Webinar: Q2 Biofuels Outlook: Iran War Implications --- May 28, 2026 --- ONLINE Recorded Presentation Available

May 06, 2026

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The Iran War is already reshaping global energy markets. But what could it mean for biofuels? Join ResourceWise’s Matthew Stone, VP of Business Development and Low-Carbon Fuels, for a live Q2 2026 Biofuels Market Update exploring the conflict’s implications for pricing, trade flows, market strategy, and the year ahead.

What You'll Learn:

How the Iran War is affecting global energy market volatility
What the conflict could mean for biofuels pricing and margins
How shifting trade flows may impact supply, demand, and strategy
Why geopolitical disruption matters for renewable diesel, biodiesel, SAF, and feedstocks
What biofuels stakeholders should watch heading into the next quarter

Presenter

Matthew Stone, VP of Business Development and Low-Carbon Fuels, ResourceWise

Matthew Stone, founder of Prima and VP of Business Development at ResourceWise, has specialized in low-carbon transportation fuel markets since 2015. With experience across energy and agricultural commodities since 1998, Mat has established price benchmarks and pioneered research into new energy streams. PRIMA's data and reports are widely used across the energy sector for insights into the renewable energy interface between policy, markets, and fundamentals. READ MORE

Webinar Recap: Biofuels Market Shows Strength Amid Geopolitical Strife

ResourceWise recently held a webinar on the biofuels market amid ongoing uncertainty stemming from the War in Iran. During the webinar, Matthew Stone showcased a somewhat surprising theme across the global markets: strength.

After a period of volatility and uncertainty, global biofuels markets appear to be entering a more sustained phase of strength.

The discussion outlined how policy support, energy security concerns, feedstock constraints, and evolving demand from aviation and maritime markets are shaping the next phase of global biofuels growth.

As Stone put it during the webinar, “We are in a market which we see as having finally hit its stride in the second quarter after a number of false starts.”

For producers, traders, fuel buyers, and policymakers, that shift matters. Biofuels are no longer shaped by a single market driver. Instead, a combination of mandates, geopolitics, feedstock competition, and regional policy design is creating a more complex and challenging market environment.

This blog will explore 6 of Stone's main themes from the webinar and why they matter in the context of market dynamics.

1. Biofuels Markets Are Moving Into a Stronger Phase

The webinar opened with a clear message: biofuels markets have gained momentum.

After several periods of hesitation, delayed policy implementation, and uneven demand growth, the market is now seeing more durable support. Stronger mandates are increasing consumption requirements for businesses. Meanwhile, higher energy prices and concerns over fuel security are reinforcing the role of biofuels in national energy strategies.

This creates a different backdrop than the market faced in recent years. Rather than relying primarily on voluntary decarbonization efforts or isolated policy mechanisms, the demand for biofuels is increasingly supported by broader structural forces.

That does not mean the market is without risk, though.

Feedstock tightness, shifting trade flows, regional policy differences, and price volatility remain major factors to watch. But the overall tone of the webinar was that the market has entered a new phase. It is now characterized less by uncertainty over whether demand will materialize and more by questions about how that demand will be supplied.

2. Policy Is Driving a Major Uplift in Mandated Demand

One of the strongest themes in the webinar was the growing importance of government policy.

Around the world, mandates are becoming a more powerful force in biofuels demand. The discussion highlighted rising requirements in major consuming regions, including:

United States
Europe
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brazil

These policies are increasing the amount of biofuel that must be blended into the fuel pool, thereby tightening the balance between demand and available feedstocks.

Stone described the scale of the shift directly: "We're seeing a massive uplift in aggregate mandated biofuel demand this year that is going to have a huge impact on the global market."

That uplift is significant because mandated demand behaves differently from discretionary demand. When governments set blending requirements, obligated parties must secure supply even when prices rise. This can intensify competition for feedstocks and create price support across the broader low-carbon fuels value chain.

The result is a market where policy influences demand not just at the margins. In many cases, it is becoming the primary force shaping buying behavior, pricing dynamics, and investment decisions.

3. Energy Security Is Reinforcing Support for Biofuels

While decarbonization remains a core driver for biofuels policy, the webinar emphasized that energy security is becoming increasingly important.

Recent geopolitical tensions and concerns over fossil fuel supply have encouraged governments to reconsider their reliance on imported diesel and other petroleum products. In that environment, biofuels offer a solution in several ways:

To diversify the fuel mix
To strengthen domestic and/or regional supply chains
To reduce exposure to global fossil fuel disruptions

As Stone noted, more governments are taking the view that they “don’t want to put all their eggs in one basket” when it comes to fuel supply.

This marks an important shift in the political logic around biofuels. Policies that were once framed primarily around emissions reduction are now also being viewed through the lens of resilience, supply security, and strategic independence.

That broader rationale may make biofuels mandates more durable. When policy support is tied to both climate goals and energy security priorities, governments may have greater incentive to maintain or expand mandates. And this holds true even when markets are under pressure.

4. Feedstock Availability Is Becoming a Central Constraint

As mandated demand rises, feedstock availability is becoming one of the most important constraints in the market.

The webinar discussed tightening supply for key low-carbon feedstocks, including animal fats and used cooking oil. In the US, higher renewable fuel requirements, tax credit design, and tariff structures have increased the preference for domestic feedstocks. That has pushed US feedstock prices sharply higher and created large premiums relative to international markets.

Stone pointed to prices for animal fats and UCO reaching levels that “seemed unimaginable this time last year.”

This feedstock pressure has implications across the biofuels value chain. Producers must compete more aggressively for supply, buyers must navigate higher input costs, and trade flows can shift quickly as price spreads open or close between regions.

It also raises a key question for the next phase of market growth. Can feedstock supply keep pace with policy-driven demand?

If mandates continue rising faster than available feedstock supply, the market may see more volatility, stronger regional premiums, and increased interest in alternative feedstocks and new production pathways. This could carve out space for emerging feedstock solutions such as forest waste.

5. Regional Policy Differences Are Fragmenting Global Trade

Another important theme from the webinar was the growing fragmentation of global biofuels markets.

Although biofuels are traded internationally, regional policy frameworks increasingly determine which feedstocks and fuels are most valuable in each market. These frameworks are guided by a number of factors:

Tax Credits
Tariffs
Sustainability Requirements
Anti-dumping Measures
Feedstock Eligibility Rules

In the US, policy has favored domestic feedstocks for the domestic biofuel pool. In Europe, sustainability rules and import restrictions shape which fuels and feedstocks can enter the market. In Latin America and Southeast Asia, rising mandates and domestic production priorities are changing regional supply and demand balances.

This means global biofuels markets are becoming less uniform. A feedstock that is highly attractive in one region may be less valuable in another because of carbon intensity rules, eligibility requirements, trade barriers, and even general availability.

Brazil was highlighted as one market to watch closely. Stone described the country as "a biodiesel superpower of the future," reflecting its growing relevance to global biodiesel supply and trade.

For market participants, this regional fragmentation makes targeted biofuel market intelligence more important. Understanding global supply is no longer enough; companies also need to understand how local rules, incentives, and trade policies affect market access and value.

6. SAF and Maritime Demand Remain Important Growth Areas

The webinar also addressed demand from sustainable aviation fuel and maritime markets.

Sustainable aviation fuel remains one of the most closely watched areas of low-carbon fuel demand, particularly in Europe where compliance obligations and policy support are driving interest. Strong SAF pricing reflects both the value of compliance and the ongoing challenge of scaling supply.

Maritime markets are also evolving. As shipping companies face pressure to reduce emissions, biofuels and other low-carbon alternatives are gaining attention as practical near-term solutions.

Both sectors remain complex despite this growth. SAF faces production, feedstock, certification, and cost challenges. Maritime demand is still developing and can be sensitive to price movements. Nevertheless, aviation and shipping are likely to remain important long-term demand centers as companies and regulators look for ways to reduce emissions in hard-to-abate sectors.

What This Means for the Biofuels Market Outlook

Taken together, the webinar’s key themes point to a biofuels market that is increasingly policy-driven and becoming more regionally complex.

Mandates are increasing demand. Energy security concerns are strengthening political support. Feedstock constraints are tightening supply. Regional policies are reshaping trade flows. And emerging demand from the aviation and maritime sectors is adding new layers of competition.

For companies operating in this space, the challenge is not simply tracking whether biofuels demand is growing. It is understanding where that growth is occurring, which feedstocks are eligible, how regional incentives are changing, and where supply constraints may create risk or opportunity.

In short, the market has serious momentum, but it's bringing new complexity alongside it. READ MORE/WATCH recorded presentation

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