Paths to a Capped Carbon Economy: 6 Ways We Can Really Make a Change

by Russ Freeman (Biofuels Digest) ... This vision of the future is one in which: Humans have multiple opportunities for a meaningful role in society, freedom to live where they choose and freedom to pursue their dreams based on a stake in the productive engines of a society in which machines do much of what was once considered work.

One: If excess atmospheric carbon is a primary cause of climate change and externalities associated with climate change are considered, then the value of zero net carbon substantially significantly ought-weighs the cost.

Two: Society needs to do more than achieve zero net increase in atmospheric carbon. Levels must come down substantially!

Three: The first two factors require government intervention to create market value for carbon reduction and ensure that such value is factored into private market investment decisions.

Four: Risk is an important consideration, at least over a transition period while carbon levels are drawn down, and disasters continue to threaten large sectors of the economy.

And finally: Sustainability requires execution of a transformation structured to support a future society, not one which sustains the past.

Positive Signs

There are some positive signs. For example, California leadership in a carbon cap transformation has stimulated nation-wide investment in zero-net-carbon products to serve State policy-driven markets. However, it is also clear that California can not do it alone. There is little benefit to the local market where the zero-net-carbon fuel is produced in the Midwest and shipped to the State for sale at higher prices it can command there. Thus, one should expect an eventual back-leash against zero net carbon products coming into California from other regions to command premium prices, unless there is a clear move toward similar carbon-negative transformation among other states.

If risk and local interests are considered, one need is to heed thoughts of Jennifer Holmgren (CEO, Lanzatech – at ABLC 2020) regarding approach and numbering up to scale. Her thoughts:

The economy of the future can be expected to be quite different. It is not likely that it will be achieved by tweaking old systems which are not working. It will also be less risky if centered on techniques which are implemented through a micro-network of smaller sized units.

This is because: (1) Such a microgrid network might be damaged but total wipe out by a disaster would be less likely; and (2) Multi-unit networked units allow each unit to address local priorities. As an example, municipal solid wastes provide a readily accessible source of carbon managed by local government. Wastes could be delivered to reprocessing centers that replace presently used landfills and transfer stations. Such centers could then be configured to transform carbon into food, housing, energy, or products such as renewable polyethylene.

So, in summary, the first step in achieving a desired future is to form a vision of that, including the sets of goals one wishes to achieve through creation of that future vision. Then such goals frame an action plan for moving from “what is” to “what should be”. These also lay a foundation for addressing financial interests, such as what benefits can come from a proposed investment in change. Some “type-of-thinking” examples are suggested as follows.

1. People: Live where they choose as they work from home and society increasingly turns old “jobs” into machine work leaving people free to pursue much different means of making a living.

2. Real estate: Work from home becoming mainstream will lead to repurposing large office buildings, commuter facilities which lose commuters as riders and parking slots which remain empty. This will free large blocks of center cities for repurposing into more people-friendly applications.

3. Markets: Goods will increasingly be acquired over the internet, electronic banking transformation is well on the way, mail is going electronic with Email and Twitter.

4. Governance: A great deal will also go electronic: IRS already encourages electronic filing of taxes and refunds are mostly by direct deposit; the Census now allows electronic reporting; Vote-by-mail will soon prove to be too cumbersome, and electronic voting is sure to follow. Other programs will also increasingly switch to electronic interface with electronic-transfer payment of fees and distribution of benefits.

5. Transportation: Significant changes will result from both electronic shopping and work from home. People’s interests will no longer be dominated by needs for a daily commute. Recreational use, vacation travel will become more important, Access to uber and mass transit will mean that people can look for convenience and/or more cost-effectiveness.

Of the freight side, driverless long-range trucking is more likely to evolve market area depots where local delivery vehicles are dispatched to deliver directly to consumers – more along the FedEx model. Look for such local delivery vehicles to go electric, with ships, trains and over the road big rigs providing a more limited market for synfuels to replace traditional fuels. Finally, a recent observation has been a switch away from large aircraft to an increase in small local carriers, with their smaller aircraft also switching to electric propulsion as batteries get better.

6. Energy: There is already a move to grid decentralization, and a shift away from coal as a significant fuel. Step one is switch to natural gas for base-load power with increasing use of solar and wind. The difficulty is that this approach is just a patch on the existing system. However, there is a parallel move to load based generation, as large power consumers tend to look to conservation and waste to energy systems. The author’s view is that there is significant untapped value in the waste to energy market. This has been hindered by historic experience with acid rain and other such impacts. However, modern waste to energy systems can meet the most stringent regulatory requirements. Another consideration is that wastes often degrade in landfills and dumps, transforming their carbon content into atmospheric methane, which has the worst impact on climate change. It such fugitive emissions are considered, waste to energy can become totally carbon neutral. In addition, wastes from the power-user source can fuel their waste to energy system which can enhance economics. Finally, the author has worked out a power swap relationship where the local energy provider gains green-energy credits in return for a backup power commitment that provides enhanced supply reliability for the waste to energy user. There are companies now looking for and helping large energy users capture the benefits of such waste to energy applications.

One other innovation has been interest in a large equity investor in decentralized grid application of waste to energy technologies. The goal is to develop clusters of small waste conversion units within a larger metropolitan area. Cluster financing can gain investors economy of scale in both capacity and finance, while also preserving for local energy providers service to key utility customers who might otherwise be scavenged from their systems as outlined above. READ MORE