New IPCC Report to Assess the Interaction between Global Warming and Land Use

August 06, 2019

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(Agence-France Presse/FirstPost) The overlapping crises of climate change, mass species extinction, and an unsustainable global food system are on a collision course towards what might best be called an ecological land grab.

Coping with each of these problems will require a different way of using of Earth's lands, and as experts crunch the numbers it is becoming unnervingly clear that there may not be enough terra firma to go around.

A world of narrowing options threatens to pit biofuels, forests and food production against each other. Experts who once touted "win-win" scenarios for the environment now talk about "trade-offs".

This looming clash is front-and-centre in the most comprehensive scientific assessment ever compiled of how global warming and land use interact, to be released by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Thursday.

Proposals to convert areas the size of India and the United States to biofuel crops or CO2-absorbing trees, for example, "could compromise sustainable development with increased risks — and potentially irreversible consequences — for food security, desertification and land degradation," a draft summary of the 1,000-page report warns.

Meanwhile, the fundamental drivers of Earth's environmental meltdown — CO2 and methane emissions, nitrogen and plastics pollution, human population, unbridled consumption — continue to expand at record rates, further reducing our margin for manoeuvre.

Case in point: to have at least a 50/50 chance of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius — the temperature guardrail laid down in a landmark IPCC report last year — civilisation must be "carbon neutral" within three decades.

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Slashing carbon pollution remains the surest way to curb climate change, but — absent a sustained crash of the global economy — that can no longer happen quickly enough to singlehandedly keep global warming in check.

This harsh reality has put a spotlight on two ambitious schemes that would cover millions of square kilometres of land with CO2-absorbing plants.

Nearly all Paris-compatible climate models slot in a major role for a two-step process that draws down carbon by growing biofuels and then captures CO2 released when the plants are burned to generate energy.

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The new IPCC report, for example, outlines two scenarios based on the reasonable assumption that the world will continue to be dominated by "resource-intensive consumption patterns," as least in the coming decades.

Capping global warming at 1.5 C under these circumstances would require converting some 7.6 million square kilometres (km2) — more than double India's landmass — to BECCS. Even if temperatures were allowed to climb twice as high, the report concluded, biofuels would still need to cover some 5 million km2.

A second proposal unveiled last month calls for blanketing an area equivalent to the United States (including Alaska) with new trees, nearly 10 million km2.

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His calculations, according to several climate scientists, appear to assume that every tonne of CO2 stored in replanted trees would be a tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere. In fact, the ratio is 2:1 due to the nature of Earth's carbon cycle, which vastly reduces the scheme's projected benefits.

In addition, it takes decades for trees to reach their maximum CO2-absorbing potential, as the authors themselves point out.

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"It might sound like a good idea, but planting trees in savannahs and grasslands would be damaging," Kate Parr and Caroline Lehmann from, respectively, the Universities of Liverpool and Edinburgh, commented recently in a blog.

The landscapes of lions, giraffes and vast herds of wildebeest cover more than 20 percent of Earth's land surface and can be as rich in biodiversity as tropical forests.

They are also home to a billion people, many of whom grow crops and raise livestock.

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"We project that under 'business-as-usual' growth, 9.8 billion people by 2050 would require 56 percent more food relative to 2010," said Fred Stolle, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University and co-author of the UN-backed report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future. READ MORE

Statement from Solutions from the Land (SfL) in response to the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (Solutions from the Land)

UN panel recommends eating less meat and more vegetables to counter climate change (Washington Examiner)

The U.S. Is Losing Its Wild Places Fast (Our Daily Planet)

IPCC Land Report Draws Optimistic Response from NACSAA Leaders (North America Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance)

Biofuels could be an option to meet energy demands (Khaleej Times)

Excerpt from Solutions from the Land: This is an important scientific report for policy makers that confirms what we know to be true: sustainably managed farms, ranches and forests, coupled with food system reforms, are critically important pathways for combating climate change and achieving other sustainable development goals. The report confirms the vision that SfL has been advancing for years: working lands can offer the keys to a more sustainable existence.

"The IPCC Land report released today recognizes the near-term solutions that well managed farms, ranches and forests can deliver at scale to combat climate change," said SfL Co-Chair Fred Yoder. "We look forward to working with our partners across the globe in advancing adaptation and mitigation strategies that address climate, food system and biodiversity goals."

Thanks to technology, innovation and hard work, America's farms can sequester carbon, capture methane emissions and produce renewable natural gas, as well as grow feedstocks used to produce low carbon liquid transportation fuels, and harness the sun to produce zero carbon wind and solar energy. Livestock producers using sustainable grazing practices can improve food security by producing much needed animal protein, often on land unsuitable for other uses.

The report makes clear that there are no "silver bullet" resolutions to the challenges posed by a changing climate. While there may be some tradeoffs - as in every endeavor worth pursuing - if changes are made correctly, our nation's lands can be a major solution platform for producing food, feed, fiber, energy and a host of ecosystem services.

"Farmers need to be able to focus on their capacity to feed the world. Society needs to focus on the will to feed everyone," said fellow SfL Co-Chair AG Kawamura. "Shifting from food to feed to fuel will let us utilize what might otherwise be 'waste' when production efforts fall short. Our diversity is the toolkit that maintains the capacity needed to meet our production and sustainability goals."

The current financial outlook for U.S. agriculture is grim, with farm income battered by some of the nation's worst extreme weather events and a growing trade war with key markets. Providing greater ecosystem services does not come without cost to struggling operations. With the farm economy struggling to regain profitability, the IPCC report underscores the need for policies that incentivize and reward farmers, ranchers and forestland owners for. delivering what the world needs - solutions from the land. READ MORE

Excerpt from Our Daily Planet: A recent report published by the Center for American Progress and the Conservation Science Project reveals the massive degree to which the United States has slowly but surely losing its natural landscapes — forests, grasslands, deserts — to roads, houses, pipelines, and other development. According to the report, from 2001 to 2017, an entire football field worth of nature was destroyed every 30 seconds – this is equivalent to almost nine Grand Canyon National Parks. Over this period of just 16 years, 24 million acres of natural land have been eradicated from the United States. READ MORE