Navigating the Future Cost of Mobility: Learning the Lessons from the Recent Past

by Philippe Marchand (Transport Energy Strategies) ... For instance, in terms of the cost of mobility, mighty regulatory decisions like a complete ban of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) from sales as early as 2035 loom in the very near-future and may have quite an impact on this essential element of the modern life. No one can seriously imagine mobility will have morphed that much within the next ten years or so.

When the early thinkers of electromobility naively expected the electric revolution would create a brave new world of frugal, light, shared, non-elitist cars, 2023 already abounds in carmakers’ ads for large and heavy electric SUVs and light trucks with impressive ranges beyond 1,000 kilometers between recharges, promising hefty margins to car manufacturers.

Neither is it likely our suburban and exurban model of housing will evolve enough to make commuting between home and work redundant, despite a higher recourse to homeworking and some decentralization of public and private activities away from crowded metropolises.

Electromobility supporters continue to disregard range anxiety of today, caused by limited battery autonomy and limited availability of the recharging infrastructure, an uncomfortable situation that should improve as time goes by. They also disregard the significant cost premium ....

Studies abound showing the production of green electricity, wind- or solar-based, is getting cheaper, lower than for all other sources, biomass, fossil or nuclear, disregarding the additional cost of extra infrastructure to connect wind and solar electricity to the customers via existing grids.

The question is rather when will electricity be low-carbon enough to justify an all-out usage of electricity in human activities, transport included. In the meantime, ....

Electromobility makes sense in dense urban areas, inner cities, first and foremost. On the other hand, individual houses, where you can recharge your EV in your own garage at “household” electricity price conditions, cheaply in other terms, are few and apart in dense urban areas, the housing standard being apartments, with the car parked in the street.

Guess what happened in the second half of 2022 in Paris? The cost of curbside recharge doubled in a few months, on average, ....

This is begetting another call for public support, this time to guarantee cheap electricity to any EV user.

If solid alternatives, like low-carbon liquid fuels, exist, other solutions than full electromobility may make sense, at least cohabitate for some time. READ MORE