New U.S. Retaliatory Tariffs Will Impact Ag

April 03, 2025

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by Carah Hart (Brownfiels Ag News) U.S. President Donald Trump says “kind, not full” retaliatory tariffs went into effect midnight for more than 50 trading partners, including China.

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The European Union has a 20 percent tariff and India has 26 percent tariff. There is a 10 percent tariff on other trading partners, including Brazil and the United Kingdom.

Ted McKinney with the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) says some of the tariff amounts aren’t surprising.

“I’m encouraged with the UK and Brazil. Although I think our farmers would have liked to have had zero, it suggests there might be an opening there to straighten out some trade.”

But McKinney says reciprocal tariffs are a new approach and the duration is important.

“If this is a forever thing, there will be a lot of hand-wringing,” says McKinney. “If this might be a temporary kind of thing, which he won’t telegraph, he won’t talk about the duration, maybe there’s some hope for change in the process, their tariff mentality, which could result in some kind of settlement.”

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Market analyst Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Group says it’s anyone’s guess how the grain markets respond.

“This isn’t like, we’re fighting with Canada and Mexico, the 24-hour fake tariff war we had, this one feels real.”

Canada and Mexico didn’t make the retaliatory tariff list.

Trump has also issued a new executive order, calling unfair trade an economic emergency. READ MORE

Related articles

RFA hopeful tariffs won’t stunt ethanol export momentum (Brownfield Ag News; includes AUDIO)
Farmers Look for Silver Linings As Reciprocal Tariffs Go Into Effect (AgWeb)
Ukraine's corn could benefit from US tariffs, analyst says (Reuters)
Trump Details Sweeping Tariff Plans: Trump Launches Reciprocal Tariffs on Most Trading Partners, Vows to Protect Farmers (DTN Progressive Farmer)
President Trump Targets Tariffs to Support Farmers (AgNewsWire)

Excerpt from Brownfield Ag News: The Renewable Fuels Association wants to ensure tariffs don’t stunt U.S. ethanol export momentum.

RFA CEO Geoff Cooper tells Brownfield there’s been dramatic growth the past decade.

“In fact, 2024 was a record year by far. So we of course want to protect those export markets and ensure that they remain open to our industry.”

He says RFA supports free and fair trade.

“So if one of our trading partners is going to put a tariff on U.S. ethanol or distillers grains or anything else we’re producing, we think it’s only fair that our administration, our country, considers taking reciprocal action to level the playing field.”

Cooper says exports are vitally important to the U.S. ethanol industry and RFA will be working with the administration and trading partners to make sure opportunities continue. READ MORE; includes AUDIO

Excerpt from AgWeb: Glen Newcomer wants to be positive in the face of President Trump’s move to introduce a new round of tariffs on U.S. trading partners. But the northwest Ohio corn and soybean farmer says he’s concerned any looming trade wars could create more losers than winners in the agricultural industry, a sentiment shared in a recent AgWeb poll that found more than half of farmers don’t support Trump’s use of tariffs.

On the winning side of things, Newcomer thinks this moment might be a short-term opportunity for farmers in the market for equipment to go ahead and make their purchases.

“There are a lot of dealerships with inventory on their lots right now that was shipped and is sitting there, so that equipment is going to have a lower sticker price than equipment that’s going to be tariffed or have components that are tariffed,” says Newcomer, who farms near Bryan, Ohio. His advice to other farmers: “Get a look at the inventory and see if there’s anything there you need because the new equipment will continue to cost more.”

While that’s a possible silver lining, it’s about the only positive Newcomer can muster up.

“The expectation that farmers will get compensated, as they did in the past, for this trade difference – with all of the emphasis on reducing spending – I don’t know if that’s going to materialize,” Newcomer says.

History shows when trade wars break out, they don’t always play out for agriculture the way the federal government intends, leaving farmers caught in the crossfire. During the 2018 trade war with China, for instance, U.S. agriculture experienced more than $27 billion in losses, according to the American Soybean Association.

The association says the U.S. has yet to fully recover its former market share of soybean exports to China, the world’s No. 1 buyer of the commodity.

“I think there’s going to be some pain here for a while, and the biggest thing is these export markets. We have handed China to Brazil, and we’re just pushing them away more and more, and we’ve allowed this to happen,” says Chase Dewitz, who farms in central North Dakota, near Steele.

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Ag Barometer Shares Farmer Sentiments
Other growers expressed similar nervousness about tariffs and declining optimism in the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer for March. Forty-three percent of the farmers surveyed cited shifting trade policy as the No. 1 driver of their negative outlook.

In addition, farmers were negative about the outlook for the future of ag export markets. Five-year expectations for U.S. exports reached an all-time low for the survey, according to James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

How much economic pain farmers can absorb from the Trump administration’s decisions that impact agriculture depends on the individual’s financial position, Newcomer points out.

“If you are in a strong financial position, and you have strong working capital, you’ve got a lot of dry powder,” he says. “I think you’re just going to say, ‘I’m willing to absorb some of this for long-term gain.’ But if a person has to meet a budget, or they have strong commitments or obligations that they have to meet… and if taxes go up locally, for property and land, and with the inflation of everything else, and your budget is stretched, there’s going to be a huge concern out here for profitability,” Newcomer adds. READ MORE

Excerpt from Reuters: Ukrainian corn, a key element of the country's grain sector, could benefit from the tariffs imposed by the U.S., as it is able to partially substitute for U.S. corn if retaliatory sanctions are imposed, ASAP Agri analysts said on Thursday.

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"If key importers do end up imposing tariffs on U.S. corn, it will open a huge window of opportunity for alternative suppliers," ASAP Agri said in a statement.

"Ukrainian corn is in a strong position here: competitive pricing, stable logistics, and close ties with the European Union and Asian markets," it added.

The consultancy said Brazil is "first in line", but its harvest simply cannot cover all the demand and that is exactly where Ukraine "can step in and claim its share". READ MORE

Excerpt from DTN Progressive Farmer: Agricultural groups have been concerned for months about the possibility of an all-out trade war. Major groups wrote a letter to Cabinet officials on Tuesday looking for policies that would avoid punitive actions against U.S. agricultural exports.

Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs, president of Rural USA PAC, criticized the tariff announcement, pointing to not just the tariffs, but noting that Trump didn't talk about a desire to negotiate new trade deals, though Trump did press countries for market access in his talk.

"I believe the president believe the tariffs are going to help and that we're going to have more market access, but between now and then, it looks like a lot of pain, particularly in rural America," Gibbs said.

A critic of Trump's trade policies, Gibbs said Trump didn't say anything that gives businesses or farmers any stability or predictability moving ahead. Gibbs also raised concerns about reports that the Trump administration is already looking at potential aid payments to farmers.

"Farmers have a good rapport with taxpayers. Farmers are held in pretty high regard," Gibbs said. "For tax dollars to continue to have to come to farmers to keep them afloat, that going to eventually take a toll on the goodwill that farmers have enjoyed from taxpayers."

Bob Kuylen, vice president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, spoke about tariffs Wednesday afternoon on CNN before Trump spoke. Kuylen noted of the tariffs, "We're getting it from all sides. He's picking our best customers."

Kuylen cited wheat and corn exports to Mexico and soybeans to China. The U.S. also imports roughly 80% of its potash from Canada.

Asked about aid payments, Kuylen noted farmers are already receiving $10 billion under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) for financial losses in 2024.

"There are payments going out to farmers right now because they know we don't have any markets right now and markets are struggling," Kuylen said.

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While championing what he believes will be an economic renaissance, Trump also suggested Wednesday it might not come easy. "We're all going to have to go through a little tough love, maybe," the president said. READ MORE