Futurist: Battery-Electric Trucks Are a 'Fantasy'

by Josh Fisher (Fleet Owner) BEVs could have their day, but if the industry’s focus is on decarbonization, fuel cells are trucking’s future, according to a transportation futurist, who laid out the case for hydrogen. That's an argument also backed by ATRI and Tier 1 suppliers.

Transportation futurist Gary Golden told fleet leaders gathered here (New Orleans) for Solera Outlook 2022 why he believes hydrogen will win out in the race to power their electric trucks and personal vehicles.

In the energy and transportation world, there is a debate between “pure electrification” and decarbonization, he said. The former focuses on electrifying everything—from transportation to manufacturing. “Decarbonization says we’re going to try to electrify as much as we can—but we can’t deny the role that molecule fuels play in the world,” Golden explained. “Molecule fuels, chemical bonds, deliver 80% of the world’s energy."

Hydrogen fuel-cell trucks are the most decarbonized freight vehicles, according to a recent American Transportation Research Institute report. “Battery-electric trucks are only about 30% cleaner than diesel trucks,” Daniel Murray, ATRI SVP, said during a breakout session at Solera’s first user conference since expanding its fleet solutions through several recent acquisitions.

During his keynote speech that morning, Golden said the future of EVs is about the motor, not the battery. “How we deliver the electricity to that motor is of debate,” he explained. “But it’s the motor that defines the EV.”

“Not today, but in a mature manufacturing world, fuel cells will always be cheaper because they don’t have the mineral requirements that batteries do.”

Murray noted that building an electric truck is less green than producing diesel equipment. “Electric trucks are six times more polluting than a diesel truck,” he said. “Why is that? You need cobalt, lithium, nickel, manganese to make these lithium-ion batteries. And that’s very expensive to mine out.”

Class 8 BEVs are limited to 250 miles with the largest batteries, according to ATRI’s research. The battery’s weight and size reduce freight capabilities, too, Murray noted. The replacement batteries, which Murray said could cost as much as a new diesel tractor, would need to be replaced every four to seven years.

But futurist Golden doesn’t buy that infrastructure can be built out to support commercial or consumer battery charging.

He said the future of heavy-duty trucking energy is a fuel-based electric motor. “There will be EVs built for the next 10 to 15 years, maybe longer for short-haul. But we need fuel cells because it’s less weight and there’s more space for cargo and cabin capacity."

“If you want the signals, you don’t look to see what Elon Musk is saying. You look at what the Tier 1 system integrators are building,” Golden explained. “From 2023 to 2028, all of them are bringing hydrogen fuel cells online.”

The first regional hydrogen stations will either produce the fuel on-site or deliver it by truck. Eventually, cities would have high-pressure pipelines, which Golden said would be the easiest, safest way to fuel hydrogen stations. READ MORE