US ELECTIONS: Results Show Deeper Divide on Energy Issues, Tough Path for Tackling Climate

November 05, 2020

Print This Article Share it With Friends

by Meghan Gordon, Jasmin Melvin and Maya Weber (S&P Global Platts) Lack of 'blue wave' to sweep in climate agenda; Fracking faceoff amplifies rural-urban divide; Status quo embraced in governor, state house races -- ... "Energy remains a powerful wedge in an increasingly divided America," said Katie Bays, managing director of FiscalNote Markets.

Even if Democratic nominee Joe Biden ultimately secures the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, the state and local results showed a lack of a Democratic "blue wave to easily sweep in national US climate policy," said Amy Myers Jaffe, research professor and managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University's Fletcher School.

Jaffe pointed to Florida and Texas as two states hard-hit by recent severe weather events that nevertheless reaffirmed support for Republicans, who oppose climate legislation.

In statewide ballot measures, Texas voters rejected tougher limits on natural gas flaring, New Mexicans revamped utility oversight, Nevada voters appeared set to adopt a 50% renewable power mandate by 2030, and Louisiana voters tied oil and gas wells' property taxes to production.

...

"Historically, the US Senate has been the key obstacle for comprehensive climate legislation, and the results from [the Nov. 3] elections suggest that this dynamic may not change," said Jeff Berman, S&P Global Platts Analytics' director of emissions and clean energy analytics. "At the same time, Platts Analytics expects that a potential Biden administration would use existing executive and regulatory authority to implement more ambitious climate policies than what we've seen under the Trump Administration."

According to Berman, that could include initiatives like implementing more stringent fuel economy standards for vehicles. "However, it would also include a return to using higher Social Cost of Carbon values that ultimately justify federal action, as well as considering climate action in future [National Environmental Policy Act] reviews."

...

Democrats were able to flip one seat in the US Senate early on, with former two-term Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, who backed regulations seen as favorable by the oil and gas industry as well as environmental groups, defeating incumbent first-term Republican Senator Cory Gardner.

Colorado, an oil and gas-producing state, has grown increasingly concerned with climate change. While state oil output grew under Hickenlooper's two terms as governor, he has taken a strong stance on the need to advance efforts to combat climate change. The newly elected senator has backed climate initiatives that include addressing methane emissions, introducing a carbon tax and revisiting the social cost of carbon, which was revised downward by the Trump administration. READ MORE

DigestConnect #32 – Elections. It’s our 2020 election special. What are the issues and opportunities for the bioeconomy as it builds a policy consensus upon which to continue and expand the largest industrial transformation in the history of the world. Tax credits, the RFS, a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard, R&D priorities at the federal level, a shift from first-generation to advanced biofuels and chemicals. Who will be in charge and what will the agenda be? We’re joined by the president of the Advanced Biofuels Association, Michael McAdams. WATCH VIDEO

Climate lobbying blitz would follow Biden to White House (E&E News)

Still, the poor Democratic prospects in the Senate suggest greens failed (Politico's Morning Energy)

DECISION 2020: The US Elections and the bioeconomy impact, a Digest special report (Biofuels Digest)

House Democrats assigned blame over their election losses, and many are pointing at progressives as a top target. (Politico's Morning Energy)

Reporter’s Notebook: Did oil doom Biden in Texas? (Houston Chronicle)

How Biden aims to amp up the government’s fight against climate change (Washington Post)

Keeping The Faith on Biden’s Climate Action (Our Daily Planet)

Climate Change in A Divided Government (Our Daily Planet)

The Green New Deal Didn't Sink Democrats (Earther Gizmodo)

How a Biden Administration Can Roll Up Its Sleeves on Climate Action (Our Daily Planet)

Food Emissions are the Dark Horse of Climate Change, New Report Shows (Our Daily Planet)

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: Still, the poor Democratic prospects in the Senate suggest greens failed to secure the sweeping climate mandate advocates had hoped for. "What you've got here is a Republican Senate [that] came through last night very strong and a Republican pickup in the House," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Wednesday on CNBC. "So that tells me you're not going to get some of these crazy left-wing proposals, you're not going to get across the board tax hikes, you're not going to get the end of natural gas fracking, for example, or the end of low-cost electricity, or the end of energy independence."

"On the major issues — tax packages, energy, climate change — we will see more modest attempts, in my judgment, at negotiated compromises because that's what an institutionalist like Joe Biden knows, that's all he can get," said Scott Segal, the co-chairman of Bracewell's policy resolution group, during a webinar Wednesday morning.

...

GOP SENATE WOULD SCRAMBLE BIDEN'S TRADE AGENDA: Trade veterans say a Republican-controlled Senate could also put a damper on some of Biden's more ambitious trade proposals, like deals that include stronger climate provisions or tariffs on carbon-intensive goods.

There's not "any appetite" for climate provisions among Republican members of the Senate Finance Committee, said former Trump trade adviser Clete Willems. Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo is expected to lead the panel if the GOP holds the chamber.

Expect progressives to push the climate issue and border adjustment tariffs for carbon, said former Clinton trade official Bill Reinsch, arguing that stronger environmental protections will protect U.S. industry from overseas competition.

...

NOMINATION WATCH — ME'S TWO CENTS: If Republicans hold on to the Senate, it could change the calculus around Cabinet nominations if Biden wins, potentially pushing the Democrat to go for safer choices who will be easier to get through the Senate than more contentious figures. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: "No one should say 'defund the police' ever again," Spanberger (Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger) said on the call, according to two sources. "Nobody should be talking about socialism." She also said that if Democrats kept up their tactics in 2022: "We will get f------ torn apart."

Biden not amused: Anger at progressives was also evident in Biden's camp, according to a source familiar with transition team talks. Calls from some progressive groups to ban fracking — never a Biden position — provided fodder for Republican ads in Pennsylvania and may have cost votes in a razor-thin race. There's also tension about what the source described as some progressives' attitude that they would use Biden to defeat Trump but then politically dump Biden. "There's a lot of anger at the progressives," the source said.

On the caucus call Thursday, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, defended liberal ideas, saying that's what keeps the Democratic base motivated to turn out and vote, Heather and Sarah report. "If we don't keep these folks engaged … we will lose again in 2024, and we may lose again in the next midterm," Jayapal told Democrats on the call, according to two people who dialed in.

Overheated? Tensions could resolve if Biden is declared triumphant. But there's already hints of further disputes given that the Senate looks likely to remains in GOP hands. Moderate Democrats are saying this will require legislative RBIs — green energy projects being included in an infrastructure package, for example — rather than the home runs that progressives are seeking with major climate change initiatives. Most immediately, watch for possible pushback over whom Biden picks for key energy posts.

...

Varshini Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, said young and climate voters helped Biden get over the top and that he should feel comfortable pushing the table on the issue. "We're seeing that Joe Biden has a climate mandate and we expect him to do everything in his power to act on climate change over the next weeks and months," she said. READ MORE