Spinning ILUC Policy the European Way
by Robert Vierhout (ePURE/Ethanol Producer Magazine) It took the European Commission several stakeholder meetings, two public consultations and many more economic modelling studies to conclude that the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of biofuel demand are not that obvious. At least the opinions and results from over 100 documents on the topic are so diverse that a straightforward conclusion is impossible, except perhaps that there is no overall agreement on the effects. More study is needed was the recent conclusion.
…(M)odels are static and you can prove pretty much anything depending on what assumptions have been included in the model. The predictable consequence of this static analysis is that there will be long discussions on the output because of difference of view on the input. …The main flaw of the use of economic equilibrium models for trying to establish the land use effect of future biofuel demand is the inability to include in the equation the impact of politics and any given policy on supply and demand. READ MORE