A Look into the Maximum Potential Availability and Demand for Low-Carbon Feedstocks/Fuels in Europe (2020–2050) (Literature Review)

(Concawe) In light of the EU’s ambitious targets for achieving a lowcarbon economy by 2030, Concawe has completed a study of the long-term availability of low-carbon feedstocks and fuels, and the associated costs, based on a literature review. This article summarises the outcomes of the Concawe study.

This article looks into the medium- and long-term potential availability of alternative low-carbon feedstocks and fuels, and presents the associated costs based on a literature review. Some of the sources included in the report envisage a significant long-term role for advanced alternative fuels in Europe, identifying the main research and innovation (R&I) and policy conditions that would enable the potential of low-carbon fuels to be fully realised. Some of the ongoing Concawe LCP-related work on The Refinery 20501 draws support from the conclusions and main figures included in this article, and is scheduled for publication in April 2019. The European Commission has recently published its long-term strategic vision for Europe, A Clean Planet for all.

[1] Recognising that climate change represents an urgent threat to societies and the planet, the Commission has set the goal, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement, of keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by 2050.

Efforts to improve the CO2 efficiency of the EU transport sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions, will be crucial to achieving these goals. Technologies for the production of low-carbon fuels is one area that is especially interesting in terms of helping the transport sector to accomplish these targets.

Sustainable biofuels, subject to the updated sustainability criteria currently proposed by the European Commission,[2] are one of the main low-carbon liquid alternatives to petroleum-based fuels for transport, as they are easily deployable using existing transport infrastructure. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED),[3] the Fuels Quality Directive (FQD)[4] and the ‘ILUC Directive’[5] set out biofuels sustainability criteria for all biofuels produced or consumed in the EU to ensure that they are produced in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner.

Current legislation (RED I and RED II) requires a 7% cap on the contribution of conventional biofuels, including biofuels produced from energy crops, to count towards the renewable energy directive targets regarding final consumption of energy in transport in 2020 and in 2030 . Secondly, the RED II directive (that entered into force on 24 December 2018) sets as a binding minimum a 0.5% target for advanced biofuels by 2021 and 3.5% by 2030. Thirdly, the directives harmonised the list of feedstocks (Annex IX) for the production of advanced biofuels across the EU. Those can be considered to count double (i.e. to be twice their energy content) in terms of their contribution towards the 2030 target of 14% for renewable energy in transport.

These directives require that biofuels produced in new installations — starting after 1 January 2021 —emit at least 65 % fewer greenhouse gases than fossil fuels.

The Fuels Quality Directive allows gasoline fuels in Europe to contain up to 10% bio-derived oxygenates, usually in the form of ethanol, while diesel fuels can contain up to 7% fatty acid methyl ester, although other bio-derived components are also allowed.

This study addresses the potential availability of low-carbon feedstocks, and looks at different demand scenarios to provide an outlook for biofuel potential for the 2020, 2030 and 2050 time-horizons in Europe and worldwide, covering the following scope:

This study is based on a literature review of selected external sources. It highlights the uncertainty associated with the maximum potential availability of biofuels, which is heavily dependent on the key enabling framework conditions that would be required to unleash the full potential for low-carbon feedstocks/fuels in Europe. READ MORE