The False Narrative on Clean Vehicles

by Brian Werner (Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association) One of the most overwrought narratives in energy and transportation policy today is the idea that liquid biofuels and Electric Vehicles (EVs) are battling “American Gladiator-style” in a zero-sum game over the future of the domestic automobile market.

Predictably, this narrative is fueled - energy pun intended - in large part by partisan politics and special interest groups that either have a personal stake in securing total victory for their preferred transportation option or want to use the issue as a wedge in the next campaign.

As with most public policy problems, the solution to decarbonizing our transportation sector isn’t quite as black-and-white as this worn-out narrative suggests. The reality is we need a strategy that utilizes an all-of-the-above approach to level the playing field for proven technologies and fuels that have a track record of quickly lowering emissions. To successfully reach our carbon reduction goals, this strategy must also carefully consider current market and supply chain trends.

Shortly after his election, President Biden issued an executive order outlining a goal that by 2030 50 percent of all light-duty vehicle sales would be zero-tailpipe emissions vehicles (ZEVs). The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently doubled down on this goal by releasing a proposed regulation for tailpipe emissions that would guarantee that 67 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales are EVs by 2032.

As I wrote in our comments to the EPA on the proposed rule earlier this month, the rule effectively compels automakers to produce battery electric vehicles to the detriment of similar technologies that can achieve the same or better environmental performance. Utilizing low-carbon liquid fuels in existing vehicles can achieve greenhouse gas reductions faster than new EVs can displace the existing fleet.

There are currently 278 million registered cars, vans, SUVs, pickups, and motorcycles in the U.S., of which about 1.2 percent are battery or plug-in hybrid EVs. EVs accounted for 5.8 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2022. That means, under the proposed rule, a gap of 61.2 percent in EV sales needs to be filled in less than 10 years.

Such a rapid build-out of EV sales ignores the challenges associated with charging infrastructure availability, tax credit eligibility, consumer preference, critical mineral supply and demand, and battery range and performance.

According to data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the average age of vehicles on the road is approximately 15 years, and 16 percent of passenger cars and 32 percent of light-duty trucks remain on the road for more than 20 years. We need to seek carbon reduction solutions for the hundreds of millions of cars operating on liquid fuels today.

Instead of fighting to roll back or disincentivize these public and private investments, we should be pushing for a level playing field for all technologies and fuels moving forward, which will be the key to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. EVs and liquid biofuels can and should be working in tandem to provide consumers with low-carbon transportation options.

Our partners at the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) recently debuted the first-ever Plug-in Hybrid Electric Flex Fuel Vehicle, which offers the best of both worlds. The vehicle has a range of 430 miles given a full tank of E85 and a full battery charge. Additionally, it has been shown to reduce emissions by about 80 percent compared to a vehicle running on gasoline.

This doesn’t need to be a zero-sum game whereby EVs win only if ethanol loses, and vice-versa. This innovative technological solution that marries ethanol and electricity shows that the two can work together to offer consumers an environmentally friendly option that maintains flexibility and reliability. READ MORE

Excerpt from Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association: "As proposed, the rule notably deviates from the traditional technology-neutral approach that EPA has historically taken when setting greenhouse gas emissions standards for motor vehicles. The rule effectively compels automakers to produce battery electric vehicles to the detriment of similar technologies that can achieve the same or better environmental performance.

"Rather than giving automakers the flexibility to pursue innovative strategies for reducing emissions from the current and future light - and - medium - duty fleets through environmentally friendly, lower cost options like E15 and E85, the proposal tips the scale toward a single technology - electric vehicles," he said.

Werner said a level-playing field for all technologies and fuels is the key to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, adding that laboratory tests have shown that today's low-carbon ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent compared to gasoline.

"According to recent estimates and projections, internal combustion engine vehicles will still occupy more than half the light-duty vehicle marketplace by 2040. Incentivizing the use of higher blends of ethanol like E15 and E85 can immediately reduce carbon emissions from those vehicles.

"Moving forward, technology investments will ensure ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent on average by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050. Many production facilities are already utilizing or plan in the next three to five years to adopt a combination of technologies and practices that lower the carbon intensity of the ethanol produced," he said.

Lastly, Werner said the proposed rule falsely assumes that electric vehicles have a zero grams per mile compliance value, adding a proper lifecycle evaluation would include carbon emissions from power generated from coal or natural gas as well as high-energy and land use changes from critical mineral extraction.

"Ignoring the upstream emissions related to electricity generation and critical mineral extraction for electric vehicles creates an uneven playing field and risks undermining efforts to achieve our net-zero climate goals," he said.