Will the Electric Grid Be Able to Power EVs — And Everything Else?

September 07, 2022

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by Meghan McCarty Carino (MarketPlace) If all cars in California were electric, the state would need to produce around 50% more electricity, according to one estimate. ... Californians have been urged not to charge their electric cars during peak hours as the Golden State sweats through the second week of record-breaking temperatures. Coming on the heels of the state government banning the sale of gasoline cars by 2035, the irony is pretty hard to miss.

On one hand, the searing reality of the climate crisis could not be more clear, but on the other, the power grid’s readiness for a fully electric future remains an open question.

Americans drive about 3 trillion miles a year. Right now, about 1% of cars on the road are electric. Move all those miles from gas to battery, and “it’s going to require us to generate more electricity,” said Joshua Rhodes at the University of Texas at Austin.

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That power needs to get to cars, said Michael Hagerty with the Brattle Group, via “transmission lines, distribution systems and chargers.”

His firm estimates that the full electricity supply chain will need about $100 billion of investment to meet demand by 2030. READ MORE

U.S. electrical grids are not prepared for climate change (MarketPlace)

Biofuels are still getting ignored in favor of electric vehicles (KIWA)

Opinion Can California’s electric-car mandate survive future heat waves? (Washington Post)

California Is Facing An Electricity Crisis. But It Has Also Mandated A Switchover To Electric Vehicles (Forbes)

Inflation Reduction Act could raise prices on clean energy, warns Bank of America -- Without additional transmission capacity, the law could incentivize inefficient development of renewables and result in higher price volatility. (Utility Dive)

Why EVs won’t break the grid (E&E News)

26 million acres needed to achieve zero-carbon goals -- By dedicating about 1% of the country’s land to solar energy—an area roughly the size of Kentucky—we could enable the nation to power itself with zero carbon emissions. (PV Magazine)

With Manchin bill stalled, will FERC ever site power lines? (E&E News)

The American EV boom is about to begin. Does the US have the power to charge it? (The Guardian)

Electric cars won't overload the power grid — and they could even help modernize our aging infrastructure (Insider)

Spending Levels on Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure in North America -- Rate of T&D spending is significantly below what is required to build a resilient grid of the future (Guidehouse Insights)

The U.S. power grid has an oversight gap: Small power line spending -- Regulators fear that without better oversight of these smaller projects, the country is ill-prepared to take on the massive additional investment required to meet the Biden administration’s clean energy goals. (Politico Pro)

America needs a new environmentalism -- Preventing clean-energy infrastructure from being built is no way to save the planet (The Economist)

$2.5B transmission line could 'unlock' shared renewables -- The planned project from Allete and Grid United would allow more energy to flow across the U.S., enabling the Midwest to send power to the West and vice versa. (Politico Pro)

Offshore wind, but make it float ... But here’s the rub: (Politico's Power Switch)

US greenlights major transmission line for renewable energy in Western states (Associated Press)

U.S. power grid faces 'more frequent and more serious disruptions,' NERC CEO warns (Politico Pro)

Europe's power industry warns ageing grids risk green goals (Reuters)

Residents of One of Arizona’s Last Ecologically Intact Valleys Try to Detour the Largest Renewable Energy Project in the US -- The SunZia transmission line that would carry wind energy from New Mexico to California has sparked one of the most consequential fights over the development of green spaces for green energy. (Inside Climate News)

Excerpt from Forbes: California’s EV mandate followed by Flex Alerts raises a broader climate policy issue. Should governments ensure an uninterrupted electricity supply before they mandate a switch to EVs? Poorly-executed climate plans could backfire and derail climate progress. Below we highlight two challenges to EV mandates: creating new transmission capacity and hesitancy about nuclear power (for charging stations, a third bottleneck in the EV rollout, see here).

Creating new transmission capacity

Switching to EVs will help the climate only if electricity generation is decarbonized – otherwise, one has substituted increased coal/gas emissions from electricity generation for gasoline emissions from cars. But zero emission generation is only half the story in the climate puzzle. The system must be able to move zero emission electricity from generation sites to consumption centers where most EV owners tend to be located.

As of now, the US transmission system seems to lack this capacity. About two-thirds of U.S. solar capacity and 99% of wind capacity is utility-scale, located outside big cities, the major consumption centers. This is especially pronounced for wind because much of America’s wind potential is concentrated in a “wind belt” which runs from North Texas through the Dakotas and to the Canadian border. Thus, moving this electricity from generation sites to consumption centers requires creating a massive new transmission system.

Princeton’s Net Zero America report notes that “to achieve a zero-carbon future by 2050, the existing high voltage transmission capacity will need to expand by approximately 60 percent by 2030 and triple compared to 2020 capacity through 2050 to connect wind and solar.”

Could this be done? Massive funds are required but this is probably less of an issue for the U.S. The key obstacle is probably political: local opposition to new high voltage transmission lines. Maine voted down a transmission line that would bring hydroelectricity from Quebec to Massachusetts. After the Maine Supreme Court overturned the referendum, the case is back in the lower court.

How might this opposition be addressed? Communities oppose transmission lines because they fear that lines and towers will disrupt the landscape and hurt property values. In fact, some coastal communities are also opposing offshore wind turbines for similar reasons. Companies could address this opposition by, say, burying transmission lines, which raises transmission costs. The implication is that undergrounding transmission lines might become a political necessity, a payment for the “social license” to construct new transmission lines. And the higher costs should be factored in when policymakers make a case for decarbonization.

Political opposition might also be diffused via permitting changes. One might ask: why is the US able to quickly build gas pipelines but not high voltage transmission lines? An important factor is that gas pipelines basically require an approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, while electricity lines need to be approved by federal, state, and local authorities. Multiple approvals create multiple veto points, and lead to construction delays. Perhaps climate groups should start lobbying for the Senate Bill, the “Streamlining Interstate Transmission of Electricity Act” that seeks to streamline siting procedures for interstate transmission lines.

Is nuclear power required to switch over to EVs?

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In 2016, a nonprofit coalition of the Utility Reform Network, the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies, and Friends of the Earth issued a report which suggested that electricity generated by California’s Diablo nuclear plant was not economical. For context, Diablo meets 9.3% of the state’s electricity needs. Surprisingly, PG&E, the utility that owns Diablo, agreed and announced Diablo’s closure upon the expiry of its license in 2025. But in May 2022, California’s governor Newsom began making a case to keep Diablo open. On September 1, the state legislature agreed to provide a loan of $1.4 billion to PG&E to keep Diablo working until 2030.

Why this confusion and last-minute policy decisions about nuclear energy? Did California policymakers not see the coming electricity crisis? Recall, the state had to institute rolling blackouts in 2020, well before the EV mandate that will substantially increase electricity demand. READ MORE

Excerpt from E&E News: Over the next several decades, however, the energy pull on the grid will increase significantly, as will demand from other electric sources as the country weans itself off of fossil fuels. Utilities are aiming to boost their capacity by adding clean energy sources, expanding battery storage and building transmission lines.

“We’re talking about a pretty gradual transition over the course of the next few decades,” said Ryan Gallentine, transportation policy director at Advanced Energy Economy. “It’s well within the utilities’ ability to add that kind of capacity.”

Adding capacity to the grid would be necessary with or without transportation electrification. Perhaps a more important consideration, experts and utilities said, is load management — utilities’ ability to accommodate fluctuations in energy supply and demand in real time to avoid outages.

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Part of load management in the coming decades could involve continued “flex alerts” like the ones issued in California earlier this month. They call on residents to voluntarily conserve energy for the greater good. But that shouldn’t be an issue for most EV owners, because they have more flexible and affordable fueling options than owners of gas vehicles, said Fitzgerald of Smart Electric Power Alliance.

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Improvements to the grid are seen by experts as necessary not only to prevent power outages from high demand, but also to help the U.S. meet its climate goals by facilitating the transition away from gas-guzzling vehicles. The stakes are high.

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In April, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed changes to transmission planning standards that would require utilities to conduct long-term planning to meet the needs of electrifying transportation, said Celeste Miller, a FERC spokesperson.

“In large part, the utilities are doing the work, regulators are supporting it, approving a lot more proactive programs, and we’re kind of still figuring out what’s going to work best,” Fitzgerald said.

“We can’t just sit back and say, ‘OK, the grid can handle it; it’ll take care of itself,’” Baldwin added. “It will take attention, and it will take some adjustments to how things have been done in the past, but all in all, I’m optimistic that this is something that we can do.” READ MORE

Excerpt from PV Magazine:Solar farms in the U.S. built and being built to date currently occupy an estimated half million acres. Adding up the required additional acreage across all 50 states, we would need an additional 13 million acres of solar farms in the next decade to meet the zero-carbon goals, over 25 times more than what has been built to date (Figure 6.). Reaching this reality would also require additional energy storage and infrastructure like transmission lines, substations, and distribution lines, which could be roughly estimated at another 13 million acres. This Kentucky-size acreage required for green electricity production, transportation, and storage represents around one percent of the land in the continental United States. READ MORE

Excerpt from E&E News: FERC oversees the bulk power system, including the sale of electricity in interstate commerce. It also regulates the transmission of natural gas across state lines, oversees the interstate transport of oil and authorizes gas pipelines, among other authorities.

When the commission grants gas pipeline permits, it enables developers to seize private property to make way for their projects. While states often need to sign off on certain additional permits, the commission can ultimately approve pipelines without the consent of states — and developers frequently begin construction before they’ve received state permits.

Transmission lines work differently. State regulators need to issue permits for those projects in order for them to move forward. And prior to the growth of renewable energy in the 21st century, many transmission projects ran primarily from a power plant — such as a coal or nuclear plant — to cities and towns, so interstate lines were not always needed.

Historically, “the electricity industry was a local industry, and primarily a state-regulated industry,” said Jeff Dennis, managing director and general counsel at Advanced Energy Economy, a clean energy trade association.

By contrast, the natural gas industry required a pipeline network to move gas resources “from one region of the country — originally, the Gulf Coast region — to population centers,” Dennis said.

Manchin’s permitting package, which he and other lawmakers have said they hope to continue discussing for potential future bills, proposed an update to the transmission siting framework (Climatewire, Sept. 22).

Specifically, the package would have allowed FERC to permit certain transmission projects deemed by the secretary of Energy to be in the national interest, even if states weren’t necessarily on board. To qualify, projects would need to be “consistent with the public interest,” as in protect or benefit consumers, as well as be in harmony with national energy policy, according to the bill text. READ MORE

Excerpt from The Guardian: But there are roadblocks – specifically when it comes to charging them all. “Range anxiety,” or how far one can travel before needing to charge, is still cited as a major deterrent for potential EV buyers.

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The administration’s target of 500,000 public charging units by 2030 is a far cry from the current count of nearly 50,000, according to the Department of Energy’s estimate. And those new chargers will have to be fast – what’s known as Level 2 or 3 charging – and functional in order to create a truly reliable system. Today, many are not.

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That could include the roads themselves charging EVs through a magnetizable concrete technology being piloted in Indiana and Detroit. READ MORE

Excerpt from Insider: Though EV sales are rising, Americans keep their cars for 12 years on average, so it's going to be a long time before the entire US fleet changes over.

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Still, grid upgrades will be needed to handle the extra load, experts say. According to a 2020 study from the Brattle Group, 20 million light-duty EVs on US roads by 2030 will require a $45 to $75 billion investment in more robust energy generation, distribution, and storage.

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If drivers continue to charge whenever they feel like it, "then it means we need to build an extremely robust grid," Matthias Preindl, an electrical engineering professor at Columbia University, said.

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The Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck can act as a backup generator and power a home for up to three days, for example. READ MORE

Excerpt from Associated Press: The U.S. government is greenlighting a proposed multibillion-dollar transmission line that would send primarily wind-generated electricity from the rural plains of New Mexico to big cities in the West.

The Interior Department announced its record of decision for the SunZia project Thursday. It comes about a year after an environmental review was completed as part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to clear the way for major transmission projects as it looks to meet climate goals and shore up the nation’s power grid.

The SunZia transmission project in New Mexico has been more than a decade in the making. The U.S. Defense Department and others initially raised concerns about the path of the high-voltage lines, prompting the developer to submit a new application in 2021 to modify the route.

New Mexico’s renewable energy authority is among those invested in the SunZia project, which would include roughly 520 miles (836 kilometers) of transmission lines and a network of substations for getting wind and solar power to Arizona and California.

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More than 150 applications for solar and wind development are still in the agency’s queue, official said.

Land managers also are reviewing two other major transmission projects that would funnel electricity generated from renewable sources in remote spots to large western markets. One would run through seven counties from Las Vegas to Reno, Nevada, and the other would stretch between central Utah and east-central Nevada. READ MORE