Limited Biofuels M&A Activity in 2019, Stage Set for Potentially Busy 2020

by Bruce Comer (Ocean Park/Biofuels Digest) Biofuels Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity in North America was subdued in 2019. Only four operating biodiesel, ethanol and advanced biofuels plants were sold during the year. These four acquired plants were relatively small with a combined capacity of only 133 Million Gallons Per Year. No large-scale, operating biofuels plants changed hands – which is rare for the biofuels M&A market.

The rest of Biofuels M&A activity in 2019 generally involved sub-scale, idled or non-operating plants, along with technology assets. Ocean Park tracked four deals for non-operating ethanol and biodiesel plants that had a combined capacity of 193 MGPY. There were other salvage deals that were not included in the analysis. In advanced biofuels, two plants traded along with three deals for technology assets.

Several factors slowed biofuels M&A in 2019 – an oversupplied, low margin environment, policy uncertainty, limited capital availability and an absence of active buyers. Ocean Park tracked several broken sales processes.

US ethanol producers were plagued by a glut of product and the lowest margins since 2008. According to Iowa State University’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, operating margins for US ethanol producers averaged just $0.08 per gallon in 2019.

Thin margins forced several ethanol plants to curtail or cease production. Some of the industry’s largest players idled their capacity. Some of the more notable idled or shutdown plants included:

Low margins prompted strategic buyers to delay or curtail M&A activity. This buyers’ market drove down valuations.

Following a banner M&A year for biodiesel in 2018, biodiesel M&A in 2019 was limited to idled, non-operating, or sub-scale plants. Both the number of plants and the cumulative production capacity that changed hands were near five-year lows. Of the four transactions during the year, three were for non-operating plants. The only other acquisition was for a sub-10 MGPY operating plant.

US biodiesel producers faced a challenging environment in 2019 – no collection of the 2018 BTC proceeds, no clarity for the BTC credit and the encroaching competition from renewable diesel.

Similarly to ethanol producers, several biodiesel companies cut production due to low margins. Some of the more notable companies idling or shutting down included the following:

Advanced biofuels saw limited M&A activity during 2019. Two plants traded in 2019. The three other deals involved technology or intellectual property.

North American Biofuels Outlook for 2020

Regulatory: After a rocky, nearly two-year period of uncertainty regarding the BTC, the biodiesel industry reached a significant milestone in late 2019 when the BTC was reinstated retroactively from its expiry in January 2018 through December 2022. This multi-year extension eases near-term regulatory concerns and could prompt more investment and M&A in biodiesel. Small Refinery Exemptions to the Renewable Fuel Standard, granted by the Environmental Protection Agency, remain an unknown variable that could continue to hurt demand.

Ethanol: High production volumes, trade dispute and policy changes limiting demand created major pressures for plant owners in 2019. If these headwinds continue into 2020, look for continued plant idling or distressed M&A activity. A few larger players might return to the M&A scene, lured by the prospect of attractive valuation levels for plant assets.

Biodiesel: Due to the reinstatement of the BTC, many producers will collect windfalls. In the near-term, many biodiesel operators could have the capital to restart, operate or acquire plants.

Renewable Diesel: Given the wide profit margins, the market expects more renewable diesel to come on-line over the next year or two. Currently, 882 MGPY of renewable diesel capacity is under construction in the US.

Advanced Biofuels: The advanced biofuels industry is waiting for a technological breakthrough. Several innovative companies, including Red Rock, Fulcrum BioEnergy, and LanzaTech are building plants that will utilize new feedstocks.

Given the limited M&A activity for operating plants in 2019, it will not take much in 2020 to top this past year in deal activity and value. READ MORE