Trump’s EPA Chief Thinks Biden’s Climate Rules Are Doomed. But Will Biden’s Dollars Survive?

May 20, 2024

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by Josh Siegel (Politico) ... Former Environmental Protection Agency chief Andrew Wheeler told the POLITICO Energy podcast that he sees key pieces of Biden’s green policies falling quickly if former President Donald Trump wins in November: Courts will strike down Biden’s aggressive pollution limits for coal- and gas-fueled power plants, he predicted. He suspects the auto industry won’t fight to keep regulations pushing a swift transition to electric vehicles, especially in light of EVs’ disappointing sales numbers.

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Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt would not comment on Wheeler specifically, but said in a statement that “on day one, President Trump will reverse Joe Biden’s extreme electric vehicle mandate, unleash American Energy to lower inflation for all Americans, and make America energy independent again.”

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Slashing pollution limits for power plants and vehicles, at the same time that power companies are trying to meet surging demands from energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing plants, is a recipe for a crisis.

“You have the administration’s demands for new electricity for EV cars, and you have regulations that are hamstringing the utility sector on producing new electricity, and they can’t even produce enough to make up the deficit that the regulations cause,” he said.

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On transportation, Wheeler said a second Trump administration would undo Biden’s effort to turbocharge the adoption of electric vehicles by ratcheting down emissions from cars, trucks and SUVs.

That rule has drawn particular ire from Trump on the campaign trail, where he has inaccurately derided it as an “EV mandate.”

EPA has estimated that under its rule, 68 percent of new cars or light trucks sold in 2032 will be electric — surpassing Biden’s goal of 50 percent EV sales by the end of the decade. But Wheeler dismissed the EPA estimate as “more of an aspirational goal than a regulation.”

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“We don’t have the electricity for that regulation. We don’t have the supply chain of materials, the critical minerals for the batteries,” he added. “I don’t think there’s any reasonable person who’s looking at the auto sector and thinks we’re going to be able to have two-thirds of our cars EVs by 2032. It just can’t physically be done.”

While the auto industry has expressed initial support for that Biden rule, Wheeler questioned whether car companies would stand by it if Trump were reelected.

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“They don’t necessarily want to go out and tell their customers or their investors, yes, this needs to be overturned, but they’re looking at the same data that everybody else is looking at — and that the American public is not fully behind EV cars yet,” Wheeler said. READ MORE

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Excerpt from Politico: Two of Washington’s most powerful Republican-leaning industry groups are gearing up to defend President Joe Biden’s climate law if the GOP retakes the White House next year — setting up a potential collision between big business and a future Trump administration.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute largely opposed the Inflation Reduction Act two years ago, when Congress passed it entirely with Democratic votes. Both groups have railed against major aspects of Biden’s climate strategy, especially his efforts to change rules on federal environmental reviews and pause natural gas export approvals.

But the IRA also contains hundreds of billions of dollars in tax breaks and spending that could benefit key members of both powerhouse trade groups — including money for advanced manufacturing of clean energy technologies.

Oil companies in particular have expressed interest in potential business opportunities offered by the climate law, such as projects that would produce hydrogen fuel and capture and store carbon dioxide.

And those are provisions that the big business lobbies would fight to keep. It’s an example of the potential for the administration’s sweeping, $1.6 trillion climate, energy and infrastructure agenda to reshape traditional power alliances in Washington, even as former President Donald Trump hints at a wholesale eradication of Biden’s policies.

“Business is going to defend the Inflation Reduction Act,” said Christopher Guith, senior vice president at the Chamber’s Global Energy Institute, adding that the Inflation Reduction Act is instrumental for “energy security, competitiveness, and the business case for the energy transition.”

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Other industry groups that opposed the IRA at the time of its passage — including the National Association of Manufacturers and the Business Roundtable — did not respond to requests for comment. The National Mining Association declined to comment.

But Maisano predicted that other trade group heavyweights would go to bat for the law. That, he said, was clear at March’s CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, where business leaders made the case that industry will be instrumental in greening the economy.

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Make no mistake, though: If Republicans control Washington next year, conservative lawmakers and activists will push to roll back huge portions of Biden’s climate and energy agenda, including parts of the IRA.

Trump has been especially vocal in trashing Biden’s support for wind power and electric cars, calling them a “green new scam” and “insanity.” He called out the Inflation Reduction Act by name at a rally this month in Wisconsin and promised to enact a “moratorium on all new spending grants and giveaways.”

Already, House Republicans have voted at least 31 times to rescind parts of the law, and GOP hostility toward electric vehicles has become rampant.

What’s more, many of the renewable energy tax credit provisions are considered low-hanging fruit for Republicans to try to claw back as offsets for legislation they would likely aim to craft next year, as Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are expiring.

Still, some Republicans are supporting parts of the law that they like. In March, the House rejected an amendment that would have placed restrictions on certain IRA subsidies after an intense lobbying push from renewable energy and utility groups. Two industry groups, the American Clean Power Association and the Edison Electric Institute, lobbied heavily to defeat the amendment.

Former Trump-era Environmental Protection Agency chief Andrew Wheeler told the POLITICO Energy podcast that some tax incentives that fossil fuel companies favor in the IRA and infrastructure law, like carbon capture, could survive. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico: Presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump delivered a campaign-style energy address during a day of meetings with congressional Republicans on Thursday (June 13, 2024), hitting on trademark themes like “drill baby drill” and pledging to reverse Biden administration policies he said hamper fossil fuel development and favor electric vehicles.

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Trump also criticized government mandates toward the purchase of electric vehicles during Thursday’s address to GOP senators, echoing an often-repeated line on the campaign trail. READ MORE

Excerpt from SAF Magazine: It’s a pivotal year for the nation’s energy economy, with what’s tracking to be a very close election just a couple of months away. While there are varying views of what might ensue under a Trump Administration, some of opinions I’ve read and listened to believe sustainable aviation fuel will fare just fine. This is partly given Trump’s previous track record of support for farmers and agriculture, but mainly that the most SAF-relevant parts of the Biden administration's landmark Inflation Reduction Act (tax credits) are likely to be safe from dismantling, particularly because many Republican-led districts are benefitting from the IRA. In fact, according to a new report by E2, more than 60% of all IRA-fueled projects over the past two years are in Republican districts (North Carolina's 9th district leads for clean energy investments with nearly $9.9 billion, followed by Georgia's 11th congressional district at $6.6 billion). On top of that, some predictions suggest that a Trump victory may even result in more relaxed standards/regulations, which could potentially accelerate ethanol projects’ qualification for 45Z credits. Despite all the speculation, we still have about three months to go until Election Day, and we’ll be ready to cover it as it all unfolds. READ MORE