Major Trump Administration Climate Report Says Damage Is ‘Intensifying across the Country’

November 23, 2018

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by Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney (Washington Post) Scientists are more certain than ever that climate change is already affecting the United States — and that it is going to be very expensive.

The federal government on Friday released a long-awaited report with an unmistakable message: The effects of climate change, including deadly wildfires, increasingly debilitating hurricanes and heat waves, are already battering the United States, and the danger of more such catastrophes is worsening.

The report’s authors, who represent numerous federal agencies, say they are more certain than ever that climate change poses a severe threat to Americans' health and pocketbooks, as well as to the country’s infrastructure and natural resources. And while it avoids policy recommendations, the report’s sense of urgency and alarm stands in stark contrast to the lack of any apparent plan from President Trump to tackle the problems, which, according to the government he runs, are increasingly dire.

The congressionally mandated document — the first of its kind issued during the Trump administration — details how climate-fueled disasters and other types of worrisome changes are becoming more commonplace throughout the country and how much worse they could become in the absence of efforts to combat global warming.

Already, western mountain ranges are retaining much less snow throughout the year, threatening water supplies below them.

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The National Climate Assessment’s publication marks the government’s fourth comprehensive look at climate-change impacts on the United States since 2000. The last came in 2014. Produced by 13 federal departments and agencies and overseen by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the report stretches well over 1,000 pages and draws more definitive, and in some cases more startling, conclusions than earlier versions.

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The report finds that the continental United States already is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was 100 years ago, surrounded by seas that are on average nine inches higher and being racked by far worse heat waves than the nation experienced only 50 years ago.

But those figures offer only the prelude to even more potentially severe impacts. The report suggests that by 2050, the country could see as much as 2.3 additional degrees of warming in the continental United States. By that same year, in a high-end global-warming scenario, coral reefs in Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific territories could be bleaching every single year — conditions in which their survival would be in severe doubt. A record-warm year like 2016 would become routine.

Key crops, including corn, wheat and soybeans, would see declining yields as temperatures rise during the growing season. The city of Phoenix, which experienced about 80 days per year over 100 degrees around the turn of the century, could see between 120 and 150 such days per year by the end of the century, depending on the pace of emissions.

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Deaths from temperature extremes could take an economic toll of $141 billion per year in the same year, while coastal property damage could total $118 billion yearly, researchers found.

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Of course, mitigating climate change would also mitigate this damage, by as much as 58 percent in the case of high-temperature related deaths, the report finds.

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The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report, which examines all of North America (not just the United States), finds that over a decade, greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil fuels declined by 1 percent per year. The result is that while North America emitted 24 percent of the world’s emissions in 2004, that was down to 17 percent in 2013. This occurred in part thanks to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, the growth of renewable energy and the swapping of coal-burning for natural gas. READ MORE includes VIDEO

FOURTH NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT (National Climate Assessment/GlobalChange.gov)

Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (Carbon 2018/GlobalChange.gov)

Trump administration releases report finding ‘no convincing alternative explanation’ for climate change (Washington Post)

National Climate Assessment Confirms We Have to Act (Environmental and Energy Study Institute)

Federal report sounds alarm on growing impact of climate change (The Hill)

Federal report: Climate risks, damage rising across U.S. (E&E News)

Without Immediate Action, Climate Will Prove Disastrous for Agriculture & Forestry Sectors (Environmental and Energy Study Institute)

Fourth National Climate Assessment (USGCRP)

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C: Chapter 4, Strengthening and implementing the global response, (IPCC)

Excerpts from Environmental and Energy Study Institute: "How many wake-up calls do we need? Every new National Climate Assessment has built on the previous one, confirming that climate change is already happening, and that we need to act," Werner insisted. "Time is running out. Unfortunately, the Trump White House is moving in the wrong direction, despite the warnings of its own scientists, and the calls for action from both sides of the aisle. Sadly, the fact that the Administration released this important report on the Friday after Thanksgiving clearly shows its desire to squelch its impact."

The U.S. National Climate Assessment begins by stating, "Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities." And it concludes that "the evidence of human-caused climate change is overwhelming and continues to strengthen, that the impacts of climate change are intensifying across the country, and that climate-related threats to Americans’ physical, social, and economic well-being are rising." In this, the report echoes the findings of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released on October 8, which found that the world has just 12 years to dramatically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions if we are to avoid irreversible changes.

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The report divides the United States into 10 regions to better analyze how different geographical and climate zones are being affected by climate change (in particular, the new NCA looks at the impacts that have taken place since 2014, when the previous National Climate Assessment was released). In addition to evaluating the risks from climate change on these sectors and regions, the report also showcases success stories and includes two chapters on how climate change risks can be avoided or reduced, by cutting emissions and by adaptation. EESI has placed climate adaptation at the center of its work, with our Building Resilient and Secure Infrastructure briefing series. READ MORE

Excerpt from Environmental and Energy Study Institute: With regard to the bioeconomy – climate change is a double-edged sword. The use of sustainably grown and harvested biobased feedstocks can help mitigate climate change and recycle carbon, but growth of the sector would also be severely hindered by unchecked climate. The report makes special mention of the carbon storage potential of biochar, as well as the use of crop residues for biofuels and other biobased products, but also mentions that crop residues must be harvested sustainably, so as to not negatively impact soil carbon and greenhouse gases.

At the same time, both the IPCC and the International Energy Association (IEA), acknowledge the necessary role that biobased fuels, power, and chemicals will play in decarbonization, particularly for harder to decarbonize sectors, such as fuels, petrochemicals and heat. According to the IPCC’s most recent assessment, utilization of biofuels and biopower will likely depend on ‘right sizing’ biobased solutions for countries and regions, based on sustainable feedstocks and land management.

They also predict that bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration (BECSS) will be necessary to manage carbon in a 1.5 or 2 degree scenario. Near term areas where the bioeconomy can immediately help mitigate and sequester greenhouse gases include; long-lived wood products, such as cross-laminated timber, the use of waste-carbon from industrial processes for biofuels, the utilization of wastes and other low-carbon feedstocks for renewable fuels and power, and the creation of biochar from wood waste. Unfortunately, there are few policy mechanisms that are helping these alternatives compete with established carbon-intensive industries. READ MORE