UK Refiners Push Back over 2030 Ban on New Fossil Fuel Cars

by Robert Perkins (S&P Global Platts) Refiners call for more biofuels support; Move seen displacing 60,000 b/d of oil demand; Hybrids get reprieve until 2035, EV sales booming -- The UK's refining sector has voiced its opposition to the UK plans to bring forward a ban on sales of new gasoline and diesel cars to 2030, calling for more policy support for low carbon liquid fuels such as biofuels to help decarbonize the transport sector.

Covering passenger cars and vans, or light commercial vehicles, the widely-anticipated decision maintains a 2035 cut-off for hybrids cars that include battery propulsion alongside conventional engines.

The move brings the UK into line with a number of other European countries including Germany, the region's biggest economy and largest oil market. Sweden, Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands also plan to end sales of new ICE cars in 2030. Norway, Europe's electric car powerhouse, has the most ambitious plan to phase out combustion-engine cars from 2025.

But the UK's refiners said the ban is unnecessary and urged more action to develop biofuels such as sustainable aviation fuel, or biojet as part of a "holistic" plan.

"While internal combustion engines will still be in use for some time to come, it is important to deploy low carbon liquid fuels like biofuels into the fuel mix sooner as they offer significant carbon emissions reductions with today's car fleet," UKPIA Director General Stephen Marcos Jones said.

Europe's long-suffering refiners have been shutting or converting their aging sites to biofuel plants in recent years as overcapacity due to sliding structural demand, competition from the Middle East and Asia and green legislation hammers refining margins.

Platts Analytics estimates that EVs could account for about 20% of the total car parc in the UK by that time, and continue to climb to account for about half of the UK's car parc by 2040, based on estimates of vehicle age, scrappage rates, and current incentives.

The UK is a net exporter of gasoline and a net importer of jet and diesel. Overall, the UK's six oil refineries export about a third of the refined products they produce, some two-thirds of which, or around 15 million mt/year, go to the EU.

The UK first announced a ban on sales of new conventional diesel and gasoline cars from 2040 in 2017 following similar measures by France, in a bid to lower emissions and improve air quality. At the time, the UK said its cut-off for conventional cars and vans would mean gasoline and diesel hybrid vehicles would still be permitted to be sold in 2040.

Prior to the latest announcement, the UK had already seen substantial growth in electric vehicles, achieving a 2.5% market share in 2018, then 3.1% in 2019, and then over 9% in 2020 as total electric vehicle sales eclipsed 100,000 units through the first three quarters of this year.

But pure electric models still accounted for under 5% of total new car registrations in July, according to official figures, slightly lower than the average in Western Europe of about 7%.

In the current Platts Analytics Base Case, EV sales are projected to grow more than five-fold between 2020 and 2030, reaching 850,000 units sold. This is equivalent to a market share of nearly 50% and would translate into an annual displacement of more than 40,000 b/d of refined motor fuels. READ MORE

Excerpt from Ethanol Producer Magazine: The U.K. Renewable Energy Association, however, welcomed the release of the 10 point plan, noting that biofuels will still be a necessary part of the transportation fuel mix. “Renewable transport fuels will play a critical and complementary role to this policy, and will be needed in greater volumes to ensure that we maximize emissions reductions from the millions of petrol and diesel cars and vans already on our roads, not just from new ones,” said Frank Gordon, head of policy at the U.K. REA. READ MORE