To Limit Warming, Most Fossil Fuel Must Remain Untapped: Study

by Rachel Frazin (The Hill) The majority of the planet’s oil, gas and coal must remain in the ground to provide just a 50 percent chance of limiting the amount the Earth has warmed to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new study.

The study, published in the journal Nature, found that 58 percent of the planet's oil, 59 percent of its gas, and 89 percent of its coal as of 2018 needed to remain unextracted in the year 2050 to provide a chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

It said that this means that many parts of the world will need to reach peak fossil fuel production soon and shouldn't start new fossil fuel projects.

The scenario pitched in the study would have U.S. oil production grow until 2025 and then decline after that.

It said that for the U.S., gas should have peaked last year and should decline by about 8.1 percent per year to avoid more dramatic warming.

The study follows a recent United Nations report that predicted that the world will reach 1.5 degrees of warming compared to preindustrial levels sometime this century but could bounce back to less than that by the end of the century if the world reaches net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century. READ MORE

Excerpt from Climatewire: The majority of the planet’s fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground if the world wants even half a chance — literally — at meeting its most ambitious climate targets.

A new study published yesterday in the journal Nature found that 60 percent of oil and natural gas, and a whopping 90 percent of coal, must remain unextracted and unused between now and 2050 in order for the world to have at least a 50 percent shot at limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

These results are broadly consistent with the findings of numerous recent reports, from the United Nations, the International Energy Agency and others, which have “all provided evidence that dramatic cuts in fossil fuel production are required immediately in order to move towards limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees,” said Dan Welsby, a researcher at University College London and lead author of the study, at a press conference announcing the results.

Under the Paris climate agreement, nations are working to keep global temperatures within 2 C of their preindustrial levels, and within 1.5 C if at all possible. Research suggests that the effects of climate change — melting ice, rising seas, more extreme weather and so on — will be worse at 2 C than at 1.5 C, and worse still at higher temperatures. These targets are an attempt to limit the consequences of global warming as much as possible.

Yet studies increasingly suggest that the 1.5 C target is looming closer and closer.

The world has already warmed by more than a degree Celsius since the start of the industrial era, which began about 150 years ago. A landmark U.N. report on climate change, released last month by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned that the 1.5 C mark could be reached within two decades.

The new study, published by four researchers from University College London, paints a similarly urgent portrait. But it looks at the future from a different angle. Instead of calculating the emissions consistent with a 1.5 C target, it calculates the amount of fossil fuel reserves that must go unused.

The study started with a carbon budget of about 580 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. That’s based on an earlier IPCC report, from 2018, focused on the 1.5 C target. (The newest report suggests a substantially smaller budget.)

The researchers then used a special model to simulate how the world’s energy systems might evolve over the coming decades to stay within that budget. For instance, the simulations suggest a rapid shift away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources. The model also assumes a substantial amount of carbon dioxide removal in the future — using various forms of technology to suck carbon out of the atmosphere.

Altogether, oil and gas production must decline by about 3 percent each year through 2050, the study found. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: THE FED AND THE FOSSIL FUELS: Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) introduced a bill to stop major lenders from financing fossil fuel projects and, eventually, companies. The bill would direct the Federal Reserve to bar big banks from financing new or expanded fossil fuel projects after 2022, thermal coal operations after 2024 and all fossil fuel companies after 2030. It would also make the Financial Stability Oversight Council consider contributions to climate change when assessing adding oversight to financial institutions. READ MORE