The EPA Pushes Electric Cars, but They Won't Be a Majority for Years

(Scripps News/ABC10News) Even with tighter proposed emission standards and a broad push for EVs, most cars on U.S. roads will still be gasoline-powered in 2030. -- ... But new analysis suggests it's not likely to happen as quickly as expected — combustion engines will have the lion's share of U.S. roads for a while longer.

The EPA wants tighter pollution standards for cars, light trucks and heavy duty trucks that together would eliminate more than 9 billion tons of CO2 emissions through 2055. It would have the same effect eliminating all current emissions from the U.S. transport sector for five years.

The EPA finds that a switch to electric vehicles may be enough all on its own to reduce emissions by proposed levels. Targets could be met if 67% of new vehicle sales were electric by 2032.

But the auto industry, which is already trying to make half of new car sales electric by 2030, says the EPA's 67% figure an unrealistically high level of sales in such a timeframe.

Meanwhile, analysis from the Associated Press shows that even if electric car sales take off to that extent, some 80% of vehicles on U.S. roads will still be burning fossil fuels.

Regardless, the EPA hopes that by 2055, nearly half of transportation emissions will have been eliminated — and nearly all gas vehicles will be off the road.

The EPA plans to adopt its final regulations in 2024, after gathering feedback from the public and from stakeholders. READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Post: But even as the nation’s EV market appears to be teetering on the edge of an electric takeover, a hesitant American public — and a still-subpar charging infrastructure — could still hold the country back. A Washington Post-University of Maryland poll shows the current limits of U.S. enthusiasm for the new vehicles, with nearly half of adults (46 percent) saying they prefer to own a gas-powered car or truck. That compares with 19 percent who want a full-electric vehicle, 13 percent who want a plug-in hybrid and 22 percent who want a traditional hybrid vehicle.

Most technologies follow what is known as an “S-curve” for adoption: microwaves, smartphones, even gas-powered cars. First, the new technology reaches only a small segment of the population — new adopters and tech geeks. Then, engineers fix bugs, society builds infrastructure for the new technology, and suddenly adoption skyrockets. Usage can rapidly climb from just 5 to 10 percent of the population to up to 80 percent, where it often plateaus.

Part of the hesitation to go electric is driven by a partisan divide. Republicans are much more likely to want to stick with gas-powered cars — two-thirds of them say they prefer those vehicles regardless of cost. Democrats, on the other hand, are less attracted to running on gas; a quarter of them prefer gas-powered cars to other vehicles. There’s little partisan gap in ownership however, with 9 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans saying they own or lease a fully-electric car.

“Consumers want the same experience as driving an ICE vehicle,” Valdez Streaty said, referring to an internal combustion engine, or gas-powered, vehicle. “When I go to charge, I don’t want to have to wait four hours to charge.”

Americans seem aware of public charging’s limitations. According to The Post-UMD poll, 74 percent of Americans think that gas-powered cars are better for driving more than 250 miles — a range at which drivers would have to use public fast charging stations. (Even Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, who recently went on an EV road trip with a reporter from NPR, faced challenges finding places to plug in.) Gas-powered vehicles are also seen as better on purchase cost (66 percent) and convenience of refueling (75 percent) over EVs.

Supply chain problems could slow production of batteries and EVs themselves; meanwhile, the United Auto Workers have gone on strike, in part over concerns that the electric transition could reduce the overall number of auto industry jobs. READ MORE