.

Opportunities beyond aviation

The SAF transition is not just about decarbonising air travel. It also represents a huge economic opportunity for the energy sector and broader economy.

Energy companies could diversify their portfolios by investing in SAF production facilities, while governments could use SAF as a driver for green jobs and innovation.

This, in turn, would help achieve national energy independence goals, particularly for countries seeking to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports.

The road ahead

The study concludes that achieving net-zero by 2050 is possible – but the window for action is closing fast. With just 25 years remaining, policymakers and industry leaders must work together to turn theoretical potential into tangible results.

“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action,” Walsh said. “We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.”

To succeed, the report recommends:

Accelerating technology rollout by funding pilot projects and commercial-scale plants;

Prioritising aviation in policies that allocate limited sustainable biomass feedstock;

Investing in infrastructure such as refining capacity and renewable energy;

Creating strong policy frameworks that give investors confidence to back SAF at scale.

Final thoughts

The aviation industry has been criticised for its environmental impact, but this report offers a hopeful vision.

SAF has the potential to transform air travel, allowing people and goods to move across the globe without destroying the planet.

However, the challenge is immense. The transition will demand billions of pounds in investment, unprecedented levels of international cooperation, and bold leadership from both governments and the private sector.

As Thomsen summed up: “Governments, energy producers, investors and the aviation sector must work together to de-risk investment and accelerate rollout. The time to act is now.”

If the world rises to this challenge, the skies of 2050 could be cleaner, quieter, and sustainable – proving that progress and preservation can indeed fly hand in hand. READ MORE

Excerpt from International Air Tranport Association (IATA)/Ethanol Producer Magazine: The International Air Transport Association released new estimates for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production showing that:

In 2025, SAF output is expected to reach 1.9 million metric tons (Mt) (2.4 billion liters), double the 1 Mt produced in 2024. However, in 2026, SAF production growth is projected to slow down and reach 2.4 Mt.
SAF production in 2025 represents only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption, increasing to 0.8% the following year. At current price levels, the SAF premium translates into an additional USD 3.6 billion in fuel costs for the industry in 2025.
The estimated SAF output for 2025 of 1.9 Mt is a downward revision from IATA’s earlier forecasts due to lack of policy support to take full advantage of the installed SAF capacities. SAF prices exceed fossil-based jet fuel by a factor of two, and by up to a factor of five in mandated markets.

“SAF production growth fell short of expectations as poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry. If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park. But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonization of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The negative effects of EU & U.K. SAF mandates

Mandates in the EU and U.K. have failed to accelerate SAF production and adoption:

In Europe, ReFuelEU Aviation has sharply increased costs amid limited SAF capacity and oligopolistic supply chains. Fuel suppliers have widened their profit margins to such an extent that airlines pay up to five times more than the price of conventional jet fuel and double the market price of SAF. All this comes without guaranteeing supply or consistent documentation.
The U.K’.s SAF mandate has triggered price spikes, leaving airlines to absorb the burden.

The cumulative impact of poorly designed policy frameworks is that airlines paid a premium of USD 2.9 billion for the limited 1.9 Mt of SAF available in 2025. Of this, USD 1.4 billion reflects the standard SAF price premium over conventional fuel.

“Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets, slow investment, and undermine efforts to scale SAF production. Europe’s regulators must recognize that its approach is not working and urgently correct course. The recent European Commission STIP announcement is a step forward though it lacks a clear timeline. Actions, not words, are what matter,” said Walsh.

The failure to accelerate the expansion of SAF production capacity will cause many airlines to review their own SAF targets. “Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10% SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments. SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition. These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered,” said Walsh.

Looking ahead to e-SAF mandates

With e-SAF mandates approaching in the U.K. (2028) and EU (2030), it’s essential not to repeat the policy missteps seen with SAF.

Already, e-SAF faces a much higher cost base, potentially up to 12 times that of conventional jet fuel. Without strong production incentives (as opposed to mandates), supply will fall short of targets. On top of that, compliance costs could escalate to EUR 29 billion by 2032 if targets aren’t met, as seems very likely with the current policy framework.

“Given the low SAF production volumes, it is evident that current policies are not having the desired effect. Faced with such facts, regulators must course-correct, ensure the long-term viability of SAF production, and achieve scale so that costs can come down. Mandates have done just the opposite, and it is outrageous to repeat the same mistakes with e-SAF mandates,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist. READ MORE

Excerpt from Biofuels International: The world’s airline industry is set to miss its targets for green jet fuel use in the coming years, the International Air Transport Association said and it blamed fuel producers and regulators.

IATA expects 2.4 million metric tons of SAF to be available in 2026, covering just 0.8% of total fuel consumption, Reuters reported.

That means the growth of the SAF sector has slowed - production growth doubled between 2024 and 2025, but will likely only grew by 0.5 million metric tons between 2025 and 2026, IATA said.

The wider aviation sector committed in 2021 to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, relying heavily on a gradual switch to SAF.

"We're not seeing SAF produced in the volumes we had hoped for and had expected. That is disappointing," the trade group's director general Willie Walsh said.

"It's not an issue of price, it's an issue of availability, and they're just not able to get their hands on the SAF that they require to fulfil the ambition that they expressed," Walsh said.