U.S. Ethanol Industry Thriving, RFA Says

by Brent Barnett (Brownfield Ag News) ... Robert White with the Renewable Fuels Association says 2024 could be a record-breaking year for U.S. ethanol. “Record ethanol exports, record ethanol production, record corn grind, and that’s all during a downturn that many would consider in agriculture.”

He tells Brownfield increasing demand needs to be a focus moving forward. “That’s where we come into E15 and E85, but all the other new uses like sustainable aviation fuel, renewable chemicals, and all the other things that we can use ethanol either directly into or use it as a feedstock to make that product.”

White says ethanol could have another big year in 2025 as EV mandates face increased pushback. He spoke to Brownfield at the 2024 Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa. READ MORE; includes AUDIO

Excerpt from Ethanol Producer Magazine: The USDA currently predicts fiscal year (FY) 2025 U.S. ethanol exports will reach $4.3 billion. Export volumes are expected to edge up to a record 2 billion gallons, according the agency’s latest quarterly trade outlook, published Aug. 27.

USDA’s FY 2025 begins Oct. 1, 2024, and ends Sept. 30, 2025. The expected $4.3 billion in FY 2025 ethanol exports is unchanged from the revised FY 2024 forecast. Ethanol export unit value is expected slightly lower following U.S. corn prices, the USDA said in the report.

According to the agency, little change is aggregate sales to top export markets is expected as blending increases in Ontario and Quebec slow, Europe’s ethanol prices moderate further or stabilize, India’s ethanol feedstock supplies recover, and the recovery of Colombia’s blending rates come to and end. Brazil’s 18% import duty on ethanol is expected to keep the arbitrage window closed for U.S. sales.

FY 2024 ethanol exports are raised $300 million from May to a record $4.3 billion, an increase of $800 million over the previous year and $400 million higher than the previous record, which was set in FY 2022. Export volumes for FY 2024 are expected to reach 1.9 billion gallons.

The report indicates that U.S. ethanol is generally more price competitive than Brazilian product, helping to boost global U.S. sales. Canada has become the world’s largest ethanol importer, and the U.S. continues to supply all the country’s ethanol imports, according to the USDA. The U.S. ethanol industry is also the top foreign supplier to the European Union and United Kingdom, which are currently the world’s second and third largest ethanol importers. Other important markets, such as India, Colombia, South Korea, the Philippines, Mexico and Peru, are seeing strong-to-record U.S. sales. The window of arbitrage for U.S. sales to Brazil has remained mostly closed this year due to the 16% duty, which was raised to 18% in January. READ MORE

Excerpt from Energy.AgWired.com: It was a beautiful week in Boone, Iowa for the Farm Progress Show, the nation’s largest outdoor ag show. It is a show that the Renewable Fuels Association always attends because it brings out farmers from all over the ethanol-producing part of the country to see what’s new in the industry.

RFA displayed its custom Flex Fuel Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle and an off-road flex-fuel Can Am and had staff on hand to talk about ethanol issues such as the road to E15, record exports, 45 tax credit progress, and more.

In this edition of the Ethanol Report, Chuck Zimmerman interviews RFA president and CEO Geoff Cooper and RFA Senior VP for Industry Relations & Market Development Robert White from the Farm Progress Show.