US Can Reach 100% Clean Power by 2035, DOE Finds, but Tough Reliability and Land Use Questions Lie Ahead

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November 18, 2022
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by Herman K. Trabish (Utility Dive) New aggressive planning is needed to identify the long-duration storage technologies and find the land to grow enough resources to reach Biden net zero emissions goals, a DOE national lab reports. -- Four major viable paths to a net zero emissions “clean electricity” power system by 2035 “in which benefits exceed costs” are detailed in an August study by the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, or NREL.

But it does not explain how adequate land to reach a 90% clean electricity penetration can be acquired or how reliability will be protected beyond that 90% penetration, stakeholders acknowledged.

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But resolving the continuing local opposition to building new infrastructure will require smarter planning, environmentalists said. 

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The four paths to a 100% clean power sector by 2035, even with 66% higher demand from transportation and building electrification, can lead to a net zero emissions economy by 2050, the NREL study said.

One path assumes “improved cost and performance” of all zero emissions technologies, including carbon capture, NREL reported. Another assumes more transmission capacity from “improved transmission technologies” and “new permitting and siting approaches,” a third assumes higher costs from generation and transmission constraints, and the last assumes limited carbon capture.

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Nuclear is likely to be 9% to 12% of generation in 2035 under three of NREL’s scenarios but could more than double to 27% with siting and permitting constraints on generation and transmission, models found. But that is unlikely because the cost-effectiveness of investments in wind, solar, storage and transmission is “clearly” better than that of new nuclear, NREL’s Denholm said.

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Between 1,400 miles and 10,100 miles of new high voltage transmission will be needed annually to achieve net zero power sector emissions in 2035, reaching “1.3 times to 2.9 times current capacity,” NREL estimated.

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Access to adequate land is a more immediate concern creating uncertainty about meeting the 2035 net zero emissions power sector goal, stakeholders agreed.

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Planning for land


The 2035 goals could require new generation at “three to six times” recent growth rates, new rights-of-way for “doubling or tripling” transmission, and “new pipelines and storage for hydrogen and CO2,” DOE found.

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And the still uncompleted stakeholder process at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to reform transmission planning includes proposals to streamline permitting. But neither get at the innovative reforms really needed, stakeholders said.

Smart planning can protect “sensitive natural areas and working lands” and reach economy-wide net zero emissions cost-effectively by 2050, TNC’s Power of Place – West study agreed.

Without improved planning, the 2050 goal would require “up to 39 million acres” in the 11 studied states for new generation and transmission infrastructure and cost $260 billion, TNC’s modeling found.

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But TNC’s approach may be “an optimistic outlook,” and underestimate the “intense opposition” in local communities to new infrastructure buildouts, the Los Angeles Times observed October 6. 

“Local community opposition is real and will likely continue to make siting and permitting a challenge,” but might be addressable, said University of Notre Dame Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy Emily Grubert, who has worked with federal agencies on related issues.

To earn a community’s trust, development proposals “should explain why a project is needed, why the community’s resources are needed, and how the community can benefit,” Grubert said. They should also “assure the community its concerns have been heard and it will be protected,” she added.

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“No project should go ahead without a Community Benefit Agreement to assure real benefits for the host community,” agreed NRDC’s Greene. But in many places, “political polarization has turned reasonable project development questions into obstructive, misinformation campaigns,” Greene said. “Overcoming that will take a lot of work,” he added.

“People, especially in smaller communities, can get very passionate, and even exchange death threats, which shows how important and undervalued trust is,” Grubert agreed.  READ MORE

Related articles


Excerpt from NRDC: If new solar, wind, and storage resources can’t get connected, the transition to clean energy will slow, states will fail to meet their climate targets, and everyone will pay more than they need to for power. READ MORE

 
Excerpt from Inside Climate News:  While there is agreement that rural resistance to wind and solar is an impediment to development, experts disagree about whether it’s a good idea to deal with this opposition by yanking power away from local officials.

“I think, in the short term, (the Illinois law) will get a whole lot of wind and solar built,” said Sarah Mills of the University of Michigan, who writes about land use conflicts over renewable energy development.

But she has concerns that the benefits may end up being smaller than the harm that comes from the way the law solidifies the idea that urban areas are imposing renewable energy on rural areas.

“This is not the way you build bridges between urban and rural areas,” she said. “It’s making that chasm even wider.”

...

Sarah Fox, a Northern Illinois University law professor, said there is a growing awareness that local control of development can be harmful if the result is a shutdown in new construction due to pressure from local residents.

“It has become so clear that if we are serious about decarbonization, then the scale on which we need to be adopting renewable energy is vast,” she said.

Her legal work includes representing property owners in Piatt County, located in central Illinois, who have leased their property for Goose Creek Wind Farm, a 300-megawatt proposal. County officials in January approved a moratorium on wind farm applications, but that doesn’t include the application for Goose Creek, which is still pending.

Fox said the existential threat of climate change means that the regulatory system needs to err on the side of allowing renewable energy development, even if that means reducing local control.

Battles to Build Renewable Projects Can Be ‘Really Ugly’

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Kevin Semlow, the Farm Bureau’s director of state legislation, said his larger concern isn’t about the loss of local control; it’s about how the law seems to occupy an uncomfortable middle ground between local and state control, with counties remaining in charge but severely limited in what they can do.

“Since you’re basically having a statewide system, why don’t you have a statewide agency that would be over it, so there’s just more cohesiveness and uniformity?” he asked.

...

New York’s law was adopted in 2020 through provisions inserted into state budget legislation. The law set up a new state office to accelerate the process of building utility-scale wind and solar projects, with power that supersedes local regulations.

California passed its law in 2022, giving the California Energy Commission enhanced authority to issue permits for large clean energy projects.

Now that Illinois has joined the two coastal states in limiting local control, advocates have asked which state is likely to be next. Mills of the University of Michigan said she has heard of efforts to promote similar legislation in Indiana and Michigan.

But neither state seems likely to pass something, at least not in the near future.

Indiana lawmakers tried in 2021 to pass a bill that would have set statewide rules about wind farm applications, taking power away from local governments, some of which had enacted bans.   READ MORE

 

Excerpt from Power Switch: In the meantime, the transmission clock is ticking. Abe Silverman, who studies barriers to clean energy growth at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the worst-case scenario is that adding the study into the debt ceiling deal delays any real action.

“We need thousands of miles of new transmission by the early 2030s. That’s going to take at least five years to permit and at least another five years to build,” he told Nidhi. “So we’re in 2025 before we even get started.”  READ MORE

 

Excerpt from Power Switch: FERC first raised concerns about the then-emerging grid queue in 2007, citing an already large number of zero-carbon energy projects seeking to connect to the U.S. electricity network.

More than 15 years later, the agency is still grappling with the issue — except now, the problem is worse, and the stakes are higher, Miranda writes.

Over 2,000 gigawatts of solar, wind and battery storage projects are waiting to connect, according to the Energy Department. That’s more power than the country’s current generating capacity, and more than six times larger than the bottleneck was in 2014. READ MORE

 

Excerpt from Power Switch: Transmission lines that are powerful and big enough to transport energy from solar fields and wind farms to urban centers often cross federal, state, county and private land, necessitating approval from the government at each level. That can take years, to say nothing of cost.

But meeting President Joe Biden’s goal of reaching net-zero power sector emissions by 2035 would require the country to grow its high-voltage transmission network by more than 50 percent, according to the Energy Department.

...

A Democratic proposal to upgrade transmission lines didn’t make it into last month’s debt ceiling proposal. Republicans instead agreed to a study on the issue.

If the U.S. is unable to quickly build transmission, the nation’s clean-energy backlog will likely continue to grow. Over 2,000 gigawatts of solar, wind and battery storage projects are waiting to connect. That’s more power than the country’s current generating capacity, and more than six times larger than the bottleneck was in 2014.  READ MORE

 

Excerpt from E&E News: “It just shows you that these companies are not fundamentally allied with the climate movement, not fundamentally on the side of climate progress,” said Leah Stokes, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who has studied utility opposition to climate policy. “They are just monopolies who sit on the bridge like a troll and try to protect their own profits.”

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NextEra’s national fleet of wind and solar farms generate more renewable electricity than any other company in the country. It built the largest utility-scale solar project in New England, a 77-megawatt facility in Maine with enough power to supply about 15,000 homes. And its executives have been vocal about climate action, praising passage of President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and calling for increased cooperation among companies and governments during climate talks last year in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

But the company also has a history of defending its turf against other clean energy initiatives at a time of record-high global temperatures. NextEra’s campaign in New England echoes its fight against rooftop solar incentives in Florida, where it operates the country’s largest utility.

In New England, the power line, called New England Clean Energy Connect, represents potential competition for NextEra’s fleet of power plants.

Battles fought, battles lost

The transmission line would run 145 miles through Maine, from the Canadian border to a substation in the southern part of the state, where it would inject power generated by dams in Quebec into New England’s electric system.

The project has divided environmentalists by pitting those who say it’s needed to back up wind and solar versus those who worry about the ecological impact of sawing down trees and damming rivers.

But nowhere has the fight been more intense than between power companies.

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Stop the Corridor arranged for opponents to attend municipal meetings, sought to shape public opinion through advertising, and worked with other groups to draft comments to state and federal agencies, the ethics commission said.

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The consent agreement names the Natural Resources Council of Maine and the Sierra Club as groups that worked alongside Stop the Corridor to oppose the project. The Sierra Club felt the region should be focused on building domestic renewables rather than supporting Canadian hydropower to meet its climate goals, said Matt Cannon, who leads the Sierra Club’s conservation and energy program in Maine.

“We did not feel like they had enough data to support the claim that it was clean energy,” Cannon said.

Asked if the Sierra Club had coordinated with NextEra, Cannon said, “Absolutely not.”

A spokesperson for the Natural Resources Council of Maine did not respond to requests for comment.   READ MORE

 

Excerpt from Environmental Law and Policy Center: Today (March 6, 2024), three state and national conservation groups filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,  the U.S. Rural Utilities Service, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for violating federal laws by approving a land exchange that will allow Transmission Companies to bulldoze and construct a high-voltage transmission line to run through and across the protected Upper Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge. The Environmental Law & Policy Center, pro bono public interest attorneys, represent the Driftless Area Land Conservancy, Wisconsin Wildlife Federation, and National Wildlife Refuge Association in this lawsuit. The Cardinal-Hickory Creek transmission line’s proposed route would cut across the protected Refuge near Cassville, Wisconsin.

The lawsuit challenges the Federal Defendant agencies’ violations of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA), the National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997, and the Administrative Procedure Act. If built in the planned location, the east-west transmission line would cut across a major north-south migratory bird flyway used by hundreds of thousands of birds annually, including migratory waterfowl such as cranes. Eagles also use that important flyway.  READ MORE

 

Excerpt from Inside Climate News:  But getting more clean energy to where it’s needed isn’t just a matter of building more facilities to generate it—it also requires new transmission lines to distribute the electricity, and as the RMI study found, potentially sell the excess to the highest bidder.

Transmission lines are the backbone of the grid, acting as highways that connect the source of electricity to where it is used. With remote solar and wind farms developing over vast expanses far from existing transmission infrastructure, building new lines is critical to the nation’s transition away from fossil fuels, and one of the biggest obstacles to the adoption of more clean energy in the U.S., especially in the West, where interstate lines need to cross vast stretches of federal, state, municipal, tribal and private lands, and can often run into the challenging permitting processes and pushback from those living along a project’s route.

As fossil fuel plants go offline, space opens up on transmission lines for renewables. But that won’t satisfy growing electricity demand, such as from AI data centers and charging stations for electric vehicles, or connect renewable energy projects that are being built in places where transmission lines don’t yet exist.

RMI’s study comes on the heels of an analysis from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that found nationwide nearly 12,000 projects—94 percent of which are zero carbon—awaiting approval to be able to access the grid. Those represent 1,570 gigawatts of generating capacity, about double the total amount of energy currently being produced in the U.S., and 1,030 GW of storage that can release electricity to the grid when intermittent sources like wind and solar aren’t producing because the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. That’s up from a backlog of about 10,000 projects from 2022, and wait times have increased, approaching five years to receive the go-ahead. One gigawatt is enough power for about 750,000 homes.

Integrating new energy sources into the grid isn’t like plugging them into an outlet, said Joseph Rand, an energy policy researcher with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Each proposed project in what’s known as the interconnection queue needs to be reviewed by those who operate transmission lines to assess what’s needed to transmit the energy, the costs and who pays them, and any impacts connecting it may have.

For years, there was little development of new energy projects. Climate change, policy decisions and growing demand for power have changed that, resulting in a 90 percent increase in the generating capacity of proposed electricity generation projects over the last three years, the report found. “That’s really put the spotlight back on the queue,” Rand said.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Committee has adopted new rules to speed up the queue process that are expected to be implemented in the coming months, including approving projects by a first-ready-first-served process that studies clusters of them at the same time and establishing hard deadlines for utilities in charge of transmission lines to approve projects and imposing penalties for not meeting them.  

“That’s going to change this process,” Rand said, “but it doesn’t build the transmission,” which is what’s really needed to get more renewable energy projects on the grid. 

Building that transmission infrastructure, however, is easier said than done. That’s especially true for projects that stretch across state lines in the Western U.S., where projects can undergo long permitting processes to comply with environmental and public land policies. They’re also extremely costly, with one being constructed through New Mexico and Arizona for $11 billion, being the most expensive renewable energy project in U.S. history.   READ MORE

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Farm Bureau farm equipment farm policy Farm to Fleet Farm to Fly farmers farming farnesane farnesene Fats fecal sludge Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) federal land Federal Railroad Administration Federal Reserve Bank Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Federal Transit Administration (FTA) feed Feed In Tariffs (FIT) feed prices Feedstock Flexibility Program for Bioenergy Producers feedstock logistics feedstock material feedstock prices feedstock storage feedstock terminal feedstock transportation Feedstocks fermentation ferry fertilizer fiber Fiji Financing Finland Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SKA) Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK) Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SPK/A) Fischer-Tropsch/FT fish feed fish oil fish waste fit for purpose Fixed Base Operator (FBO) flameleaf sumac flavors flax fleet turnover Fleets fleshings flex-fuel vehicles (FFV) flight tests Flightpath flixweed/tansy/herb-Sophia flood-prone soil Florida flue gas FOG (Fats/Oils/Grease) follow-the-crop food Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) food and fuel food policy food prices food processing waste food safety food security food vs biomaterials/bioplastics food vs fuel food waste for forage forage sorghum forecasts foreign oil Foreign Policy forest Forest Biomass for Energy forest biotechnology forest residue/waste Forest resources Forest Service forestry forklifts Formate fossil carbon fossil fuel Frace fracking fractionation fragrance France franchise fraud free fatty acids (FFA) Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) freight/cargo French French Guiana fructose fruit FT-SKA fuel fuel additives fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) fuel cells fuel economy fuel efficiency fuel injection fuel mixtures fuel molecules fuel oil fuel performance fuel prices Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) fuel registration Fuel Retailers fuel testing fuel transportation fuel use fuel wholesaler fully burdened cost fund funding fungus/fungi Furanics furfural fusel oils Future Farmers of America (FFA) Gabon gallium Gambia games gas prices gas tax/highway user fee gas-to-liquid (GTL) gasification gasoline gasoline baseline gasoline consumption gasoline mandate gasoline markets gasoline price gasoline-range hydrocarbons Gemany General Services Administration general waiver authority generators genetically engineered yeast cells genetically enhanced microbes genetically modified organism (GMO) genome Georgia Georgia (country) geothermal German Germany Gerrmany Ghana GHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) giant cane giant kelp Giant King Grass Giant Reed/Arundo GIS glass tubing gliricidia sepium global rebound effect Global South global warming global warming potential glucose glycerin glycerin standards glycerol goats gorse Governance practices) Government Accountability Office (GAO) government investment government resources government subsidies grain sorghum/milo grain speculators grains GRAND-AM grants grants-local grants-state grapefruit grapes graphene graphite GRAS (generally regarded as safe) Grasses grasses grasshoppers grease Great Green Fleet Great Lakes Greece green bonds green chemistry Green Deal EU green economy green house facility Green Jobs Green New Deal Green Racing Green Recovery green/black economy Greenland GREET Greenhouse Gases Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation Model Grenada gribble growers gua beans Guam guar Guatemala guayule Guerbet reaction Guinea Guinea Bissau Gulf states gulmohar Gumweed (grindelia squarosa) Guyana GWP gypsum h Haiti Halophytes harvest site processing harvesting Hawai'i hay hazardous waste hazelnut HBIIP Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program HDCJ HDO-SAK (hydro deoxygenated synthetic aromatic kerosene) health health benefits health effects heat of combustion heat of vaporization heat-tolerance heather heating oil/fuel Heavy Duty Truck Rule heavy duty vehicles (HDV) hedging HEFA (Hydro-processed esters and fatty acids) HEFA50 helicopters hemicellulace enzymes hemicellulose hemicellulosic sugars Hemp hemp oil hemp seed herb hexanol HFO (Heavy Residual Fuel Oil) hibiscus high blend renewable fuels (HBRF) High Hydrogen Content Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (HHC-SPK) High Octane Fuel (HOF) High Octane Fuel Standard High Octane Gasoline (HOG) high octane low carbon (HOLC) fuel High Octane Vehicles (HOV) high performance regular high school project high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) high-octane/low-carbon (HOLC) liquid fuels Highway Bill highway rights-of-way Highway Trust Fund history hog farmers hombayniya homogeneous-charge compression-ignition Honduras honey locust Hong Kong Honge tree nuts hops horticulture Housing and Urban Development (HUD) HPF (High Performance Fuels) HRJ (Hydrotreated Renewable Jet) human rights Hungary Hurricane Sandy HVO (Hydrotreated vegetable oil) HVO100 HVO20 HVO30 Hybrid aircraft hybrid buses hybrid locomotive hybrid ships hybrids hydrocarbon fuels Hydrocarbon-Hydroprocesed Esters and Fatty Acids (HC-HEFA-SPK) hydrodeoxygenation hydrodiesel hydrofaction hydroformylation hydrogen aircraft hydrogen carrier hydrogen combustion engines hydrogen fuel cells hydrogen leaks hydrogen pipeline hydrogen price hydrogen pumps/fueling stations hydrogen tax credit hydrogen terminal Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen Price hydrogenase hydrogenation hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel (HDRD) hydrogenolysis hydropower Hydroprocessed fermented sugars to synthetic isoparaffins (HFS-SIP) hydroprocessing hydropyrolysis hydrothermal carbonization hydrothermal gasification hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) hydrothermal treatment Hydrotreated renewable diesel (HRD) hydrotreating hydrotreatment hydrous ethanol hypoxia zone Iceland Idaho Illinois Illiois illuppai ILUC (Indirect/Induced Land Use Change) import/export incinerator ash India Indian beech tree Indian grass Indiana indirect effects indirect emissions indirect fuel use change indium Indonesia industrial burners industrial ethanol industrial gases industrial sugars industrial waste industrial waste gases IndyCar infographic Infrastructure inhibitors innovation insecticide/pesticide insects insurance integrated biorefineries integrated food/energy systems intellectual property Inter-American Development Bank inter-crop interactive map intercropping internal combustion engine internal combustion engine/gasoline engine ban International international balance of payments International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Organization for Standardization (ISO) International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) International Sustainability and Carbon Certification model(ISCC) International Trade 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Louis Louisiana low c low carbon emissions low carbon octane standard (LCOS) Low Emission Vehicle Standards (LEV) low sulfur diesel low sulfur fuel low sulfur marine fuel lubricants lumber mill Luxembourg lysis M100 M15 M3 M50 ma macadamia macauba Macedonia machine learning machinery macororo Madagascar magnesium mahua Maine Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali mallees Malta Malyasia mamona management changes mandates mangaba manganese mango mangrove Manitoba mannose manure maple maps marginal land marine algae Marine Corps Marine Diesel Oil (MDO) Marine Fuel Oil Marine Gas Oil (MGO) Marine/Maritime Bio and Renewable/Sustainable Fuel (SMF) Marine/Maritime Bio and Renewable/Sustainable Fuel (SMF) price Marine/Maritime Bio and Renewable/Sustainable Fuel Terminal Marine/maritime renewable fuel terminal/bunkering market forces market share marketing markets/sales Mars Marshall Islands Maryland Masdar Institute mass balance standard Massachusetts Master Limited Partnership (MLP) Mauritania 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morula motorcycles motors MOVES (motor vehicle emissions simulator) modeling system MOVES2014 MOVES3 (MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator model) Mozambique MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) MTBE (Methyl tert-butyl ether) multi-fuel municipal/city mushroom mushroom substrate mustard seed mvr Myanmar n-butanol n-butene nahar Namibia nano nano particles nanocatalysts nanocellulose nanomaterials naphtha/bionaphtha/renewable naphtha naphthene NASCAR National Academies of Science National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Environmental Policy Act National Guard National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Institutes of Health (NIH) National Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Oilheat Research Alliance National Park Service National Research Council National Science Foundation (NSF) national security National Security Council National Transportation Safety Board National 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nutrition oak oat hulls oat straw oats Obligated Parties/Point of Obligation (PoO) ocean-based energy Oceania octane octane price/value octanol Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Office of Science and Technology Policy Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Office of Science Technology and Policy (OSTP) Offices of Inspector Generals offtake agreements Ohio oil oil embargo oil exploration oil monopoly oil p oil price parity oil prices oil production oil refineries oil replacement oil sands oil seed oil seed crops oil speculators oil spill oil subsidies oil taxes oil/gas terminals Oils Oklahoma olefins oligomerization olive cake olive oil olive pits olive water olives Oman Omega-3s on-farm algae production on-farm ammonia production on-farm biodiesel on-farm ethanol production on-farm natural gas production on-farm processing on-site hydrogen production one p one pound waiver onion waste online courses Ontaio Ontario OPEC 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