by Jim Lane (Biofuels Digest) ... There are many pathways from biomass to jet — right now, the hottest is ATJ, or alcohol to jet. In the case of Gevo, they want to convert first-gen ethanol projects to making isobutanol, and upgrade that jet fuel to jet fuel. In cases such as Vertimass and Byogy, they start with ethanol as a feedstock — strictly as an offtaker, and upgrade to jet fuel directly from ethanol.
Other routes make jet fuel directly from vegetable oils (as with HEFA fuels), or from syngas (produced, in the case of Fulcrum Bioenergy, by gasifying municipal solid waste).
...
Why ATJ at all?
There are skeptics, for sure.
...
So, what’s changed? Technology, for one.
Vertimass CEO Charles Wyman notes: [In the Vertimass process], the maximum mass yield of hydrocarbon fuels is 28/46 x100 = 60.9%. The volume ratio of ethanol input to hydrocarbon output depends on the mass density of the product vs. ethanol but should be about 1.6 volumes of ethanol/volume of hydrocarbon fuel on average for diesel, gasoline, and jet.
...
Ethanol and jet prices, for another.
Accordingly, the value of the molecule is around $2.68 as corn ethanol, $6.20 as cellulosic ethanol. If California begins accepting jet fuel within its Low Carbon Fuel Standard program (and the values are the same per BTU as cellulosic ethanol), then the value of the jet fuel molecule would be around $5.12.
If jet fuel and ethanol priced the same on a BTU basis (right now, jet is far cheaper, per BTU), then the value of the jet fuel molecule would be $6.60 per gallon — yet the airline pays for the competitively-priced jet fuel molecule.
Now, that’s based on Vertimass ethanol-to-jet ratios — and Vertimass is not a scaled-up, commercially-produced tech. And it’s based on California accepting jet fuel within the LCFS program and for jet and ethanol prices to normalize. None of which may happen. But you get the idea how the Natural Law of Alternative Commodity Markets would not be violated — and still a market for jet fuel might emerge.
Not to mention the possibility that cellulosic ethanol may not easily find a market outside of California due to competition with conventional ethanol, while the total pool is challenged by E10 saturation. So, producers may be looking for viable markets even if cellulosic fuel prices are higher for those gallons.
...
Technologies to watch
More on the Vertimass process, here.
More on Gevo’s ATJ, here.
More on Byogy, here.
More on LanzaTech, here.
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