U.S. Researchers See Auto Fuel Standards Driving Technology

by David Morgan (Planet Ark) U.S. cars and light trucks will become more fuel efficient and safer -- but also more expensive -- by the end of the next decade, as a result of increasingly stringent environmental standards, a new research report said on Thursday.

The report, released by the National Research Council, said fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards will drive new powertrain designs, alternative fuels, more advanced materials and changes to body vehicle design.

Most gains in fuel consumption will come from improvements to gasoline internal combustion engines, which are expected to dominate automotives through 2025, according to the report, which was sponsored by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. READ MORE and MORE (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) and MORE (The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy)

Excerpt from Bloomberg New Energy Finance: ...Consumers have shown they’re willing to pay more for cars with the safety features and infotainment systems they value, said Michelle Krebs, an analyst with Autotrader.com. Millennials, who will become the largest segment of car buyers over the next decade, will play a huge part in determining whether the fuel economy improvements gain acceptance, she said.

“We have a long way to go until 2025,” Krebs said. “We have another 10 years for developing these technologies and seeing what the costs are, and how these costs get passed down to consumers.”

Roland Hwang, one of the NRC panel members, said that technology costs have actually dropped since the council’s previous review of fuel economy four years ago. A midsize car could meet the 2025 standards with $1,181 to $1,689 in added costs, Hwang said.

The 2011 study estimated $3,200 to meet the standards, said Hwang, director of the transportation program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental advocacy group. That’s consistent with the history of auto regulation, which shows the industry tends to innovate, coming in on time and under budget, Hwang said. READ MORE

ep The committee identified several technologies that were not included in the compliance scenario the agencies developed in setting the standards; for example, high compression ratio engines, electrically assisted superchargers, dedicated exhaust gas recirculation, and ethanol boosted direct injection engines. And it’s a safe bet that other technologies not considered either by the agencies or by the committee will enter the market over the next decade. As the report states, “these unanticipated innovations may permit the industry to meet emission standards at lower than predicted cost.”

Comparing some high-selling 2014 vehicles to their 2008 counterparts, the committee found that the agencies’ estimates of the effectiveness of fuel efficiency technologies were realized, and in some cases exceeded. For example, the package of technologies applied to a Honda Accord achieved a 24% greater reduction in fuel consumption from 2008 to 2014 than the agencies projected would result from that package.

All in all, the NRC report provides strong evidence of the soundness of the CAFE standards out to 2025. The report highlights a few areas that will especially benefit from additional agency scrutiny in the midterm review. It also points to emerging technology opportunities that could reduce the cost of compliance with the 2025 standards, or alternatively allow vehicles to go beyond those standards to reach even higher fuel economy levels. READ MORE